Fantasy baseball: 10 busts to avoid in 2023


For every like, there is a dislike.

This is as true in fantasy baseball as it is in any area of ​​life, and since that Tuesday was my “sleeping” day, today, on the contrary, let’s turn our attention to the players I avoid in drafts.

As always with a list like this, every one of the 10 names on this list is a player that I am willing to include in the squad this season for a fee. Based on what they can provide in 2023 combined with what they have at the beginning mean position of draft Trends (ADP) – both within the Sportzshala leagues and off the site – show that each one is too expensive for my liking.

So let’s take a look at the guys I love You To draft on your lists so I don’t have to deal with them.

Tim Anderson, SS, Chicago White Sox: I never had much faith in Anderson, which is easier to say when you judge leagues by points rather than skewer formats. However, his 2022 has raised a few warning flags for or format. Anderson suffered multiple injuries: first a groin problem that hampered his swing, then surgery to repair a torn sagittal band on his left middle finger that ultimately ended his season in August. He also showed minimal recovery of the lost Statcast sprint speed he showed in 2021, his 2022 figure was in a modest 76th percentile while his .255 BABIP on ground balls – remember that speed is integral to his hitting field — represented by a two-year decline and his second-lowest career result.

Perhaps Anderson is right that a groin injury was entirely responsible for his declining performance, but I don’t think he’s worth his asking price so far.

Andres Jimenez, 2B, Cleveland Guardians: He was one of baseball’s top defensemen in 2022, fueling his day-to-day role, and has elite speed that makes another 20-interception season likely. He shouldn’t have much of a problem once he re-enters the top 10 second-place basemen. Almost everything went well with the bat, however, especially the 40-point difference between Jiménez’s .297 average and Statcast. expected average (0.257), the fourth-largest gap in this direction among qualifying. Also, his batting numbers (36th percentile on Statcast and 33rd percentile on barrels) do not portend a repeat of his 17 home runs.

He’s a solid player, probably in the top 100, but even there he’s going 2-3 rounds early and in the league he’s more like an average mid-level infielder in points.

Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals: If we’re talking about BA-xBA differences, Goldschmidt’s league-leading 56-point lead (.317 vs. .261) was the biggest in the league in or direction, and let’s also highlight that the 52-point gap between his actual wOBA (.419) and expected wOBA (.367) was also the biggest in the league. To be fair, Goldschmidt is an outstanding player, unconditionally in the top 50 of any format. However, in March he finished 23rd overall in either the Sportzshala leagues or the National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) leagues, which I think is too expensive for a player who did well last year. .

Keep in mind, too, that Goldschmidt’s Statcast sprint speed has also been down from last year, to the point where he ranked in the 26th percentile last year, meaning last season’s seven interceptions are probably more realistic. than his 12 interceptions in 2021. .

Kenley Jansen, forward, Boston Red Sox: The epitome of slow pitching pitchers, Jansen’s pace last season, according to Statcast, was third fastest with empty bases and slowest with runners on base — with numbers that would most certainly be a few seconds faster than the new pitching hours. limits. This needs a noticeable adjustment, and with Jansen no longer having his 2014-17 peak speed, and also seeing a slight decline in terms of groundball and hard hitting numbers (as well as average exit speed), it’s a legitimate concern.

He has the contract and track record to become a widely known castle with over 30 saves, but he is also 35 years old and now faces more questions than some of the other “back top 10” RP types, many of which have electrical, things that generate strikeouts. Jansen is just not in the top ten fantasy for me.

Starling Marte, OF, New York Mets: His recent history of injury, combined with the fact that he is now 34 years old and draws much of his fantasy from his stolen bases, is of increasing concern. A broken rib cost him five weeks in 2021, a partial fracture in his right middle finger cost him almost a month at the end of the 2022 regular season, and major muscle surgery initially threatened his 2023 Opening Day status before he returned to action early. during the Grapefruit League season.

Marte’s sprinting speed, like that of Goldschmidt, is declining: over the past three seasons, he has had three of the worst results. He also recouped most of the contact boost he had during his great 2018-19 season, which is especially problematic for those of us who play points in the league. It is still a good building block in the skewer league, but it will probably cost you a top 75 pick to get it, which is too prohibitive in my opinion.

Jeremy Peña, SS, Houston Astros: He had big rookie year, while he became only the fifth rookie in history with at least 20 homers and 10 stolen bases and won both the American League Championship and World Series MVP awards, not to mention proving more than an adequate replacement for departed free agent Carlos. Correa. In fact, Foam’s WAR, 4.9, was almost as high as Correa’s, 5.5! However, there is such a thing as talent in real life is better than in fantasy, and Peña potentially fits that description.

He swings extremely freely, walked only 3.9% of his plate matches, had an alarming 51.5% ground ball rate after the All-Star break, and was .243/.267/.398 in that last split. Pena still has some work to do at this level, which teams are sure to find out after such a high-profile rookie campaign. I suggest taking a step back by letting him work with them on the competitor list. Return to it by entering the year 2024.

Jordan Romano, forward, Toronto Blue Jays: Like Jansen, Romano is very close to job security and is probably one of the strongest bettors on 30+ saves in this position for these reasons. However, the problem in his case is that 2022 looks like his peak year, he had a big gap in terms of ERA/xERA (1.20 difference) and he gave up a lot of hard contacts. So he seems to be taking a small step back.

However, Romano was the 4th pitcher and 52nd overall pick in the NFBC leagues through March, meaning he is considered one of the best in the position. He’s very valuable, as you can see from my rating (RP7/107 overall), but I wouldn’t rank him higher in the position.

Blake Snell, SP, San Diego Padres: He has five consecutive seasons with a strikeout rate of at least 30%, and his expected ERA of 3.19 last year almost matched his mark of 3.15 compared to his 2018 Cy Young mark. , proportional to 135 (pandemic year 2020), 128 2/3 and 128 innings over the past four seasons, demonstrating the extreme difficulty of both staying healthy and playing deep. In those four seasons, he has amassed a total of 25 wins and 28 quality starts, a total surpassed in both categories by the likes of Brad Keller, Eric Lauer, Jordan Lyles, Wade Miley, Mike Minor and Martin Perez.

There’s something to be said for Snell’s fantasy production for the dough, but there’s also something to be said for jugs that provide more volume.

Glaber Torres, 2B, New York Yankees: It pains me to put him here, especially since he set personal bests last season with his Statcast Barrel (10.7%) and hard hitting rating (45.3%), but Torres increasingly seems like a man out of position in New York. York. Anthony Volpe’s eye-opening spring has packed the Yankees’ infield, DJ LeMahieu is currently healthy and in need of a spot to play, and Torres himself is rumored to be in trade talks by the 2022 deadline to get pitched.

Without a dedicated space for daily play, Torres’ fantastic appeal is failing – a problem for a player who barely made it into the positional top 10 last season. If he was traded, it’s also important to consider that his career OPS at Yankee Stadium is 59 points higher than on the road and his HR there is 1.3% higher than on the road.

Julio Urias, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers: A member of last year’s roster, Urias’ true ERA (2.16) surpassed his expected Statcast ERA (2.81) for the fourth straight season in 2022, so naturally he’s proven his ability to do it again, right? Well, perhaps. Yes, he was one of the best pitchers in baseball at putting down hard contact. However, Urias’ penchant for “swing and miss” falls short of some of the similar hands he is surrounded by on average, as his 12.4% swing hitting rate over the past two seasons is only a hair above the league average. and he doesn’t have a batted distribution (40.0% GB, 28.5% FB last year), which inspires confidence should he lose any of his teams.

Plus, the Dodgers actually cut his total innings last year, making him doubt he would ever be trusted with a 200 frame campaign. Urias is a very, very good pitcher, but to me, he’s not in the top 15 fantasy starters despite being ranked or drafted a lot.


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