Even the most optimistic Bengals fans probably didn’t see them win the Super Bowl in Joe Burrow’s first season after an ACL tear, so expectations are a bit higher this season. Given the youth of the team, a big step back would be a big disappointment, although there is reason to believe that last year’s success was not sustainable enough.
Write down: 10 – 7 (9)
BCP: 27.1 (7)
YPG: 361.5 (13)
Pass YPG: 259.0 (7)
YPG Rush: 102.5 (23)
PAPG: 32.6 (20)
RAPG: 25.6 (19)
2021 Fantasy ends
QB: Joe Burrow QB7
RB: Joe Mixon RB4
BP: Jamarr Chase WR5, Ty Higgins WR24
TE: CJ Uzomach*TE19
*No longer on the team
Number to know: 555
That’s how many passes the Bengals made last season, 20th overall in the league. With Burrow finishing #QB7 despite missing the game and being on the offensive side, he was clearly one of the most effective quarterbacks in the league. In fact, he may have been in the most effective quarterback in the league, ranking first in yards per attempt (8.9) and third in touchdowns (6.5%).
Playing offensively with dynamic playmakers like Chase and Higgins obviously helps, and Chase’s ability to excel in any circumstance played a huge role – the rookie had six plays for at least 50 yards, five of them touchdowns. Burrow had 12 completions at least 50 yards with eight touchdowns on those 12 completions, both of which were league-leading—Matthew Stafford was the only QB with more than seven 50-plus yard passes or four such touchdowns. It wasn’t just the league’s best performance last season, though – Burrow is also one of only two QBs to hit a whopping eight touchdowns for 50-plus yards in the last five seasons, while no QBs have, at least in the past. . the decade had just as many endings of that length.
In other words, we probably shouldn’t expect a repeat of the efficiency that Barrow enjoyed last season, so he’ll probably need a volume boost to make up for it. It’s reasonable to expect this, but it’s not a fact: Barrow did concede goals more often in the playoffs, but an increase from 32.5 to 35.5 attempts per game is probably not enough.
2021 off season
1. (31) Duxton Hill, DB
2. (60) Cam Taylor-Britt, CB
3. (95) Zachary Carter, Delaware
4. (136) Cordell Walson, T.
5. (166) Tysen Anderson, CBC
7. (252) Jeffrey Gunther, OLB
OL Lael Collins, OL Ted Karras, OL Alex Kappa, TE Hayden Hurst
DL Larry Ogunjobi, TE CJ Uzomah
0 carries, 0 RB targets, 15 WR targets, 63 TE targets
Chris Towers Predictions
|QB||Joe Burrow||PA: 593, YD: 4330, TD: 33, INT: 13; RUSH — ATT: 38, Yard: 132, TD: 2|
|RB||Joe Mixon||VEHICLE: 264, YD: 1110, TD: 11, TAR: 47, REC: 42, YD: 317, TD: 1|
|RB||crotch||VEHICLE: 64, YD: 276, TD: 3, TAR: 24, REC: 21, YD: 155, TD: 1|
|WR||Ja’Marr Chase||TAR: 158, REC: 101, YD: 1212, TD: 9|
|WR||Ty Higgins||TAR: 161, REC: 105, YD: 1099, TD: 8|
|WR||Tyler Boyd||TAR: 110, REC: 66, YD: 831, TD: 6|
|TE||Hayden Hurst||TAR: 71, REC: 50, YD: 523, TD: 3|
The biggest question
Do the Bengals lean towards forward passing offense?
Joe Burrow is considered the No. 4 QB in the draft at the time of publication, which is pretty optimistic after finishing QB8 last season in points per game. Of course, expecting improvement from a young, talented QB is unreasonable, but the Bengals probably need to go more for Burrow to make the jump to that level given Burrow’s limited usefulness as a runner. They did shoot more, but Burrow averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game in four playoff games, which would still be pretty average. The weapons are certainly in place, but Burrow could be a disappointment for fantasy players if it doesn’t become a much more aggressive offense overall.
One sleeper, one breakthrough and one bust
Hurst hasn’t taken the lead we’d hoped since he was selected in the first round in 2018, and at 29, he’s running out of time by his first week. But he could be in the best position he’s ever been in his career, playing an elite QB along with the kind of defense you need to focus on. This situation led to a career-best rating of 49-493-5 for CJ Uzomah a year ago, so if Hirst can build on that, he has room to become a useful streaming option for Fantasy.
Higgins’ season numbers are looking pretty cool already, but he got even better when he fixed a shoulder problem that cost him two of his first four games. Since Week 12, Higgins has had at least 96 yards in seven of 10 games, including the playoffs, with six touchdowns – 94 catches, 1,621 yards, 10 touchdowns. Chase is the headliner on this offense, but we’ve seen flashes from Higgins that suggest he could also be one of the top receivers in Fantasy. If you’re expecting this passing game to be even better than it was a year ago, Higgins will likely take it one step further.
It probably depends on who you’re drafting with, but Barrow is currently the 4th ADP QB in the National Fantasy Championship draft as of June 21st, almost a full round ahead of Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray and even more than Duck. Prescott. Matthew Stafford. This is the #1 choice bet with elite weapons in the breakout season, but as I’ve detailed, there are plenty of reasons to bet on regression in 2022. Burrow should be good, but he’s not much of a runner, so if the Bengals are back in the middle of the group in passing attempts, you’re betting that he’ll fall behind Aaron Rodgers in efficiency every year. It may just be that, but it’s a terribly high comp. And if the passing numbers skyrocket… he’s probably the fourth best QB in Fantasy. This means that you are drawing it close to the ceiling.