Home Fantasy Big-name stars to trade for now in fantasy basketball

Big-name stars to trade for now in fantasy basketball


“For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.”

This Newtonian edict may have caused the young, dateless me to sleepily teach eighth grade science. But whenever I’m through the quarter poles of a fantastic NBA campaign, Sir Isaac animates and shakes my frontal lobe with vision-setting regularity.

The dude under the apple tree wants to remind me that for every hot start there is an equally cold start. For every Lauri Markkanen (#12) there is Damian Lillard (#125).

The pool of players (approximately 150 top names in the Player Rater) should be thought of as a self-sustaining market. A market offering a limited amount of fantastic value. The player pool averages around 2000 Player Rater points.

It is an additive and subtractive cost pool. When one player registers an unexpected rise, the other player falls. In the fantasy basketball season, there are always the same and opposite reactions to score.

With the exception of NBA commissioner Adam Silver adding a 4-point shot as a promotion for President’s Day, there will be no sudden unexpected influx of additional production into the player pool. ABA does not enter this door.

The end value principle remains valid when it comes to a seasonally changing deal.

It’s in our trading jargon that we aim to add players at their lowest fantastic value, trade them at the highest, and avoid the other side of this dynamic at any cost. We want to win our trades; in fact, we need. We need to strengthen our team knowing that we benefit from other teams.

But at the same time, remember that there is a difference between needing to win a deal and needing everyone in your league to know that you won a deal. That’s what they call you “shark”. (And no one likes to deal with a loud and proud shark. Beware of managers who can’t hide their dorsal fin.)

You may know one or two managers who made only one-sided deals in their favor. I always wonder why managers keep dealing with famous historical sharks in their league. One-way deals are bad for the league as a whole. They blunt the vigorous competition of assholes in the free market.

Because such one-sided deals invariably hit the league’s trading market in the knee. Because this one-sided deal has set an impossible standard for rational trading market participants.

And for every shark there is a mark. The perpetually confused manager sharks are circling around when they need to steal some extra produce. A manager who chases hot takes. A manager who always trades players at the highest price and sells them at the lowest price. Is always. ALWAYS.

If you’re feeling a little bewildered after all that Thanksgiving tryptophan? Do not be afraid. The author is here to help you find the best fantasy meanings among famous stars.

Nikola Jokic, center, Denver Nuggets

It’s probably too late to permanently attach the “slow start” sticker to the Joker’s jersey. But based on growth? Jokic is technically the best candidate in any league.

However, it’s a little obvious. But I’m starting here to clarify a couple of points.

First, failure is relative. Relative to the player’s expectations, but also relative to time.

Jokic is currently ranked 7th in the season’s player rankings. Not bad, but for a player who went through all the pre-season ratings and became the universally recognized top pick in fantasy? Yes… sort of “unsuccessful” so far. When does the No. 1 player with overall expectations become seventh? By definition, Jokic tops this list.

Relative time is a key factor in this type of trading. Because timing is everything in a trade. A less experienced manager may only consider production for the season as a whole. Or even worse; according to game production.

When downloading an offer, you need to look at the time windows. Statistical snapshots.

Last 7 days. Last 15 days. Even a month. Because the manager controlling this player is affected by recent events; even if they don’t realize it. Managerial panic in fantasy basketball isn’t as noticeable as panic in fantasy football, but it’s there.

And the fear of getting value back in exchange for a struggling player… before he supposedly hits the bottom? This fear creates this panic. And that, as painful as it is to type this, you need to capitalize on it.

Jokic’s manager has invested heavily in Jokic’s services. Jokic’s ROI is disappointing. Look for moments where everything seems to fall apart for the player, and then lash out.

Two weeks ago? This is what the one-week window looked like for Jokic. A strangely unsatisfying night with 8 points and 14 assists… then three games due to COVID. Oh man, I’m burning up karma points to tell you this, but these are windows of trading opportunity.

Because… (closes eyes, blurting out in one whisper) A short-term injury or illness is the perfect time to open a trade.

CJ McCollum, PG/SG, New Orleans Pelicans

So, by now you should be able to recognize the dynamics. McCollum was in the middle of a sharp decline in the Mariana Trench. Then he was absent due to illness. He then entered the COVID protocols. It’s a cornucopia of subtractive reaction… a short-term window in which McCollum lost value.

But here’s another metric to evaluate in a proposal: utilization rate. And here’s the key: even he couldn’t hit the side of the barn with his jumper, McCollum’s usage rate was growing. Over the years, McCollum has subtly diversified his fantasy portfolio in such a way that now its value doesn’t live or die with his shot.

And when was McCollum traded to New Orleans? He kind of turned into a full-fledged Dejonte Murray. Meaning: He leads by statistical example. By demonstrating to teammates, coaches, and non-panic fantasy managers, he will find a way to succeed, regardless of field goal percentage.

Dejonte Murray, PG/SG, Atlanta Hawks

In the league on points? Murray is a moderate disappointment. Doing two rounds or so is below his ADP value. But Murray’s effectiveness holds up…only in less obvious ways. He is only one round below ADP in roto formats.

Which portends an opportunity for savvy managers to close the deal.

Volume comes and goes. Arrows may be striped. But proven efficiency connoisseurs like Murray know how to fuel their PER even when their shot isn’t working. Over the past 15 days, Murrey’s score has dropped to 41.3%. In the 15-game “total” picture, Murray averaged 18.7 points, 4.3 AST, 4.9 REB, 2.4 3PG and 1.6 STL. Even when Murray misses, he subtly weathers the storm. Because of his rebounding, his defense and the fact that a lot of his shot attempts were from downtown.

When evaluating players of this type, pay attention to their shot selection. How many of their field goal attempts are triples? If they make the right hits but just don’t fall in the short game window? This is a sign that there is a great opportunity to make an exchange offer.

Source: www.espn.com