Corner Picks, soccer odds, best bets: Liverpool to top Manchester United, Juventus stay hot against Roma, more
Naples approached the weekend with a margin of 18 points Inter And Milanonly 14 matches left to play. While I refuse to celebrate until nothing is official, I agree that, short of a disaster the likes of which we have never seen, Napoli will win their first Scudetto since Diego Maradona donned the shirt in 1990.
I also agreed that the traditional Italian media, which has long looked down on the country’s southern teams, will try to play it down in every possible way. They mentioned how Napoli took advantage of a “bad year” in the league for Milan clubs and juventus“15-point penalty. They will ignore the fact that even without the 15-point penalty, Juventus will be 15 points behind Napoli, clubs with 10 Champions League titles.
They will do their best to downplay the achievement and I will enjoy every moment of it.
All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook.
Roma against. juventus
Date of: Sunday March 5 | Time: 2:45 pm ET | Look: Paramount+
Roma lost Cremona earlier this week. It was Cremonese’s first win in Serie A this season, but it was also Cremonese’s second win against Roma this year as they also knocked them out of the Coppa Italia (they also knocked Napoli out of the competition). However, I’m not sure that losing to Cremonese is worth pushing the panic button. Roma beat RB. Salzburg to stay alive in the Europa League and that match against Juventus is just around the corner. I assume that José Mourinho and his team have looked ahead.
However, I’m still not sure if Roma will play Juventus this weekend. Juventus are approaching full strength, just like the rest of the year. Paul Pogba returned to action in a 4–2 win over Turin earlier this week, while Juventus have won six of their last seven matches, only drawing 1-1. Nantes in the Europa League alarming run. We have seen Roma struggle to score against the best teams in Italy throughout the season and I don’t expect it to be any different this weekend. Choice: Juventus (+185)
Liverpool against. Manchester United
Date of: Sunday March 5 | Time: 11:30 am ET | Look: USA
Manchester United enter the weekend having won 16 of their 20 matches since returning from the World Cup break, with three draws and only one loss. It was a great series, but one thing that is rarely mentioned is that 14 of those 20 matches were played at home at Old Trafford. Two draws and a single defeat came in one of six away matches. In the Premier League, United have been much worse away. They have an expected goal difference (xG) of +11.1 at home and -0.7 away.
Then there’s Liverpool, a team that can’t be predicted from match to match, but a team that, like United, has been much better at home in the Premier League than away. They have an xG differential of +11.3 at Anfield compared to -0.9 away. In addition, while real Madrid after systematically thrashing Liverpool at Anfield in the Champions League a couple of weeks ago, Liverpool have played much better overall in the Premier League. You may be wondering why Liverpool have a slight lead in this match considering how seasons have gone for both clubs. Perhaps now you have a better understanding of why this is the case and why Liverpool are so valuable at this price. Pick: Liverpool (+140)
Southampton against. Leicester City
Date of: Saturday March 4 | Time: 12:30 pm ET | Look: NBC
I was very angry with myself earlier this week. I was thinking about playing Grimsby Town to beat Southampton in the FA Cup because I figured Southampton had a much bigger fish to fry (you know, this whole non relegation problem ) than in the FA Cup and he could have bet on the match. Then I changed my mind, because even Southampton at half speed must beat a League Two team (and a team that ranks 16th in League Two!). Oops.
I am now forced to hope to take advantage of the market’s overreaction to Southampton’s price in this match. It’s easy to forget that Leicester are still in danger of relegation and have lost an FA Cup match against Blackburn Rovers this week. Leicester lost three matches in a row and looked very bad defensively. Leicester have defended poorly away from home all season, and Southampton have had a much harder time breaking down at home (even if the results don’t reflect that). Maybe you want to bet that Leicester City will be the away favorite, but I don’t. Pick: Southampton (+170)
Weekend
We’re taking a slightly conservative approach this weekend with a three-leg bet. payment +135.
- Manchester (-210)
- Arsenal (-530)
- Inter Milan (-295)
|
Write down |
Units |
|
|
league game |
44-36 |
+14.11 |
|
Champions League |
5-3 |
+2.18 |
| General | 49-39 | +16.29 |
Source: www.cbssports.com
