Week 4 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with a showdown between the undefeated Miami Dolphins, who were just in contention for a 21-19 victory over the previously undefeated Buffalo Bills, and the defending AFC champion Cincinnati Bengals, who finally took his first victory. last week, 27-12, against the New York Jets. Now that the season is in full swing, there are plenty of opportunities to bet on the game if you so desire. So, what moves do our analysts like in this match?

Rate Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulgum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks as well as Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody as well as Andre Snellings; and Sportzshala statistics and information Seth Waldercolumnist for Sportzshala Jason Fitz and football underdogs Aaron honey submit your best games for tilt on Thursday.

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Note. Lines from the bookmaker Caesars, unless otherwise indicated.


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Miami Dolphins to Cincinnati Bengals (-4, 47)
Thursday, 8:15 pm ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati.


It’s a matchup of two unexpected storylines this season as the Dolphins (3-0) are the only undefeated AFC team and the defending AFC champion Bengals (1-2) have struggled to start the season by beating only the Jets. Do you believe the Dolphins (16-1, Super Bowl win, 8-1, AFC win) are as good as their track record shows, while the Bengals (30-1 Super Bowl, 15-1 AFC) are as bad as they played both or neither? Is there a future?

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Fortenbo: Miami is good, but not as good as its track record suggests. The Dolphins made up a 21-point fourth-quarter gap in Week 2 against the Ravens and somehow passed Buffalo despite only holding the ball for 19 minutes and trailing 285 yards. It’s easy to imagine a world where Dolphins go 1-2 in three weeks, in which case we’re not even having this conversation. Again, this team is good. And the dolphins are really interesting to watch. But they are not as good as their track record shows.

Kezirian: It all depends on how you evaluate a 3-0 record. Are the Dolphins a legitimate playoff contender and are they capable of winning the Super Bowl if things go wrong? Yes, I believe they are. Oddly enough, they somehow remind me of last year’s Bengals. By no means do they have a higher power than the Buffalo, but the Dolphins should also not be heavily penalized for their victory, which is due to the stats. For their first touchdown, the Dolphins had possession after a Josh Allen strip sack and a recovery at the Buffalo 6-yard line. Such things happen. However, while I believe Billy should have won the game, they also missed out on key situations. At some point, we have to recognize this as a signature weakness, and not just a statistical outlier.

Schatz: No, I do not believe that the Dolphins are as good as their track record shows, especially since they are getting even more attention, given that there are only two unbeatable teams. Miami only 11th vs. Defense Adjusted Average (DVOA) after three games, although this is partly due to the fact that we do not add opponent adjustments until the end of Week 4, and the Dolphins have a difficult schedule so far. BUT small bet now that Miami will miss the playoffs, which is currently +310. Our football outsiders playoff chance simulation still leaves the Dolphins out of the playoffs 29.5% of the time.

Snellings: I think Bengals are better than their track record shows for several reasons. Their big moves in the off-season should have resulted in an entirely new offensive line; but they didn’t start the preseason, and Joe Barrow was having an appendicitis operation at the time, so they didn’t even train together. Then, to start the season, they faced teams with last season’s best guard and last season’s runner-up, and, perhaps predictably, the opposing defense dominated. However, the Bengals are only a game behind the top spot in the division, with a couple of special teams luckily trailing 3-0. As for futures, I still like Bengals to win AFC North more juice than at the beginning of the season (+325).

As for the Dolphins, I’m not sure they’re as good as their start, but their start may be good enough that they can do well in the future of the regular season. Check out their schedule: after this game, they’re playing at home for the Jets, Vikings, House Steelers, Lions, Bears, Browns (still before Deshawn Watson) at home, and Texans at home. The Dolphins are good enough to have nine or more wins in 11 games, which puts Miami is in a strong position to potentially win the AFC East (+230).

Fitz: Both teams have defined their seasons at close quarters. Bengals have found wild ways to lose and dolphins have found wild ways to win. I think we’re overestimating Miami’s fourth quarter against the Ravens and just forgetting the defensive struggles and accuracy issues we sometimes saw during the first three quarters. Yes, the Buffalo win was huge, but I’m still in wait-and-see mode for Miami and leaning towards a dropout. As for the Bengalis, their line of attack is still a problem. We can excuse this all day, but the reality is that the money spent hasn’t really paid off yet. I have to believe that talent will take over at some point, so I think the Bengals will end up better than their track record shows right now.

walder: I feel more confident that the Bengals are better than their stats show and the FPI sees more value in Cincinnati to make the playoffs right now. The model estimates the odds of Bengals at 56%, while Caesars Sportsbook suggests +118. Ultimately, the FPI did not lose faith in Cincinnati; in his view, having Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Ty Higgins on the same offense means it’s likely to be an effective group going forward, even after struggling in the first two weeks. Also, catching dolphins with a battered Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater in the center is a bit of a break.

Capricious: The Dolphins’ momentum from the end of last season has continued into this season (7-2 against spread in the last nine games). The addition of new head coaches Mike McDaniel and Tyreke Hill bolstered the Dolphins’ offense. Miami is as good as his track record shows, but the defense needs to be fixed quickly. A favorable schedule awaits the Dolphins after Thursday night’s game, with games against the Jets, Vikings, Steelers, Lions, Bears and Browns until last week. Tua Tagovailoa went from being a trade candidate to a legitimate MVP candidate. For futures I would look at Dolphins as division winner (+230), given that the Jets and Patriots are not legitimate contenders. AFC East will be reduced to Bills and Dolphins. Bengals are not as bad as their track record might suggest. They need to quickly get their revamped attack line up and running with a few new faces. Once that happens, we’ll see the Cincinnati team we saw last year.


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The Bengals are 4 points behind, up from 1.5 last week. Total 47. Do you like total or side in this match?

Fulgum: I love bengalis in this place. They are probably a little underrated due to their 1-2 start, and the Dolphins – while they are legitimately good – are probably a little overrated due to their 3-0 start. The main thing I want to point out is that Miami is going to Cincinnati for a short break. after The Dolphins played one of the most exhausting games we’ve seen in a while. During their victory over the Bills, the field was terribly hot and humid, with players on both sides visibly and physically exhausted. The Miami defense had 90(!) snaps on the field against the Buffalo offense… and the game didn’t even go to overtime. The Bengals offense would be wise to test the preparation of the Dolphins’ defense with deep shots against J’Marr Chase and Ty Higgins. I would have played for the same reason.

Fortenbo: I don’t play side or total, but I like it Bengals team total over 26.5 points.. Miami’s defense was on the field in brutal heat for over 40 minutes Sunday against the Bills and now has to travel to Cincinnati for an away date on Thursday four days later. This is a difficult place to overcome. Additionally, this division is averaging 6.3 yards per game this season, ranking it 27th in the NFL. Cinsi should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field.

Kezirian: i agree with joe Bengals Team Total. There are too many unknowns in Miami for me. Tua Tagovailoa’s injury, the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, and the Dolphins’ overall strength rating have left me reluctant to scoring now that the field goal line has risen. I am confident that Qingxi will be able to ignite the defense that has been burning at times this season. The Bengals didn’t exactly break out of the gate, but I think the situation in the short week is favorable.

Snellings: I temptation to play for this game. First, it’s a Thursday night game, and it’s usually a lower scoring match with a fast turnaround week. Secondly, both defenses have been playing well all season and the offenses have generally been fine. The Dolphins’ game against Baltimore has been the only exception so far, with their defense burned and their offense ripping a 28-point fourth quarter out of nowhere. Beyond this lean, the Dolphins allowed three full touchdowns in two games against the Bills and Patriots, while the Bengals’ defense only allowed three full touchdowns in three games. In other words, in the six joint games played by these two teams, five of them scored less than 47 points. There are plenty of offensive talents in this game, but a solid defense and fast turnaround could see this as another underperforming competition.

Tags: Bengals all the way, baby! i’m going to play Qingxi by -3 (for -140). At week 3, the Bengals finally looked like the running cats we saw…