Home Chalk Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 12 early lines

Every NFL team’s record vs. the spread and Week 12 early lines


Margins are so small in this league, which is why we see so many tight weekly spreads (less than seven pips). It’s not that the bookmakers are afraid to take sides, but that we’re really talking about inches. It is this train of thought that makes outsiders in such places an increasingly profitable venture.

Between 2013 and 2017, these small dogs covered 49.8% of the lead and won 37.5% of the time. These are not bad numbers, but the coverage ratio is a net loss and the straight number should be +170 for projected gains over time. Again, not bad, but nothing special. However, in the four-plus years since then, the coverage rate has risen to 55% and the direct win rate to 42%. This coverage percentage clears the 52.4% number very much that it takes to be a profitable player, and the straight number only needs +138 on the moneyline to earn interest. You will notice that there are more than small underdogs in the week 12 chart with the money line price north of +138. Consider me interested.

As for specific team records and trends:

Thursday, 12:30

Buffalo Bills (-9, 53) to Detroit Lions

ATS accounts: 4-4-2
OU: 3-7
What do we know about bills? The Bills snapped their two-game losing streak in Week 11 with a victory over the Browns, but they went up in numbers and thus haven’t hit a single number since Week 6.

Lions ATS: 6-4
OU: 7-3
What do we know about Lions: Four of the Lions’ five home games this season have topped the total, which doesn’t mean it’s an unfamiliar field for the Bills, as they were the home team on that field last week.

Thursday, 16:30

New York Giants – Dallas Cowboys (-9, 44.5)

ATS Giants: 7-3
OU: 3-7
What do we know about the Giants: Five consecutive games in New York have ended five points behind the projected total.

Cowboys ATS: 7-3
OU: 4-6
What do we know about Cowboys: After an ugly run against the Bucks in Week 1 (losing 19–3 as a 2.5-point underdog), the Cowboys have a perfect 4–0 record at home, scoring at least 10 points in each of those games.

Thursday, 20:20

New England Patriots – Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42)

Patriots ATS: 6-3-1
OU: 4-6
What do we know about the Patriots: The Pats hit three games at once from Gillette Stadium, with two of those games taking much longer than the total.

Vikings ATS: 4-5-1
OU: 5-5
What do we know about the Vikings: Minnesota’s four-match unbeaten streak came to a spectacular end last week. The Vikings lost 40–3 as a two-point underdog.

Sunday, 13:00

Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders (-4, 42)

Falcons ATS: 7-4
OU: 6-5
What do we know about the Falcons: After three season-opening home covers in a row, the Falcons failed to cover their final two home covers, and they weren’t even close, failing to cover more than 11 points on each of those occasions.

ATS commanders: 6-4-1
OU: 4-7
What do we know about commanders: Four of Washington’s five home games this season have ended by six points (the last time was a push in Week 9, with Minnesota trailing three-pointers).

Chicago Bears – New York Jets (-5, 41.5)

Bears ATS: 4-6-1
OU: 7-4
What do we know about bears: Five overs in a row is fun, but the Bears have only covered one of their last four games.

Jets ATS: 6-4
OU: 3-7
What do we know about the Jets: The Jets saw four of five home games fall below the total. In fact, in all five of those games, the losing team failed to score 17 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5, 42.5) to Tennessee Titans

Bengals ATS: 7-3
OU: 4-5-1
What do we know about Bengals: The Bengals opened the season 0–2 on the ATS with five strikeouts in a row and have since been 7–1 on the ATS and 4–0–1 on overs.

Titans ATS: 8-2
OU: 3-7
What do we know about the Titans: Did you think Derrick Henry was hard to fight? Try to do this when he is resting. The Titans are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games played on extended rest.

Denver Broncos (-2.5, 35) – Carolina Panthers

Broncos ATS: 3-7
OU: 1-9
What do we know about the Broncos: Sports bettors already know that games in Denver rarely score high these days, but their last three away games have come under the total. In fact, these three games resulted in a total of 25.5 points less than the bookies predicted.

Panthers ATS: 5-6
OU: 4-7
What do we know about the Panthers: The Panthers have played three home games this season, with fewer totals on each of those occasions. It’s a low number this week, and it might not be low enough!

Houston Texans – Miami Dolphins (-12.5, 45.5)

Texans ATS: 4-5-1
OU: 4-6
What do we know about Texans: The Texans fought on the road earlier in the year (2-0-1 ATS), but have fallen on hard times lately and haven’t been able to cover their last two.

Dolphins ATS: 5-5
OU: 5-5
What do we know about dolphins: This season Univer is 4-1 in Dolphins’ home games and 4-1 in Miami’s away games.

Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Ravens ATS: 4-5-1
OU: 3-7
What do we know about Ravens: The Ravens have seen six of their last seven games under total, a trend that has never been clearer than last week in their 41.5 over/under win over the Panthers in a 13-3 victory .

Jaguars ATS: 3-7
OU: 4-6
What do we know about Jaguars: The Jagus saw four games in a row fall short of the projected total (1-3 ATS in those games).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 43) to Cleveland Browns

Buccaneers ATS: 3-6-1
OU: 2-8
What do we know about pirates: The last four times the Bucks have been on extended rest, their game has dropped below average (averaging 8.0 points per game).

Browns ATS: 4-5-1
OU: 7-2-1
What do we know about the Browns: Cleveland’s next home game to exceed the total will be the first of the season.

Sunday, 16:05

Las Vegas Raiders – Seattle Seahawks (-3.5, 47.5)

ATS Raiders: 4-6
OU: 5-4-1
What do we know about raiders: The Raiders opened the season with three consecutive ATS losses. It was followed by three covers in a row. Next? You guessed it: three ATS losses in a row. With a cover in Denver last week, they hope to keep that odd pattern alive.

Seahawks ATS: 6-4
OU: 5-5
What we know about the Seahawks: Think Seattle covers? I’m betting big. Their average coverage margin in six ATS wins is 11.3 points.

Los Angeles Chargers – Arizona Cardinals

PBX chargers: 7-3
OU: 5-5
What do we know about chargers: The Bolts have lost two games at home but have a perfect 5-0 score in that competition (four of those five games were decided six points under).

ATS Cardinals: 5-6
OU: 6-4-1
What do we know about the cardinals: Arizona goes on a short rest this week, which means one of two outcomes: coverage and more or no coverage and less. It may sound simple, but it’s true for every one of the last six games played in a short workweek.

Sunday, 16:25

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers

Holy ATS: 4-7
OU: 6-5
What do we know about the Saints: The Saints have yet to cover the road game by not averaging 7.3 points.

49ers ATS: 5-5
OU: 4-6
What we know about the 49ers: How is the home team this week? Support them. Three of San Francisco’s four home games have been decided by at least 15 points.

Los Angeles Rams – Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5, 44)

Rams ATS: 2-7-1
OU: 4-6
What do we know about the Rams: It’s been over a month since the Rams covered the spread, and just under 11 months since they covered a regular season game that hit the total.

Heads of ATS: 4-6
OU: 5-5
What do we know about the Chiefs: Four losses to the ATS and four losses in Kansas City’s five home games, but at least the cover (barely) came in their last home game – a 27-17 win over the Jaguars in Week 10 as the 9-foot favorite. .5 points.

Sunday, 20:20

Green Bay Packers – Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 46.5)

Packers ATS: 4-7
OU: 5-6
What we know about Packers: The Packers have yet to extend their pre-game rest until this weekend. Green Bay has covered five such games in a row, and four of them have received ticket money.

Eagles ATS: 5-5
OU: 6-4
What do we know about Eagles: The ugly loss to the Commander is fresh in our minds as the very last home game, but that game really topped the total that Philadelphia’s last four games have done in front of their loyal fans.

Monday, 20:15

Pittsburgh Steelers – Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39)

Steelers ATS: 4-5-1
OU: 4-6
What do we know about the Steelers: Vegas knows how to put the Steelers away on Monday night. In each of Pittsburgh’s last seven games at this location, the total has been within five points of prediction.

Colts ATS: 5-6
OU: 2-9
What do we know about the Colts: For the first time since Week 5, the Colts covered a game that was under total in Week 11.

Source: www.espn.com