Since 2009, 10 of the 13 Super Bowl champions have won three games, and overall this set of teams covered 71.8% of games (overall: 79.5%). Even wilder? Take away two completely healthy Tom Brady Super Bowl seasons in New England (2014 and 2018, it was thought here that a completely healthy Brady in the midst of a dynastic race was not exactly a normal handicap situation) and that figure would jump to an absurd 78.8%. (absolute: 84.8%).
Okay, let’s keep pushing. With those two seasons removed by Brady, only three of the 11 teams measured had a negative number of points compared to over/under in three games. So over the course of three weeks, recent trends show our future Super Bowl champion holding a winning record (both direct and ATS) along with a positive overall margin. Great, so what are these commands?
Baltimore Ravens (2-1 ATS, league-leading +43.5 points overall)
Cleveland Browns (2-1, +38.5)
Miami Dolphins (3-0, +2.5)
Strange list? A little. So how do we choose where to bet on futures? A bit of projection.
Of those last 13 regular season champions, they have beaten opponents by an average of 7.6 points. Current valuations: Crows (+7.3), Dolphins (+6.3) and Browns (+4.3).
Every Super Bowl winner this millennium has had an interception rate of over 2%. Current ratings: Crows (4.3%), Browns (1%) and Dolphins (0.8%).
The Ravens are rated as a very reasonable choice for the Super Bowl in three weeks (+1400, T-6th in highest odds).
I hear you: “Whatever, Miami beat them head to head!” True. But they did it after being 70 yards behind in three quarters, which happens about 18% of the time. I am not sold. These recent trends, such as the Ravens, as the best price in the Super Bowl markets until September. As for how each team looks in three weeks…
Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 47) to Cincinnati Bengals
Dolphins ATS: 3-0
What do we know about dolphins: That’s 10 covers in 12 games for the Fins, with eight of those games cashing out to sell-outs.
Bengals ATS: 1-2
What do we know about Bengals: That’s four outs in a row in Bengals games, and that’s followed by a 7-2-1 stretch of overs.
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 44) v New Orleans Saints
ATiking ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Vikings: The Vikings are only 1-4 in their last five away games, and that one win is a 17-9 victory over the Bears in week 15 of last season… as the seven-point favorite.
Holy ATS: 0-3
What do we know about the Saints: A rough start, but a welcome twist on the calendar. Over the past five seasons, only the Steelers (76.5%) have covered October games, with a higher coverage than the Saints (72.2%).
Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 52) to Baltimore Ravens
ATS accounts: 2-1
What do we know about bills? The Bills have been favorites on the road in seven games since the start of last season, and five of them have gone negative.
Ravens ATS: 2-1
What do we know about Ravens: In each of Baltimore’s last four games, total points have been at least 11 points off predicted. If you feel the progress of the game, it will be valuable!
Chicago Bears – New York Giants.
Bears ATS: 1-1-1
What do we know about bears: The Bears are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 away games against the NFC.
ATS Giants: 2-1
What do we know about the Giants: Not one, not two, not three… seven G-men covers in a row in a short week. That’s exactly what happened this week when the Bears came to town after the Giants hosted the Cowboys on Monday night.
Cleveland Browns (-1.5, 50) to Atlanta Falcons
Browns ATS: 0-2
What do we know about the Browns: All three of Cleveland’s games this season have topped total overs, giving them more overs in the 2022 season than in the last two months of the 2021 season.
Falcons ATS: 3-0
What do we know about the Falcons: The Falcons covered at home in Week 1 against the Saints, losing 5.5 points (27–26 loss). They have not covered back-to-back home games since they did in weeks 9 and 12 of 2020.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 48.5)
Jaguars ATS: 2-1
What do we know about Jaguars: The Jags have now covered three out of four after failing to cover once over seven games.
Eagles ATS: 2-1
What do we know about Eagles: The Eagles are home favorites this weekend. Their last ATS loss in such a place came in week 7 of 2020 (on this stretch: 4-0-1 ATS).
New York Jets – Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 41.5)
Jets ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Jets: If you’re losing to the Jets ATS, it’s important to note that each of their last four ATS losses have come in tandem with a disadvantage.
Steelers ATS: 2-0
What do we know about the Steelers: When their game starts on Sunday, the Steelers will have 327 days since they last won a game that included an over. If you like black with gold in this place, the latest trends suggest pairing it with the bottom.
Tennessee Titans – Indianapolis Colts (-3, 42.5)
Titans ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Titans: The Titans have defended three games in a row against the Colts, and four of their last five meetings with a division rival have received more tickets.
Colts ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Colts: The Colts started off 0-2 ATS but took their first win, ATS and outright, with a dramatic victory over the Chiefs.
Los Angeles Chargers (-5, 44.5) vs. Houston Texans
PBX chargers: 2-1
What do we know about chargers: The Bolts returned to training in week three, giving them seven overs in their last nine.
Texans ATS: 2-0-1
What do we know about Texans: The Texans are 3-1-1 in their last five games, but have won exactly none of those games.
Seattle Seahawks – Detroit Lions (-5.5, 50)
Seahawks ATS: 1-2
What we know about the Seahawks: Seattle has been 7-2 away since the start of last season.
Lions ATS: 3-0
What do we know about Lions: The Lions haven’t just covered all three games this season, they’re up a remarkable 10-2 ATS over their last 12. Their last ATS loss? Week 17 of last season… vs. the Seahawks.
Washington Commanders to the Dallas Cowboys
ATS commanders: 1-2
What do we know about commanders: If you lost to the commanders, you lost on points. In five of Washington’s last seven coverage failures, the failure was realized.
Cowboys ATS: 2-1
What do we know about Cowboys: More tickets have been won in seven of Dallas’ last 10 games on short rest, including all three of those games last season.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Carolina Panthers (-1.5, 44)
ATS Cardinals: 1-2
What do we know about the cardinals: The Cardinals were leading 8-1 on the road last season, and while it wasn’t a work of art, they’re 1-0 this season on the road (overtime win in Vegas with a 5.5-point underdog) . .
Panthers ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Panthers: Last week, the Panthers closed their homes for the first time in 371 days and will try to do so twice in a row this weekend.
Denver Broncos – Las Vegas Raiders (-2, 44.5)
Broncos ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Broncos: This season, all three games of the Broncos lost in the overall standings by more than 10 points.
ATS Raiders: 0-3
What do we know about raiders: The Raiders have failed to cover three games in a row this season, and in 2021 they have done so not once, not twice, but three times. Good news? Neither of those streaks lasted until the fourth game.
New England Patriots – Green Bay Packers (-10.5, 40)
Patriots ATS: 0-2-1
What do we know about the Patriots: The Patriots advanced in their second week in Pittsburgh, but they don’t usually play close to scatter games. Apart from these efforts, none of their games since last November have been within seven pips of the spread.
Packers ATS: 2-1
What we know about Packers: Does three straight games for the Packers sound weird? It shouldn’t. From weeks 4 to 10 of last season, they played seven outs in a row.
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 45) – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heads of ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Chiefs: Here we go again. The Chiefs opened 2-7 ATS last season and then quickly shut down six in a row once the public got mad at them.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-1
What do we know about pirates: Run Tom Brady’s sleep time statistics. His Bucs are 2-8 ATS, while under 7-3 (five hits in a row) in prime time regular season games.
Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers (-2, 42.5)
Rams ATS: 1-2
What do we know about the Rams: Don’t expect fireworks on Monday Night Football. Five of the Rams’ last six prime-time games have been short of schedule.
49ers ATS: 1-2
What we know about the 49ers: Having lost seven in a row to the ATS at home, the 49ers have covered each of their last five in front of their die-hard fans (the last three tickets made money).