The Buffalo Bills are looking to cement their reputation as the NFL’s top team on Monday night in their second week as they host Derrick Henry and the Tennessee Titans. It’s a rematch of an incredible Monday night game from last year when Henry rushed for 143 yards and three touchdowns and Geoffrey Simmons hit Josh Allen at the goal line on fourth down with just 22 seconds left in the fourth quarter.
Fast forward a year and things look very different. The scores are 1-0 and Super Bowl favorites while the Titans no longer have AJ Brown and are coming out of heavy upset from a week 1 loss to the New York Giants. Tennessee may seem destined to take a step back from last year. but the Titans are a very difficult team to predict. They could lose one week to the New York Jets and then smash the eventual Super Bowl champions on the road, just like they did last season. Considering how wacky Sunday was in the NFL, should we expect the unexpected in Buffalo today?
Below we will break down this match from a gambling point of view and look at line movement, over/under and player details to consider. First, here’s how you can watch the match on Monday.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Monday 19 September | Time: 8:15 pm ET
Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
TELEVISION: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (Click here)
To follow: CBS sports app
Chances: Promissory notes -10, O/A 47.5
- Titans: CB Christian Fulton (hamstring), RB Dontrell Hilliard (hamstring), OL Jamarco Jones (elbow) OUT; WR Kyle Philips (shoulder) QUESTION
- accounts: DT Ed Oliver (ankle) OUT; DT Tim Settle (calf) Dubious; WR Gabe Davis (ankle), CB Dane Jackson (knee) TBD
Buffalo Bills -10
On Monday, May 16, the Bills opened as favorites with 7.5 points. After losing to the Titans in week one, the line reopened with a BUF of -9.5 last Sunday night. The next day he climbed to BUF -10 where he stayed.
Choice: Bills -10. In my Week 2 Picks column, I chose the Bills to win but the Titans to cover. It’s easy to argue that a reliable road dog covers double digit spreads, but a couple of recent events have forced me to switch sides. On Saturday, the Titans ruled out #1 defenseman Fulton with a hamstring injury. Tennessee also ruled out Hilliard, who caught two touchdowns in the first week.
Allen has what it takes to protect this Titan defense. He has a powerful arm that can make the young corners of Tennessee look silly, and the mobility to move chains around when he feels it’s the best option. This game has never been considered the best week 2 game for me, but I’m leaning towards the score to score 10 points.
over 47 years old
The total opened at 52 on May 16, but began to fall shortly after. Last Sunday evening it reopened at 49.5 but started to fall again. On Wednesday it fell to 48 and then to 47.5 on Friday afternoon.
Choice: over 47.5. Both the Titans and the Bills failed to hit their overs in the first week, though Tennessee allowed the Giants to score 21 points in the second half — exactly the same number of points Buffalo scored in the second half against the Los Angeles Rams. opening of the NFL season. There’s no way I’m going to bet Under in prime time with two teams that can score on offense. You may question the new look of the Titans’ passing offense, but Henry is a home run hitter who can find the end zone from anywhere on the field. Tennessee hit an over in six of eight road games last year, the second most in the league. The bottom line is that I feel like the total has dropped too low. If that number were 52 or 53 it would make me think, but at 47.5 the tendency is to over.
Ryan Tannehill props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +159, Under -224)
Passage yards: 214.5 (over -108, under -127)
Pass attempts: 31.5 (over -127, under -108)
Completion walkthrough: 20.5 (Over -101, Under -135)
Longest walkthrough: 33.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -151, Under +110)
Running yards: 9.5 (over -137, under +100)
Tannehill over 1.5 passing touchdowns for the money looks intriguing, but you have to remember that last year he threw two or more touchdowns in just four games. However, he scored two goals in the first week against the Giants. Tunney’s passing yard line looks a little low, but I like it when he intercepts at -151. Another flyer I’ll take is Tannehill to race for at least 10 yards. He didn’t hit that mark last week, but has rushed for at least 17 yards in nine contests in 2021. In a prime time game when the Titans were the underdogs, one reading option could result in us getting an over. I like it.
In general, it’s hard to bet on Tannehill props. The recipe for an upset Titans win is probably that Tannehill will go into the red on most of these props, but if you’re a big proponent of bills, then Tannehill will have to air it to keep up. Truly a battle of different play styles.
Josh Allen props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (over -189, under +136)
Passage yards: 262.5 (over -117, under -117)
Pass attempts: 32.5 (over -121, under -113)
Completion walkthrough: 22.5 (over -137, under +100)
Longest walkthrough: 36.5 (Over -121, Under -113)
Interceptions: 0.5 (over +120, under -166)
Running yards: 40.5 (over -117, under -117)
Come on, get the better of Allen’s touchdown passes. If you don’t like betting -189, then throw it in the accumulator of the same game. I love Over on passing yards here. This is a solid line. I would refrain from the number of passing attempts and completions, although I have a slight inclination towards Fewer attempts. I don’t see any value in Allen’s interceptions, but the hasty yardage over is intriguing. Allen led the Bills with 56 yards in a week…