Dynasty Fantasy Football Mailbag: Valuing Kyle Pitts, Stefon Diggs, D’Andre Swift and more
I never know for sure what answers I’ll get when I post a Dynasty Fantasy Football Q&A on Twitter. However, at this time of year it is likely that there will be questions about newcomers. And this time especially. a bunch of questions about the same guy or the same pick, Bijan Robinson in 1.01.
There aren’t many questions at all about who should be #1, just how aggressive the people chasing him should be. And to be honest, I have the same questions in a couple of my own leagues. So let’s start with a detailed description of what I would give Robinson.
Overpayment for Bijan
10 superflex teams. I have picks 2, 4, 6, 10 and 12 in the rookie draft. And also two 1s next year (probably 2 middle firsts). Is it worth it to pack any of these to get up to 1 for Bijon, or just wait and get 5 quality players. pic.twitter.com/1rdzqEni5C
— League 10 (@ChubbyThunder13) February 28, 2023
I currently have the 2nd and 3rd overall pick in my upcoming draft. I plan to take at least one Stroud or a young one in the draft. Do you think it’s worth trading to the first spade to get Bijan to pair him with one of those QBs? Or should I take another one at 3
— Mike Oxofloppin (@MikeOxofloppin) February 27, 2023
12 Team, 1QB, .5 PPR – placed 2nd in 2022
What packages are you willing to give up for choosing to upgrade to 1.1? Could you just stay put and take Gibbs and the best WR at 1.2+1.3 assuming 1.2 is in the deal?
The bench is full of guys that need to be cut apart from Dak, Dulcic and Kmet. pic.twitter.com/E80uVePnwK
— Greg Harrell (@DynastyGMan) February 27, 2023
Tell me honestly, should I have made this deal?
I got 1st overall pick
9th pick in round 2
24 1st pic.twitter.com/qqbnabae5u
— Wang in the North (@UpperKuntII) February 27, 2023
First, you can see the value of Robinson, in my opinion, in the league of one quarterback. Here. And if anything, I may be below consensus that it looks like he’s already RB1 in general. I can see the arguments for this, and have no real issues with my ranking Robinson as the third best player in the Dynasty leagues, behind only J’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. But let’s break down some of the questions above to get more specific…
I actually have CeeDee Lamb ahead of Robinson, so I don’t like this exchange at all. Although Robinson is younger, I actually think that Lamb should remain a productive player longer and I definitely expect him to be more effective in 2023. The question above is more interesting.
If I had finished second last year, I would have been much more interested in adding a spin that could make a difference. I would be delighted to drop 1.03 and 1.11, maybe even add a second round pick to the trade. If you had to give up 1.02, I would probably try to get by with two second round picks, but could be coaxed into 1.02 and 1.11 for Robinson.
The guy above this question is in the Superflex league. At the moment I prefer Bryce Young to CJ Stroud, but I would definitely try to trade that third pick for Robinson. I would be less excited about the 1.02 trade and another first for Robinson in Superflex because I really believe Young has the potential to provide a big advantage for the long haul in this format.
As for the main question, in leagues with 10 teams, I go after elite players more aggressively. I would give 1.02 and 1.10 and a second for Robinson. I’d rather give up 1.04 and 1.06 and seconds.
To sum up, call Bijan Robinson if you can. In Dynasty, it will cost you dearly, and if the landing spot is chosen correctly, it can cost you a first-round redraft pick as well.
Current dormant, future breakthroughs
Which of the players currently in your field of vision could you see in the near future in their position?
— Fantasy Island (@FantasyIslandff) February 27, 2023
This is a great question that I should probably answer at least once a year. Let’s have one for each position.
Sam Howell is in a very interesting situation. He has an elite receiver duo in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. He has rushing ability, as evidenced by his 828 yards and 11 ground goals for North Carolina in 2021. And now he has one of the most successful offensive coordinators of the past five years in Eric Binemi. If all goes well, Howell could go from minor to top 12 this season.
Running backwards is harder because most of the guys who go unnoticed are injured. But I don’t believe James Cook gets enough love. As a rookie, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and the Bills have already talked about increasing his role from 2022. Devin Singletary is a free agent, so this should help. Cooke was selected as a rookie in the first round and you can purchase him for an early rookie pick in the second round right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if he beats Isaiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson and Tyler Allgaier next year.
Josh Palmer is my favorite wide receiver slip/break. If Keenan Allen is released, Palmer could expect 125 targets in 2023. He’s shown occasional flashes last year, and is entering his third year in the NFL, a regular breakout season for wide receivers. Last year he scored 13 Fantasy points in six games, this year he could double that number if Allen leaves.
As for the tight end, I buy a few year two tight ends, but especially Greg Dulcic, Trey McBride and Cade Otton. I also really like Chigziem Okonkwo, but it seems to be already sold out everywhere I look for it.
Stephon Diggs window
When will I get off the Stephon Diggs train I’ve been riding for years?
— Stephen Skywalker (@Famos21) February 28, 2023
That’s a good question, and now is the perfect time in Diggs’ career to ask it. He will turn 30 in the 2023 season. Recent history has been mixed with receivers of this age. Davante Adams is about a year older than Diggs and still great. Guys like AJ Green and Allen Robinson seem to be hitting a wall. And you have to look at Diggs through both lenses.
If you are a contender, the risk of losing Diggs value to ACL or father time is worth the risk of potentially winning a championship this year or next. It’s probably past the point where you’ll get a lot more than 1st place in mid-2023 for it, and it’s just not worth sacrificing your window for.
On the other hand, if you are rebuilding, there is no doubt that you should be dealing with Diggs. The likelihood that it will fall off in the next year or two is too great to keep it through rebuilding.
A difficult choice if you are in the terrible middle. Although I know I say this often, this is the worst place. Just don’t think that in the off-season you have to come out of the middle. If you really don’t know if you are a contender or not, I plan to hold Diggs for at least a month to find out. Hopefully your team (or luck with injuries) will clear this up.
Sale of D’Andre Swift
I have Jonathon Taylor, Kenneth Walker and Deandre Swift as my main RBs. Given the uncertainty around Swift and his real role in Detroit, should he be sold due to the combination of peaks and WR depth? pic.twitter.com/kdtiUp7SQk
— Jacob McCandles (@TweetRose13) February 28, 2023
While many Dynasty trading questions are as clear as the one above, D’Andre Swift is not. He is a player with elite talent and youth by his side. He is also a player with a questionable role and a patchy injury history. If you have Jonathan Taylor and Kenneth Walker, it’s understandable that you’re considering swapping Swift. I just don’t really like the idea of exchanging it for a package. This is because I don’t really like to sell the best player in the trade.
I would be more interested in trying to turn Swift and something into top 10 wide receivers. Or see if I can turn him into an elite quarterback. If you’re going to accept the package, then shoot TE1 Mark Andrews and something else. if you can’t immediately improve your team by trading him, then I would bet on a talent win and consider him possibly the best flex player in the league.
Appreciate Kyle Pitts
What to do with Kyle Pitts? If selling, what would you sell it for?
— Drew 🃏 (@DrewCwilber) February 28, 2023
I wouldn’t sell Kyle Pitts. I still believe in talent, he will still be only 22 years old at the start of the season, his position is unlikely to get worse and his price has never been lower. Anyway, I would like to buy Kyle Pitts. And if you have it, the only move is to plan for the launch of Kyle Pitts.
But if you wanted to sell, I would look for a veteran who helped me win right now. If I had a real opponent, I would easily take Travis Kelsey, Davante Adams or Nick Chubb. If I had rebuilt, I would have been even more inclined to hold on, but I would have taken the top three in the rookie draft this year…but that’s about it.