A monthly dynasty ranking update makes a lot more sense than a monthly dynasty level update, at least in the off-season. Because while the players are definitely moving in my rankings, very few of them change much in terms of what level they are at. Someone like Deshawn Watson would be one exception to this rule, but I’m still not sure if anyone has them. basis for action as if they know where they should rank or rank Watson.
Level changes at this time of the year often have less to do with the players themselves than with how I view them. Here’s how Joe Burrow found himself at Level 3 on his own this month after being grouped with Dak Prescott and Jalen Herts in the last issue. Barrow is not currently a quarterback and I feel comfortable playing anyone else at this time.
The reason he’s not in level 1 or level 2 is because he’s not really close to showing us the same benefits as Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert or Lamar Jackson. That could absolutely change in the future, maybe even in the very near future, but it’s hard for me to put them on par with them when he’s predicted to be at least 25 less fantasy points than everyone in this group in 2022.
As I said earlier, Barrow needs to radically change one of two things before he can be considered an elite quarterback in the redraft. Either the Bengals need to throw the ball 100 more times, or Burrow needs to run a couple more hundred yards. Whatever the case, I predict he’ll have 63 more passes and 46 more yards in 2022, and he’s much closer to 12th than the top five.
Just don’t take it for me not getting an appeal. Burrow is a 25-year-old quarterback who just led his team to the Super Bowl, leading the NFL in both completion percentage and yards per pass attempt. All indications are that he is an elite passer and his team absolutely needs to throw more balls. It’s just hard to predict the huge change in philosophy for a team that just went to the Super Bowl. Last year, the Bengals plan worked almost perfectly, why would they make a major change?
If you were to ask me for a bet, I’d bet Burrow has five of the best fantasy seasons ahead of him. It may just have to wait until the team pays him so much money that they can’t afford to put up a good defense on the same budget. And since he’s not much younger than anyone in the top five and has less short-term upside potential, there really isn’t a good place for him. I just couldn’t leave it on par with Prescott and Hurts because they don’t have the same long-term security as him.
If you’re asking me to rank players in order of how likely they are to give you long-term top 12 performance, Barrow is already a tier one quarterback. He will have to show us more of the good side of fantasy before he gets to the next levels of the dynasty: