What can we expect from the US men’s team after a 1-1 draw in their first match against Wales on Monday? Former Sportzshala Senior Fellow Paul Carr, now TruMedia Senior Director of Content and covering his fourth Men’s World Cup, Sportzshala FC host Dan Thomas and Sportzshala broadcaster and analyst Dalene Cuff offer their tips and betting suggestions for USA vs England second match.
After watching England’s six goals against Iran, it’s no surprise that they became favorites against an American team that barely held on to equalize against Wales in their first leg. With the odds for England (-175), USA (+470), Draw (+300), is there any chance that Gregg Berhalter’s men can keep up with the Three Lions?
Paul Carr: Of course! (The American says optimistically.) Since a draw is a worthy result for both teams, I think this game will be tense, especially in the beginning. The US has typically played this way in the toughest qualifiers, away in the octagon, averaging less than six shots and half the expected goal per game in the first half. And they showed no signs of a good counter-attack against Wales. Harry Kane won’t be 100 percent and Gareth Southgate also prefers a defensive setup in major tournaments. I’m leaning towards less than 2.5 goals at -120.
Dan Thomas: I would worry about how exhausted everyone looked at the end of the Wales game. I see only the victory of England, and a convincing one.
Dalene Cuff: I love Paul’s positivity and my heart says the same, but my mind says a draw would be healthy. Given the way the US team played and looked, Dan thought in the second half that a point would have been great. I will not play either side until I see the roster to confirm Kane’s start, US roster and any changes. It will be a tight match that the US will think it cannot lose. This may be their downfall but I like it under the same -2.5.
Given how strong the US team looked in the first half against Wales, would you risk a US win in the 1st half/England in the 2nd half (+1000) or any other props on the 1st half result/2nd half result half time?
Carr: It’s so dependent on the US lineup that I wouldn’t play without seeing the lineup. If Tim Weah starts again, expect the US to aggressively play long balls from above and immediately threaten England’s shaky defense. If Brenden Aaronson is in the game, the US will likely try to defend a little more. And if Gio Reyna starts, it could mean the US will try to get the ball. Or maybe a bigger tactical mistake is coming. However, this game can go in different ways, depending on each team’s approach.
Cuff: I was told that I talk too much… NO.
It’s still more likely that the US could make it out of this group, but did you see enough in Monday’s matches to roll the dice and actually win Group B (+800)?
Carr: That wouldn’t be the worst of the lot, given that a US win on Friday would mean a win over Iran would result in a group win, and even a draw might be enough. But at +500 odds on a US win over England, you’re better off just betting them on Friday and then putting some or all of that money into Tuesday’s game when you know exactly what the US needs to advance.
Thomas: I can’t write no again. So I will say that I do not believe that this is a bet that you should be making anywhere near.
Cuff: Given the situation with any other team not named USA, I would never bet them to win that group in this scenario…so take the emotion out of that one more time. Any money put on the US to win the group now is money wasted. To qualify at -125 is where you need to be.
Are there any other props from this game that you especially remember?
Carr: Given the expected conservative nature of both teams, I think +185 with no goals in the first half is worth a try. It’s not a lot of fun to bet, but we’re likely to see a lot of caution early on, and I think this game gets to the 0-0 break more than a third of the time.
Thomas: I really like Paul’s bet. Elsewhere, a yellow bet on Tyler Adams, who plays a lot with a heart on his sleeve at +330, looks like a brilliant bet.
Cuff: I actually really like both of the above rates, but I’ll also add both commands to the NO -115 result.