Week 4 of the NFL season ended Monday night with the San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5) hosting the Los Angeles Rams at Levy Stadium (Sportzshala, 8:15 pm ET).

After an exciting Sunday afternoon, we have another opportunity to bet on professional football if we so desire. So which plays do our analysts like best?

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Rate Analyst Joe Fortenbaughfantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody as well as Andre Snellings, Sportzshala Statistics and Information Seth Walder and football underdogs Aaron honey submit your best plays.

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Note. Lines from the bookmaker Caesars, unless otherwise indicated.


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Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5)
Monday, 8:15 pm ET, Levy Stadium.


The Rams enter this game as the underdog despite having a 2-1 record. What do you think about total and spread for this game and who do you like?

Fortenbo: I’m leaning towards 49ers, but I haven’t made it to the counter yet. I think it says that San Francisco was -1 on the forecast line last week and then went and laid an egg in Denver while the Rams won by eight on the road in Arizona. After all this, the line moves from SF -1 to -1.5? I’ll probably play here too as long as he stays north of 42. Both teams are 19th or worse in yards per game and I don’t see him getting much better against those respective defenses.

Schatz: This is another early game in which we have to ask ourselves what is more important: the information we knew before the start of the season, or the information we gathered in three weeks of play? Research shows us that pre-season preparation is still more important, even after three weeks. So even though San Francisco was the best team this season, the Rams looked like the best team based on preseason information — and we still have to assume they’re equal (or even marginally better) than the Photoniners. “. I would definitely take the Rams and glasses.

Snellings: I’ll take the Rams with glasses. The 49ers offense did nothing to make me think they should be preferred against a defense like the Rams. Jimmy Garoppolo has a QBR of just 29.2 in his first two games, and he has particularly struggled with the Broncos defense, which has a similar structure to the Rams defense he will face on Monday. According to FPI projections, the Rams have a 60.4% chance of winning and should actually have a 3.1 point lead.

walder: FPI is in a strong position here, in favor of the Rams at 3. FPI lost to San Francisco entering the season in large part due to Trey Lance, but greatly improved the 49ers when Lance was injured and the team turned to Garoppolo. The model knows who played when, but it’s not just that the 49ers ran into Lance. However, last week’s 11-10 embarrassment against the Broncos made an impression on the FPI, and once again shows a general disdain for San Francisco. Because of his conviction, I’m leaning towards Rams +1.5.

Capricious: Garoppolo looked wobbly under center for the 49ers last week as the offense faltered. He should bounce back against the Rams. During his career, Garoppolo averaged 258.2 passing yards per game against Los Angeles. However, I don’t believe it will be enough against a Rams team that won two games in a row after losing to the Bills in the first week. The Rams have to make up the difference. Overall, I’m leaning towards the negative. Both defenses will keep the score low in this division matchup. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals made 58 passes last week, but the Rams were able to keep them out of the end zone.


The Rams have had trouble reaching wide receivers this year as they have let six different wide receivers hit their overs in the last three weeks. What do you think of Deebo Samuel (54.5 receiving yards), Brandon Aiyuk (49.5) and George Kittle (43.5) doing the same?

Fortenbo: Aiyuk over 49.5 yards for me to play. He’s been attacked eight times in both of his last two games, and despite how bad Garoppolo looked in Denver last week, he’s still a more consistent passer than Lance at this stage. Aiyuk is also a major threat to San Francisco, which means we don’t need six tricks to cash this ticket.

Schatz: I feel that Jalen Ramsey will play better in the coming weeks as there is no reason to believe that he has suddenly dropped significantly. However, I don’t know if the Rams would want to use him specifically to cover for Samuel. There are weaknesses in the rest of the secondary Rams, so I prefer to outplay both Samuel and Aiyuk.

Snellings: I love it when Samuel goes over 54.5 yards on a Monday. He is Jimmy G’s safety blanket and he gets the ball all over the field. Last week, in a game in which the 49ers had just 10 points and Garoppolo had just 14.5 QBR, Samuel still set season records for targets (8), receptions (5) and receiving yards (73). Samuel also handled that Rams defense historically well, setting them on fire last season with five receptions, 97 yards and a touchdown in Week 10, four receptions for 95 yards in Week 18, and another four receptions for 72 yards and a touchdown in the NFC. Game Championship.

walder: My predictions are in line with the market here, so I don’t particularly care about any of them. The nearest is Kittle and under. I got it to average 40.1 receiving yards (although that’s the average, not the median), so if I were to set the line it would be a bit lower. However, I usually look for more difference from the baseline before betting on it. Thus, I would call Kittle under just skinny.

Capricious: Samuel, Aiyuk and Kittle are all set to succeed against the Rams defense. Samuel’s outfield runs this season have not been as successful as last year, and it would make sense for the 49ers to use him more as a threat in the outfield. Against the Rams, Samuel averaged 73.3 yards per game. In comparison, Aiyuk averaged 48.3 yards per game. Against the Rams, Kittle averaged 78.4 yards per game. All three players can top their respective player props by facing the minor player Rams. Garoppolo will be back to normal on Monday evening.


The Rams are currently -145 to win the NFC West despite being underdogs in Monday night’s game. The 49ers are right behind them with +180. Are you competing against the reigning Super Bowl champions to win the division, or does San Francisco (or even Arizona) stand a chance?

Schatz: For now, I would refrain from betting on NFC West. Our Playoff odds in Football Outsiders currently list all three of these teams worse than the odds you would get at most bookmakers. You would essentially pay a whig instead of getting any value. In fact, based on this year’s results and our poor pre-season projection for the Arizona Cardinals, we have the Seattle Seahawks with a slightly better odds than the Cardinals right now. This makes Seattle the only +EV bet to win the division, but that’s pretty unlikely – so what’s the point?

Snellings: I like Cardinals at +750. I see it as a competitive division where any of the three teams have a legitimate chance of winning. That’s why when one has a higher chance than the other two, it piques my interest. The Cardinals brought DeAndre Hopkins back after three more games, and when he returns, he will team with Marquise Brown to give Murray the most dangerous pair of strikeouts he has ever had. Last season, the Cardinals led the division for most of the year and won 11 games, placing them between the Rams and 49ers. I don’t see any reason why this season’s race wouldn’t be as close, so I’ll take the underdog odds.

Capricious: If I had choose one of these teams, I would still bet on the reigning champion Rams. As a result of line injuries, Van Jefferson’s absence, and sub-optimal play, the Rams look mediocre. This is exacerbated by Matthew Stafford’s inability to mend relations with Allen Robinson II. These factors contributed to their slow start. Over time, the Rams will get better, and Odell Beckham Jr. could return in November or early December. Los Angeles is still the team that wins the NFC West. However, I agree with Schatz that I would prefer not to bet on this division at all.


What is your best bet on a Monday night game?

Fortenbo: I like Cam Akers to 54.5 yards in the snatch plus reception. He’s only averaged 3.5 yards per carry this season and has only caught two passes in three games. Now he’s on the road, facing a defense that’s only averaging 2.8 yards per carry this season (the best in the NFL). It’s not really a recipe for success.

Schatz: While Akers had 12 carries (and only four for Darrell Henderson Jr) last week, they had the same number of snaps, so I don’t believe Akers will come back rather than a carry sharing situation. In addition, San Francisco is ranked third in the DVOA this year. So I’ll take Akers less than 43.5 yards in this one.

Snellings: Again, I really like Samuel over 54.5 yards. In addition to the reasons I mentioned above, since last year Samuel has had over 54.5 receiving yards in the last four regular season games (and 11 of the last 15) he has played in which Garoppolo has been the starting quarterback. And in his three games with the Rams last season (including the playoffs), he averaged 88 yards per game against them, passing over 54.5 yards in every game.

walder: I’m going with Cooper Kupp less than 93.5 receiving yards. Basically, it’s the least fun bet you can make in football, because every time you worry about Kupp’s goal – and let’s be honest, it’s probably getting closer. However, there must be a number you are willing to bet against Kupp, and according to our Sportzshala Analytics predictions, we are in that zone. We only have Kupp with 80.3 receiving yards, so I’m going to lose to Kupp whether I like it or not. I also take Leonard Floyd for 0.25 bags (+340 on DraftKings). I just ran the weekly bag model…