The offensive line can decide or break the season. So what does each team’s division look like in the 2022 season?
We evaluated the lines of all 32 teams by combining our predicted winning blocking ratios (PBWR) and scoring blocking rates (RBWR) for this season, which are based on each predicted starter’s past performance – according to Mike Clay – over the last two seasons. Beginning rookies are assumed to be below average, because historically they usually are, even first-round rookies. Players who played, but only in small numbers, had their previous winrate drop to below average levels.
We then averaged passing and running block ratings with a 60/40 split in favor of passing play, based on approximately how much PBWR and RBWR correlate with the expected number of points added by the team per game. RBWR has a greater impact on EPA completion per game than PBWR on EPA completion per game, but in general game transfer is more important. This weighted average gives our overall offensive lane rating. Let’s start with two teams vying for the Super Bowl.
1 Kansas City Chiefs
Projected starters: Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Tooney, Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Andrew Wylie
Predicted gear block rank: No. 1
Projected launch block rank: No. 5