If you go back a week, Emily Pagan were equal numbers. He was sitting on a 2.45 ERA and had just completed his ninth save. He seemed like a pitcher we could trust.
Now back to the present where Pagan has been hit hard and we have to wonder if Minnesota will make a difference.
Gemini has a closer conundrum.
The last two outings have been a mess for Pagan: two innings, five runs, a cleared homer. His ERA is now over 4 and his FIP, who never bought a Pagan this year, is over 5. It looks like smoke-and-mirrors. If you prefer Statcast for the expected ERA, this data comes up with a number of 4.59.
charts on Baseball Savant paint a darker picture. Pagan tolerates all kinds of hard contact and struggles to get chases out of the strike zone. A strong strikeout rate helps, though it also deals with the nasty walking problem. When he enters the game, I don’t have the nerve to watch.
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On Wednesday, Pagan was tasked with making two innings but failed to finish the second inning. He still gets a hold for his one inning and three runs, which tells you how stupid the holding statistic is. Even if your league is tired of chasing saves, saves aren’t a satisfying alternative.
The Twins are in contention for the AL Central title, so they may consider other options in the ninth inning. What do not like John Duran? He posted a 2.35 ERA in 30.2 innings, with 41 strikeouts against just six walks. Random problems with Homers – he’s allowed four – the only blip on his radar. And that 100 mph fastball will forever be a selling point.
(This is the golden age for the Durans, isn’t it? Jarren Duran having fun as a leading player in Boston, although he can’t play in the Toronto series because he’s unvaccinated. Ezekiel Duran interesting player in Texas. Maybe it’s just a reflex, but I want one of these guys. Okay, okay, not mas.)
Minnesota’s Duran is long gone in the deeper leagues, but you can still pick him up in some medium and small pools. The current tag of his Sportzshala listing is 41 percent.