The Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers game has been rescheduled for Sunday night in Week 11, giving fans the opportunity to focus on the key AFC West game. The Chiefs lead the division 7–2, two games ahead of the Chargers 5–4, and enter the game as 5-point favorites. The slope also shows the highest number of games in a week at 52.
So what can we expect in terms of Sunday night rates?
Rate Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulgum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks as well as Erin Dolanfantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody as well as Andre SnellingsSportzshala Statistics and Information Seth Waldercolumnist for Sportzshala Jason Fitz and football underdogs Aaron honey provide your best games to match.
Note. Lines from the bookmaker Caesars, unless otherwise indicated.
The Kansas City Chiefs are 5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers ahead of the key AFC West game on Sunday Night Football. Kansas City won the first game between these two teams in Week 2 and currently leads the division by two games. What do you think about the spread and total of this game (-5.52) and who do you take?
Schatz: Although the Chiefs only beat the Chargers by three points back in Week 2, I take Chiefs and give points in this game. We expected the Chargers to be in the top 10 this year. Instead, they are now just 24th in the DVOA, well below the Chiefs. The Chargers are suffering from injuries on both sides of the ball. Joe Lombardi’s offense seems to have castrated Justin Herbert, keeping him from shorter shots in part because the wide receivers he throws deep are mostly injured. The Chiefs’ running play might not be good enough to really take advantage of the Chargers’ weak defense, but it probably won’t matter because the Chargers offense just can’t keep up with Patrick Mahomes.
Snellings: Chiefs -5. Schatz has handled the injuries and shortcomings of the Chargers’ offensive players this season well. Plus, the Chiefs have beaten both the 49ers and Jaguars convincingly over the past three weeks, both games in double-digit wins. The Chargers lost last week to the 49ers and were smashed by the Jaguars earlier this season. Add an eye test to the breakdown of the scouts and their performance against regular opponents and it seems like the Chiefs are on a different level than the Chargers right now.
Capricious: My recommendation is to Bet on the Chiefs. Kansas City is second with 423.1 yards per game and first with 30.0 yards per game. The Chargers’ defense is vulnerable on the ground and in the air, putting them in 12th place in total yards per game. The Chiefs are 15-6-1 against a spread in their last 22 away games against a team with a winning home record. The Chargers are 0-3 against a spread in their last three home games.
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Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs remain top hitters in the NFL despite losing Tyreke Hill in the offseason. Mahomes has found new receivers to target in the passing game, including rookie Kadarius Toney, Juju Smith-Schuster (out Sunday), Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Mekole Hardman and, of course, Travis Kelsey. They face a Chargers defense that has a string of injuries and is averaging 25.3 points per game. Mahomes’ props are 2.5 TD passes and 290.5 passing yards. Do you like that he continues to build his MVP case on Sunday night, or could the Chargers defense slow him down?
Capricious: I will go with Mahomes over 290.5 passing yards considering he has eclipsed that number in five consecutive games. Like I said above, I know the Chargers have weak run defense, but that just doesn’t feel like Kansas City’s style of suddenly switching and getting heavy when the Chargers’ pass defense also has holes.
What’s your favorite Sunday night bet?
Capricious: Isaiah Pacheco all time top scorer (+575). After last week’s performance, the Chiefs must continue to rely on Pacheco. He played in 55.5 percent of Kansas City’s offense Sunday against the Jaguars and finished with 82 yards on 16 attempts. Clyde Edwards-Heler didn’t get a single rush or goal and only played four snaps. In what Vegas expects to be a scoring game, Pacheco is well positioned to find an end zone against the Chargers defense for third in yards per game (146.8).
What’s your favorite Sunday night prop?
Capricious: Marquez Valdez-Scantling 44.5+ receiving yards (-117). In the absence of Juju Smith-Schuster and Mekol Hardman, Valdez-Scantling should see a steady stream of targets from Mahomes, who threw for 300 yards and four touchdowns against the Jaguars last week for the 12th time in his career. This breaks a tie with Ben Roethlisberger for sixth most games in league history. Valdez-Scantling has passed 44 receiving yards in six games this season. Although he’s only averaged 4.78 goals per game so far, Valdes-Scantling is averaging 17.0 yards per reception.
Schatz: Austin Eckeler 43.5+ receiving yards (-117). Kansas City is only 26th in the DVOA compared to running backs as wide receivers, allowing an average of 51.2 yards per game (opponent-adjusted). The Chiefs’ run defense has improved this year, so short passes will be the best way to get the ball from Ekeler and let him do something.