If you play Fantasy Baseball, you should bookmark this page for hot stove season. Here you will find our breakdown of the biggest moves, i.e. those that have major implications for Fantasy Baseball.
You’ll certainly want to come back in the off-season, next year and ahead of spring training. The lockout last year broke the usual times, but the off-season tends to be slow.
Here’s my breakdown of everything that matters at the moment…
Jose Abreu signs with Astros
Abreu is experiencing the worst season of his career, with his 2021 home run total halved, which may be a little worrisome considering he’s 35 years old and… well, you may have heard of a new ball that definitely squashes home run totals. players. But his exit rate and failure rate were in line with career norms, i.e. the 93rd and 97th percentiles, respectively, i.e. perfect. This suggests that age was not an issue, and the ball probably wasn’t either. There is such a thing as statistical oddity.
In other words, Abreu is likely to rebound wherever he goes, but joining the Astros only makes it more likely. Statcast estimates that he would have hit 22 home runs in their park against the 15 he actually hit. The Astros can also be described as a formidable offensive force, which bodes well for a man with uncanny running skills (as far as any of us believe in such things), averaging 110 points in 162 career games. Reaction to Abreu was lukewarm in the early drafts, but the move should solidify him as one of the top 6-7 first basemen off the board.
Mike Clevinger signed with the White Sox
Clevinger’s long-awaited return after Tommy John’s surgery didn’t pan out. Its speed has dropped a couple miles per hour from when we last saw it in 2022. His odor rate went up from the 75th percentile to the 39th percentile. Neither improved during the year, resulting in a 6.52 ERA in his last six starts. Before that it was 3.59, but the underlying numbers created problems. Every time a pitcher gets surgery on Tommy John, the chances of getting back in shape go down, and this was Clevinger’s second surgery. Perhaps he’s nothing more than a backhand moving forward, and that’s all the White Sox ask him to be. Call him late, if at all.
Hunter Renfro traded to Angels
With at least 26 homers in five consecutive seasons (excluding a pandemic-shortened 2020), Renfro has become a reliable slugger at a time when they are once again becoming more valuable. The last two seasons were his best, and in each of them he threw almost the same shots. What’s reassuring about his move to a new location is that the two shows were in different parks, and while Angel Stadium may not have the reputation of being the American Family Field where Renfro played in 2022, it was more favorable to attackers. the friendliest of the two in the last three years.
There, Renfro will have a chance to take on Mike Trout, Shohei Otani and Taylor Ward, all of whom hit base better than .350 clips last year. Suffice to say, Renfro’s stock won’t be hurt by this move, and given the current state of the long position, he should be one of the first 30 draft picks.
Theoscar Hernandez traded to Mariners for Eric Swanson
The move for Hernandez would have caused more fear a couple of years ago, when Rogers Center was still considered a hitter’s haven, but with the introduction of the humidor in 2021 (a year earlier than most other places), it hasn’t played as favorably. It’s still better than T-Mobile Park, which ranks last in overall parking factor but is in the middle of the home run rankings. Hernandez’s contact quality is so high that I don’t see it as a major issue for him, but it makes his rankings clear for 2022 – behind Randy Arozarena and Cedric Mullins, but ahead of Adolis Garcia.
Swanson, meanwhile, gives the Blue Jays a solid installer, posting a 1.68 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 11.7 K/9 with the Mariners last year. Most likely, he will support Jordan Romano in saves. The deal also gave the Blue Jays a worthy pitching candidate, Adam Mako.
Tyler Anderson signs with Angels
The Dodgers are one of those organizations that are known for pulling jewels out of a scrap heap, and Anderson is one such example. Signed to a one-year contract, the 32-year-old soft-bodied athlete changed the grip of his replacement bandage so that the lower part fell out, and the results were good enough to earn him an All-Star appearance and a qualifying offer – one. he seemed destined to take until the Angels stepped in with a three-year wager. We would certainly prefer Anderson to stay with Fantasy. His poor track record and low strikeout percentage would inspire skepticism even with the Dodgers’ built-in advantages, and now he’s likely to be part of a six-man rotation to adjust to Shohei Otani. However, the early ADP results suggest that Anderson is coming so late that the “glass half full” approach makes sense.
The move only increases the chances that up-and-coming players like Ryan Pepiot, Bobby Miller or Gavin Stone will land a spot on the Dodgers rotation in early 2023.
Anthony Rizzo signed with the Yankees
Although several teams reportedly had him in their sights, Rizzo decided to play the Yankees again for two more years rather than testing the open market. That might seem like the best possible result in Fantasy, given that he just hit the 30 homer threshold for the first time in five years – and at a time when 30 homers really mean something. He took aim at the short porch in right field, changing his swing to launch the ball in that direction, and now we can expect more from the same. But with these changes came a decline in the average, which can also be fixed.
If he goes elsewhere, perhaps Rizzo will flatten his swing and see his average jump up with the new shift restrictions. But now we’ll never know. His current configuration makes him a viable option at first base, but an imperfect one that probably shouldn’t be picked in the first 10 rounds.
Jock Pederson signed with the Giants
The most unlikely player to receive a qualifying offer, unsurprisingly, accepted it, increasing Pederson’s base salary from $6 million to $19.65 million. He may have ended his best season by setting a career-high 26-point batting average while still two points closer to an OPS-high, but he was also a weak defensive player who didn’t see much action against southpaws. jugs. The Giants love to change their roster just like any other team, so these playing time issues will remain despite the big paycheck. Pederson has a spot in the leagues with five outfielders, but his options are limited.
Martin Perez signs with Rangers
Another well-traveled 30-year-old at the end of his year, Pérez has been unable to resist the big pay raise provided by the qualifying offer and will return to Rangers in 2023. He has long excelled at limiting hard contact, so his 2022 breakthrough may have been just a by-product of the league taking the juicy ball out of circulation. But even so, his 3.59 xERA and 3.80 xFIP give a better indication of what to expect going forward than his 2.89 ERA. Also worrisome is that he’s hit 4.3 BB/9 in his last 15 starts compared to 2.2 in his first 17. He doesn’t catch the ball well enough to get away with it.
However, these fears are widespread and there are early signs that they are having a huge impact on Perez’s roughing stock, so the risk may be worth the reward.
Miles Mastrobuoni traded to Cubs
Mastrobuoni is not a big name and may never be. But howThe Rays produce so many super helpful guys like him that they are often forced to trade them when they come of age, with Jake Cronenworth being a prime example. Well, voila. It remains to be seen if Mastrobuoni will turn into a fantasy asset with the Cubs the way Cronenworth did with the Padres, but the 27-year-old looks like a striker and could potentially also act as a base stealer. Also, the regenerating Cubs won’t have too much trouble finding bats for him if he proves worthy of them. Put him on your radar as a fast sleeper to keep an eye on during spring training.
Clayton Kershaw signed with the Dodgers
Like he was going somewhere else, right? It looks like Kershaw and the Dodgers have a one-year permanent deal until he decides to retire. Of course, we wouldn’t want to see him in Fantasy, and he’s still an ace when he can take the mound, averaging as many points per game as Shane McClanahan did last season. But that’s only when he can. His 126 1/3 innings was his most since 2019, and he hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2015. Extended absences are now just part of the package, making Kershaw too troublesome to make it into the top 30 starting pitchers. .