All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know about Warriors-Mavericks 3

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Don’t overreact: It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Mavericks are tying the fate of their season to their ability to hit 3-pointers (56.7% of their shots were hit from downtown), and with that comes extreme variance. What does it do? This opens a window for value in the game. In two games, Dallas has as many under-20 quarters as over-30 quarters (3), so watch for straight lines after Maverick’s standout quarter (in either direction).

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– Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

game of the night

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Golden State Warriors to Dallas Mavericks
9:00 pm ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Line: Mavericks (-3)
Money line: Warriors (+130), Mavericks (-150)
General: 218 points
Predicted BPI: 224.6 points
BPI Win %: Mavericks (67%)

Questionable: Andrew Wiggins (ankle)

Note. The BPI measures take into account players who are eliminated but assume that questionable players will play.

Notable: The Warriors hit three games in a row, recovering well from a seven-game stretch where they only hit once.

Best bet: up to 218 points. The Mavericks play very differently at home than on the road. In the playoffs at home, the Mavs were staunch guards, allowing opponents to score just 93.5 points per game in six games. The pace slows down, and the number of possessions is reduced. In their six home games, the Mavs and their rivals have averaged 198.8 points per game and have not surpassed 214 points in any game so far. The Warriors can score anywhere, but they’ve only scored 101 and 95 points in their last two playoff road games. — Snellings

Best bet: Stephen Curry under 26.5 points. I return to the well again. Curry scored just 21 points in Game 1 but exploded with 32 points in Game 2. It was Curry’s best scoring record against the Mavs this season, having only averaged 20.2 points per game in his previous five games on 39.6% from the field and 34.1. 3p%. In Dallas, the Mavs defense dominated the playoffs. It seems likely that Curry will return to his regular game against the Mavs, well below the 26.5 mark. — Snellings

Best bet: Curry over 26.5 points. Curry’s 46th postseason game of 30 or more came in Game 2 against the Mavericks. He tied Mavericks legend and future Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki for 11th most playoff games in league history with 30 points. Curry might have the added motivation to put on a show with Nowitzki, most likely tonight. –– Eric Moody

Best bet: Jalen Brunson over 23.5 points + assists. In Game 3, the Mavericks will be more consistent in chasing the Warriors in the paint. For that, Brunson and Luka Doncic will be crucial. Averaged 25.5 points per game and 4.2 assists at home during the playoffs, Brunson played well. He must reach or exceed these numbers in Game 3. — Capricious

Best bet: Reggie Bullock over 11.5 points. The 21 points and six triples he scored in Game 2 were his most in a playoff game. In the first two games of the series, Bullock played more minutes than anyone else due to his ability to play both ends of the court. Bullock would benefit if Doncic and Brunson were more consistent in the paint in Game 3. This would give him more shooting opportunities. In the 2022 playoffs, Bullock averaged 11.1 points per game. — Capricious

Best bet: Luka Doncic over 41.5 points + assists. Doncic had 42 points and eight assists in Game 2. However, he had 18 potential assists. So far, Wiggins has done an excellent job of defending Doncic in this series. However, on this occasion, Wiggins could have slowed down due to an ankle injury. For the Mavericks to win Game 3, they need to bring in other shooters, and I believe that will happen. In the 2022 playoffs, Doncic averaged 29.5 points per game and 8.3 assists per game at home. Today it can surpass these averages. — Capricious