Week 10 of the NFL season kicks off Thursday night with the NFC South between the 4-5 Atlanta Falcons (-3, 42.5) and the 2-7 Carolina Panthers. What can you expect in terms of Thursday night game betting?
Rate Analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulgum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks as well as Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports betting analysts Eric Moody as well as Andre Snellings; and Sportzshala statistics and information Seth Waldercolumnist for Sportzshala Jason Fitz and football underdogs Aaron honey provide your best games to match.
Note. Lines from the bookmaker Caesars, unless otherwise indicated.
The Falcons have been one of the amazing stories of the season, currently holding a 4-5 share of the top spot in the NFC South. In Carolina, they are the 3-point away favorite, not the 2-7 Panthers. Who do you like in this match?
Fortenbo: Carolina +3. How are the Falcons scoring 3 away away in this match? The tentative line for this showdown was Atlanta-1, which was released shortly before the Panthers lost to the Bengals and the Falcons lost to the Chargers. So why the 2-point adjustment on the 3 key? Also, when the two met just two weeks ago in Atlanta, the Falcons were bidding 4.5. That is -4.5 at home and -3 on the highway? That’s too high a number, especially considering the fact that in the aforementioned game two weeks ago, the Carolinas beat Atlanta by 72 yards, losing 3 points in overtime.
Tags: I love falcons in this place. Atlanta is very good on the ball and will run all over the Carolina defense that Joe Mixon and the Bengals just destroyed. The Panthers’ defense has been on the field for 40 minutes, and now, after a short week of work in rain and 25 mph winds, they will have to stop Marcus Mariota, Cordarrell Patterson and Tyler Allgaier. Carolina has yet to score a touchdown in the first quarter and has just three touchdowns in 50 offenses in the first half of games this season. I’ll put -3 with Dirty Birdsi will play them too (-1) in the first quarter, (-1.5) in the first half as well as over 23.5 team points.
Dolan: i would play Falcons team total over 23.5 points.. The Falcons are averaging 24 points per game, while the Panthers’ defense is averaging 25 points per game. These teams met on October 30 and the Falcons scored 37 points in overtime. Since then, the Panthers’ defense has ranked 28th in passing, 10th in passing, and 27th in total yards per game. The Falcons’ offense can add points to a tired Carolina defense.
Schatz: I’m going with Falcons -3 here, even on the road. These teams are roughly even on defense, with the Panthers 28th in the DVOA and the Falcons 29th. But there’s a huge gap in offense, with the Falcons in the top 10 and the Panthers second-to-last. Remember that offense is more predictable than defense, so not only do the Falcons have a big advantage, but that big advantage means more.
Capricious: I recommend rate less. When two great NFL teams play in the middle of the week, there is a lot of uncertainty. We have two sub-optimal teams playing Thursday night. In total yards per game, Carolina (30th) and Atlanta (25th) rank last. The Panthers are 23rd in points per game. This game can also depend on the weather. It is likely that the remnants of Hurricane Nicole will bring scattered rain and wind to Bank of America Stadium, which is an open-air stadium, so teams will not have protection from rain or wind. Under 4-2 in the Falcons’ last six games and 6-0 in their last six games Thursday, and under 7-3 in the Panthers’ last 10 games in the division.
At 4–5, the Falcons are tied with the Bucks for the division lead with eight games remaining. However, the Bucs are -220 to win the division and the Falcons are +320. Are they worth the bet?
Tags: I already made this bet two weeks ago. Atlanta has the second strongest schedule for the remainder of the season, and their fast-paced attack gets even more explosive with the return of Patterson. I’m not thrilled that a win over the Rams will turn the Bucks season around, I’m not thrilled about Andy Dalton’s offense, and the Panthers’ season can’t end soon enough.
Schatz: I think the Pirates are the clear favorites in this division. They still sit 10th in the DVOA despite losing, but our playoff chance modeling shows that value here with Falcons +320. It’s not very important, but we would put Sokolov closer to +240. Anita is right about the schedule; in fact, according to DVOA, instead of a win-loss record, the Falcons have the easiest schedule left, not the second-easiest!
walder: i would argue Falcons at +320. I agree with Aaron; Bucs are favorites, but not favorites to that extent. I don’t think just because Tom Brady led the comeback against the Rams that we should assume the Bucks were back: they were still struggling on offense for most of that game. Atlanta’s offense was simply better. Now going forward on offense, I think it’s close and the Bucks are much better defensively. But in one of Atlanta’s four shots, pulling it out? I would take.
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Is there anything in the props market that you play in this game?
Tags: I’m all for Patterson. He should have a monstrous night against that Panther defense. Patterson over 51.5 yards (-115) as well as anytime TD (even).
Dolan: Patterson rushed over 51.5 yards the right move in this match. The Panthers’ defense is 28th against running. The Carolina defense just lost five touchdowns and 153 yards to Mixon. Back on the field last week, Patterson made 13 rush attempts for 44 yards and two touchdowns. He’s passed that mark in two of the five games played this season, but keep in mind he’s surpassed his numbers against the Saints and the Seahawks. A couple of weeks ago, he didn’t play in an overtime win over the Panthers 37-34, but the Panthers allowed 167 yards in that game without Patterson on the field.
Snellings: I agree with the love of Patterson, but to change that, I’ll go Patterson rushed over 62.5 yards on a rush/reception. Patterson could top that by rushing alone as an explosive runner against a struggling Panther defense, but he’s also a great pass catcher/former wide receiver who can turn a single reception into over 11 yards.
Schatz: I agree that the Falcons will handle the ball a lot here and the only thing the Panthers are doing well is covering the No. 1 wide receivers where they are fifth in the DVOA. Drake London only had 31 yards in a game two weeks ago and I’m going to London to 39.5 receiving yards (-119) same in this game.
Capricious: Allgeier rushed over 31.5 yards. Patterson performed well against the Chargers on Sunday, but Algayer will continue to be heavily involved in the Falcons’ committee. He gained 99 yards on 10 attempts against the Chargers. The Falcons are averaging 33.7 rush attempts per game, and that trend should continue on Thursday, given the weather. The Panthers’ defense allowed for 139.3 yards per game, and Allgeier, who averages 4.5 yards per rush, could see 10 or more rushes against the Carolinas.