Betting tips for Super Bowl LVII: Top picks and props
The biggest sports betting event of the year has finally arrived as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs face off on Sunday in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. Both the Eagles and Chiefs have been in the Super Bowl in the past five years, with Kansas City last in a major game in 2021. The Eagles won their previous Super Bowl by defeating the New England Patriots in 2018.
Rate Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulgum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks And Erin Dolanfantasy and sports betting analyst Eric MoodySportzshala analytics Seth Walder and football underdogs Aaron honey will provide their best games in the game, props and more.
All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Kansas City Chiefs – Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 50)
February 12, 6:30 pm ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona.
Super Bowl LVII is here. Caesars bookmaker opened this matchup as a Pick ’em, but the Eagles are now 1.5 points favorite. Who do you like and why?
walder: Eagles -1.5. I’m very glad I picked the Eagles for both of their games this postseason. But at this time? It’s close. At the end of the day, I can’t get past this: The Eagles line-up is simply better. Defensively, their passing rush is an unforgiving force, and they have the best pair of cornerbacks in the league. I can’t stress the last part: no team has made it harder for the opposition to open than the Eagles, according to our receiver tracking metrics, and that’s crucial against a Patrick Mahomes-led offense. Offensively, the Eagles aren’t as strong as the Chiefs, but I’m confident in Philadelphia’s ability to effectively handle the ball in Kansas City and win by three to four points.
Schatz: Chiefs +1.5. This match is so, so close and I’d rather play props and total than pick a side in a game that’s basically 50-50. But if I was forced to choose a side, I would choose the Chiefs. It’s just the belief that the offense is more consistent and predictable than the defense, and the quarterback’s play is the most important part of that. The Chiefs have the best quarterback in the game. This is one tie-break. The second tie-break gets one and a half points. I doubt the game comes down to one point, but I’d rather have it than not have it. The third tiebreak is that the extra week before the Super Bowl improves what makes Andy Reid a great coach—game planning and player preparation—not what makes Nick Sirianni a great coach, like his game decisions.
Fulgum: If it was absolutely necessary for me to choose a side, I would play Eagles -1.5. It’s never comfortable betting against Patrick Mahomes, but the Eagles’ dominance on both sides of the ball, the consistently positive expectation taken by HC Nick Sirianni, and the Chiefs’ injury problems all point to me having to play ” Philadelphia”. I want to love Mahomes and the Chiefs, because very rarely he turns out to be an outsider, but in this case, I think it is justified.
Dolan: Eagles money line (-125). I won’t mess around with that tight spread. It’s such a close matchup and relatively low juice to take the Eagles to the moneyline. When I say close, the Eagles and Chiefs have the same stats, including the playoffs (16-3). This is the first Super Bowl between teams with the same number of points in a game (546). They also have the same number of All-Pro options. With that said, Eagles is the complete package in this game. Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia offensive line have plenty of ways to take down the Chiefs. The Eagles’ defensive end is also much better, as the Chiefs’ minor team has been split up for the entire season. Kansas City’s best asset is Patrick Mahomes and there’s no denying it, but I’m taking the Eagles to get things done.
Capricious: Eagles money line. I’m with Erin and I prefer to keep the Eagles in the money line. In my opinion, two aspects of this matchup will lead to the victory of the Eagles. Patrick Mahomes’ mobility and the Chiefs’ offensive line will be tested by Philadelphia’s defensive front, which led the league in winning pass percentage during the regular season. The Eagles game with Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders will be very important in this game. The Eagles can set the tone early on by imposing their will on the Chiefs’ defense, which ranks among the last in the league in run-stop wins. In addition, Kansas City also lost fourth in rushing yards to quarterbacks. This Super Bowl is going to be a slugfest, but there’s a good chance the Eagles will win.
The total opened at 49.5 and the bet was increased to 50, and at some point even reached 51. Do you think this is over 50 or under?
walder: Under. As I mentioned in my secondary pick, I think the Eagles’ pass defense will be the deciding element here. If anyone can slow down the Chiefs’ passing attack, it’s James Bradbury and Darius Slay, assisted by Haason Reddick’s passing. The Chiefs’ defense played better in the postseason, and while I think the Eagles can do well on the ground, this kind of offense will take hours.
Schatz: Above. The Chiefs had the best offense in the league by almost every metric available. The Eagles were the No. 3 regular season offense by both DVOA and EPA per game. Both violations were rated higher than both defenses. Yes, the Eagles pass rush is fantastic, but they’re on par with the No. 1 pass-blocking line in terms of winning percentage. Another hidden reason: these teams like to play fast. Philadelphia and Kansas City finished first and third in situation-neutral pace this season. More games equals more points. If this game is as close as we expect, neither team will slow it down to finish the time with a big lead.
Capricious: Under. The Eagles need to use their running game to keep Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field as long as possible. As far as Philadelphia’s defense goes, the Eagles are also equipped with personnel capable of slowing down the Chiefs’ offensive and should be ready to shine on the biggest stage in the most important game of their professional career. The last 19 Super Bowls have been 11-8 under.
For some, the Super Bowl is a celebration of props. You’ve seen a board with over 2,000 unique results. What is your favorite prop you will be playing this Sunday?
Kezirian: Patrick Mahomes ran over 3.5 yards on his first try. This footing allows for the possibility of the quarterback sneaking up. However, Kansas City does not use Mahomes in the stashes given that he was injured a couple of years ago. Also, I understand that he has an injured ankle, but in two weeks it should be much stronger and he is not cutting corners in the Super Bowl. So if he is out of the pocket, he should get at least 4 yards.
Kezirian: Kenneth Gainwell over 11.5 receiving yards and over 34.5 rush+receiving yards. Philadelphia’s playoff stats are skewed because the Eagles won both games stunningly. However, we have seen teams have different runners in the postseason than in the regular season. It could be a manager who prefers a fresher player, or one that he thinks has a hot hand. Either way, Gainwell has speed and should be able to hit those marks.
Fortenbo: Gainwell over 1.5 receptions and over 11.5 receiving yards. Gainwell is the Eagles’ most dedicated backfield player facing the Chiefs’ defense, which has lost second in goals, in receptions and fourth in receiving yards to rival running backs this season. The Chiefs defense will be busy trying to pin down AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Godert and will likely let Gainwell slip a few times on Sunday.
Dolan: Mahomes will intercept. Mahomes had 12 interceptions in the regular season, but none in the postseason. Sunday will be a different story against an Eagles defense that is good at tackling. Philadelphia had 17 interceptions in the regular season, finishing third in the league. Mahomes has averaged 38 passes per game this season, and despite the ankle injury, I still expect him to throw tons of the ball, which means there’s room for error against this tough defense. Besides, for what it’s worth… Mahomes has thrown four total steals in his last two Super Bowl appearances.
walder: Less than 5.5 bags (+100). The total number of games in sacks is usually 4.5 or 5.5, so 5.5 offset to an over is a high line. But I don’t think it has to be. Without a doubt, the Eagles have a great pass rush. But sacks are primarily driven by the quarterback, and Mahomes is great at avoiding sacks. This season, he had the lowest sack-to-press ratio (11%) in the league. In addition, he plays behind the NFL’s No. 1 offensive line in passing block winning percentage. Hurts sacks more often than Mahomes, but he also plays behind a strong offensive line, and the Chiefs’ pass rush is not as effective as the Eagles’.
walder: L’Jarius Snead recorded 2+ interceptions (210-1 on FanDuel). Defensemen have recorded two interceptions just over 1% of the time in games where they have had at least 25 field shots this season (I note that there is a slight selection bias that downplays the chance of injury). According to NFL Next Gen Stats, no player in the entire league was attacked more often in the regular season than Snead, who had 105 defensive goals. Put that together and I think Snead is of little value assuming he plays.
Schatz: Jnumber of first player to score a touchdown over 11.5 (+105). Choosing here, you get Isaiah Pacheco and Jerich McKinnon for the Chiefs and AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith for the Eagles. You will also receive a Jalen Hurts run. But picking an over gives you Travis Kelsey, Dallas Godert, and the Eagles’ entire corps of running backs, plus a tiny chance for a touchdown in Patrick Mahomes’ scrum. Am I getting Kelsey and Eagles running back and positive odds?…