The ninth week of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night between the Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) (-14, 45) and the struggling Houston Texans (1-5-1). The game certainly seems like an inconsistency on the pitch, but that’s a whole different story when it comes to a potential bet on a game. So what can we like in terms of betting on Thursday night’s game at NRG Stadium in Houston?
Rate Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulgum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks as well as Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody as well as Andre Snellings; and Sportzshala statistics and information Seth Waldercolumnist for Sportzshala Jason Fitz and football underdogs Aaron honey provide your best games to match.
Note. Lines from the bookmaker Caesars, unless otherwise indicated.
The undefeated Eagles travel to Houston to face the struggling Texans. According to our Sportzshala statistics and information panel, home underdogs with 12 points or more are 7-1 ATS over the past two years. Are you biting the Texans for cover or laying down two TDs?
Kezirian: Trends like these are good for context, but I wouldn’t blindly bet on something with arbitrary double-digit truncation. After all, we often discuss key numbers, so I think it’s more appropriate. For example, the numbers 14 and 10 matter. We just saw it Sunday night on the cover of Green Bay in Buffalo. I also think that each season has its own personality and for me this year we have three elite teams. Fili is one of them. So I don’t really care that Tampa Bay couldn’t cover the double digits against the Carolinas. As for this game, I would certainly put glasses before taking them. The Eagles are dominating, and I feel that prime time helps them avoid a flat spot against a weak opponent.
Schatz: It’s hard to take Houston against Philadelphia, but this 14-point line is too rich for my blood. The DVOA gap between these teams is huge, but it’s far from the biggest discrepancy we’ve ever seen at this point in the season. I would rather not play this spread, but if I have to, I would go with Houston.
Fortenbo: Party is hard pass for me, which is the most pathetic possible answer. And I want to make it clear that I know this. Because if you’re reading this right now, you’re thinking, “That’s very weak, Fortenbaugh.” I understand. But I’m not going to bet double digits on the NFL road on Thursday night. And I don’t support Texans because they are Texans. Thank God for the props!
Dolan: I agree with Joe. I stay away from spread. I’m attracted to the spread in the first half, but I don’t like the 7.5 figure yet. The Eagles were great in the first half, leading the league, averaging 21 points and being 7-0 ATS. The Eagles then trail behind with a seven-point average in the second half. It’s a short week for both teams. Eagles must roll. I just don’t feel comfortable throwing two touchdowns.
Fitz: Actually I’m with Doug on this one. The Texans aren’t just bad, they’re also easy to plan a game with. Last week, the Titans took the Raiders’ fast-paced approach and used it in a hyperdrive against that team last week, and it was so wildly successful that we didn’t even realize that Malik Willis was essentially being asked to do nothing about it. game. Sure, big point spreads seem nerve-wracking in the NFL, but in this case, it comes down to simple dominance across the board. The Texans will not be competitive in this game on either side of the ball. I expect the Eagles to cover.
Tags: A short work week won’t matter on Thursday night. I think we all agree that Philadelphia will win. The Eagles defense is epicly better with the addition of Robert Quinn, while the Texans are now dealing with a disgruntled WR in Brandin Cooke (because he was No traded) and Nico Collins is recovering from a groin injury. Thus, Philip Dorsett could potentially be the best option for Davis Mills in a passing game. Good luck with that. I don’t have to bet double digits, so I play in several ways. Eagles -3 first quarter (-120), Eagles -4 second quarter (-105), Eagles -7.5 first half (-110), Eagles over 29.5 points.
Snellings: Eagles -14. Short workweeks are hard to recover and plan games for, two elements that are a relative strength for the deep, in-form Eagles and a relative weakness for the Texans. As Fitz pointed out, scheduling is easy for the Texans because they are ridiculously bad at defending (the Texans conceded 147 more yards than the team that conceded the 31st most yards in the league, and that team, the Packers, played a full extra game. !). And the Eagles have one of the strongest multi-faceted rush attacks in the league. But unlike last week’s Titans, the Eagles also have a strong, multi-faceted passing offense that can act as a retaliatory move if the Texans try to sell despite the run. It just seems like an explosion is waiting to happen. I’ll dot the points.
Capricious: it hard to pick against Philadelphia in this game. The Eagles have won every game this season, but this is their biggest points gap. The Eagles are third in total yards per game (395.4) and points per game (28.0). Even Thursday night, Philadelphia’s defenses should be able to hold off a Texan assault that could do without Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins. The Eagles are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games Thursday night.
Jalen Hurts (+375) is the third favorite to bet on the NFL MVP. His TNF props are 238.5 passing yards and 39.5 rushing yards. Do you play either Prop or Hurts for MVP?
Fulgum: I would play almost any racing prop over a common against this defense of the Texans. They’re allowing 186 yards per game this season! I’ll take Hurts for 39.5 yards. He is averaging 57.0 YPG points on the road this season (three games).
Fortenbo: I would look at on a passing support before I played an over on a racing prop. This season, Houston has only allowed opposing quarterbacks to run 97 yards (eighth in the NFL), while Malik Willis has limited it to only 12 yards on five attempts. Not to mention I would bet on under, I just wouldn’t bet much on over if I did at all.
Schatz: Yes give me over the rushing prop of the Hurts also. Houston now has 19.0% DVOA protection, which would be worst ever measured if it held for an entire season. It probably won’t be that bad all year long, but Hurts should get an easy yardage mark from the Texans this week. I’m not a big fan of Hurts MVP support because I think narrative matters when voting for an MVP and the narrative is much more that the Eagles are a team success while the Bills and especially the Chiefs are run by Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. .
Kezirian: I wouldn’t bet that Hurts will win the MVP.. I think his only path is if the Eagles go 17-0. Allen and Mahomes have less of a chance and one of them is more likely to win the award. They carry their teams while the narrative of Herts is that he is one of several key contributors to Philadelphia’s success. He was outstanding, but unlikely to become an MVP. The next question illustrates why +375 is not enough for me.
Fitz: Overbacks on racing props have been good for me all season and this one is no different.. As Tyler mentioned, the numbers make it easy. Betting on the number of MVPs is a little trickier because it’s a subjective award, usually given to the best quarterback on the best team. Allen and Mahomes have significantly more momentum for the brand (and voters), so it will take not only a perfect season in Philadelphia, but a mistake elsewhere, in my opinion. Even think about how we cover the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bills on Sportzshala – the Philadelphia conversation is still more about shared talent helping the Hurts than the Hurts helping them. This mindset is hard to change in a short time.
Snellings: Hurts over 39.5 yards; hold on to the MVP foothold. As repeatedly pointed out, the Texans’ swift defense is terrible. And, unlike last week, when they knew Malik Willis would have a passing problem in his first NFL start, Hurts is leading a dynamic passing attack that the Texans should be held accountable for. I expect Hurts to be able to run early and often if he wants to. My biggest concern is that the Eagles are so comfortable with the game that Hurts decides there’s no point in risking himself to win. But I’m hoping by the time the game gets to that point, he’s already past the very achievable 39.5-yard plateau.
As for the MVP, I advocated betting that the Hurts would win the award in pre-season and early in the season, when you can usually get 15-1 or better odds. At +375, with strong competition from at least two others, I don’t see the value.
Capricious: I would prioritize Hurts passing yards over his rushing yard support. The Texans’ minor has potential, but Herts has even more potential to top 235.5 passing yards with receiving playmakers at his disposal. This season, he has surpassed his passing yardage in four of his seven games this season.
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Mercury Morris probably isn’t nervous yet, but Caesars posted a 17-0 record for the Eagles at 11-1. It’s worth it? If not, where do you see the first loss?
Schatz: I really think it’s time to start talking about this as an opportunity, especially given how easy Philadelphia’s schedule is going to be for the next two months. The Eagles’ odds of a 17-0 record just topped 5% in our Football Outsiders playoff simulations. However, now we have their odds around 16-1, not 11-1. So it’s not a very good value. By far the most likely loss for Philadelphia is Christmas Eve in Dallas, but subjectively I would pick Green Bay in week 12 as the first loss. The Eagles’ only weakness this season is run defense, and we just saw the Packers go over 200 yards against the mighty Bill…