As you prepare for Fantasy Football 2022, be sure to practice using our dummy lobby.

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Football statistics are extremely difficult to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is much easier than you might think.

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The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 versions of this article contain irrefutable evidence.

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There were 79 names in those six columns, and on 72 occasions a player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That’s an absurd hit rate of 91.1%. Five eliminations occurred during the historically offensive seasons of 2018 and 2020 (including Tysome Hill, who scored four of nine goals during his four surprise QB starts), and despite the league having an extra game last season, our only the misses in 2021 were Ryan. Tannehill (tied with his 2020 total) and Mike Evans (by one TD). Even if you rule out players who barely saw the field (David Johnson, Antonio Brown, Christian McCaffrey), the percentage of hits remains extremely high.

This is not surprising as we have learned over the years that players simply cannot maintain very high scoring rates. This is not a blow to their talent. Scoring is just a possibility.

Do you want proof? Okay, I have.