ATP betting, odds: Three spots Jannik Sinner could break out on tour this season
Italian star Yannick Sinner is gearing up for a great 2023 season. Prior to his current run at the ATP Rotterdam, Sinner was 8-2 on the year, including a win in France at the ATP 250 Montpellier, an indoor hard surface tournament. Ranked 14th in the world, this year could be a breakthrough year for the 21-year-old.
I noticed when I decided to drown Sinner in Montpellier, and, of course, I was wrong more than once. One aspect of the activity of a sports bettor is to understand when the old data does not match the current form. In other words, the market hasn’t caught up with Sinner’s potential. The trend has been reversed and I am now looking at future spots to potentially take advantage.
Let’s start with why. First, in 2022, Sinner changed his coach. He brought in Darren Cahill to help him progress. Cahill was formerly Simona Halep’s coach and commentator, whom colleague Brad Gilbert refers to as “The Killer”. Cahill’s strength as a coach is that he works with players who need to calm down. I think of him as a horse that needs to be tamed or tamed. Cahill teaches composure and when to show aggression and know when to restrain it. On a macro level, he teaches players how to win a match, not just a point.
The addition of Cahill to his team in July 2022 had an immediate impact on Sinner. He excelled at the US Open in August, narrowly missing eventual winner Carlos Alcaraz in a five-set quarter-final thriller. This comes after top grass pitch player Novak Djokovic fought for his money in the Wimbledon quarter-finals two months earlier, winning the first two sets and losing the match in five.
Sinner could win three ATP 1000 tournaments
Starting the year healthy, Sinner looks like he can reach his full potential. Sinner is ready to claim his first ATP Masters 1000 title.
Here are the three events I’m going to bet on Sinner’s potential win: two BNP Paribas Open hard court tournaments in Indian Wells in early March and the Miami Open in late March, as well as an ATP Madrid clay court tournament. The season of slow and medium hard courts fits well with the power of Sinner. With one clay title under his belt, Madrid plays faster because he is at a higher level, which works for his game because he hits very hard. As a player who has historically performed well on both hard and clay surfaces, this only adds to the number of events he can win.
Not to mention that Sinner feels good on the grass. He is the only player to take Djokovic to five sets at Wimbledon since Roger Federer in the 2019 final.
Now let’s talk about his game. Sinner has a strong base game and patience is what made the biggest impact. Prior to Cahill, Sinner tended to be too aggressive, forcing wrong shot choices and pulling the trigger too quickly. Now we see how his game develops and he takes his time to create a point to be in complete control of himself. Sinner definitely has the weapons to win big tournaments.
Is he ready to win the Major? The French Open is filled with the king of clay in Rafael Nadal, the best comeback in Djokovic and now, of course, Alcaraz. Djokovic is the king of grass at Wimbledon. If there was an opportunity, the US Open could be it. This is a discussion for the way forward. Until then, keep an eye out for Sinner to spend a year on the ATP 1000 circuit.