The battle for the No. 1 spot in Sportzshala Analytics’ NBA Draft Predictions has never been so intense, with Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren and Duke’s Paolo Banchero nearly tied for first place.
Holmgren and Bunchero are projected to have a 51 percent chance of becoming an All-Star, higher than Anthony Edwards before his 2020 NBA draft pick, but slightly less than Cade Cunningham in 2021. have an average real plus or minus (RPM) of 0.96 in its fourth season, the first time in the model’s eight years that the top two leads had the same forecast. He is followed by Auburn’s Jabari Smith with a 48% chance of playing at All-Star level and an average predicted RPM of 0.68.
The Sportzshala NBA Draft Model predicts a range of outcomes for players entering the league. A full breakdown of the methodology can be found below. The shortened version is that the final model is based on a combination of five separate models built from:
• NCAA production adjusted for opponent
• International production adjusted per league
• Preliminary ranking of Sportzshala experts.
• AAU/mass crate stats
• Merge measurements
Bottom line: It uses a wide range of inputs to probabilistically predict the future performance of prospects about to enter the NBA.