The fourth week of the college football season was a kind of evening. If you haven’t looked good yet, if you haven’t won the game, this has been a good week for you to do so. (Congratulations, State of New Mexico and others.) In the meantime, if you haven’t found your moment of negligent vulnerability, it probably has. Five undefeated teams lost as favorites and even Georgia looked mortal this time around.
Georgia looked like the perfect college football team for three weeks and opened Week 4 against Kent State with a 75-yard touchdown from their difficult endbut the Bulldogs quickly found themselves in a quandary, throwing several turnovers and leading just 19-13 at the end of the first half.
The Dawgs took the lead to win 39–22, but it was a disappointing result for the 45-point favorite and it reminded us of one of college football’s immortal rules (which we forget from time to time): anyone can stumble. or at least look bad on a given day. Georgia struggled with the spells of passive pass defense – only one sack and a higher-than-usual 58% completion rate allowed in three games – and sure enough, Kent State found the rhythm by completing 68% of their passes and moving the ball. better than expected. Throw in a couple of sloppy turns and the Daugs have a fight.
If a team is about to slip, we usually know how it will happen before it even happens. We often begin to understand a team’s worst flaws before they were actually worth it in the win column. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the worst flaws of the nation’s top teams in four weeks.
A fatal flaw for every CFP applicant
Below are 16 teams that are undefeated or have only one loss and have a 1% or better chance of making it to the college football playoffs, according to Allstate’s playoff prediction. Most or all of these teams will lose at least once (or more) over the next 10 weeks. Let’s talk about how this is likely to happen.
Record (result of the 4th week): 4-0 (defeated Vanderbilt, 55-3)
Ratings: second in AP poll, first in SP+, first in FPI
Current chances of achieving CFP: 84.7%
Fatal flaw: Bryce Young may not have enough help. Sure, if you watched Bama’s defense get set on fire by Quinn Evers at the start of the Crimson Tide’s 20-19 win over Texas in Week 2, you’d doubt the pass defense, but that’s really the only time the defense has was vulnerable this season. I’m a little more concerned about the fact that Bama doesn’t get many big plays from his passing game and is just good, not bigin terms of launch efficiency.