Fantasy Football fallout: Aaron Rodgers confirms he intends to play for Jets, here’s what’s next

Convincing yourself that you’re just a quarterback upgrade from a rivalry can be dangerous for an NFL team. Just ask Russell Wilson and his Broncos how this trip goes.

At the same time, the Jets are one of the teams that really could have been just a few steps away from the fight a year ago. They ranked fourth in the NFL in defensive scoring but finished just 7-10 as they were pulled down by one of the league’s worst offenses. But this offense was hardly hopeless – in fact, the presence of some of the league’s most promising young masters gives much hope for the future.

And, since Aaron Rodgers has announced that he intends to play for the Jets in 2023 (and beyond?), the schedule for that future is now (unofficially) accelerated. The question is, can Rodgers help take the Jets to the next level, or is this another situation where Wilson moves to the Broncos?

We are waiting for the deal to actually go through as the Packers and Jets continue to discuss compensation for the deal. However, since Rodgers is clear about his intention to play and play for the Jets, it’s only a matter of time before everything passes. Let’s take a look at what this means for the Jets, as well as what the Packers will look like after Jordan Love takes over in today’s newsletter.

Jets Outlook with Aaron Rodgers

The most important question to answer when talking about this move is whether Aaron Rodgers remains Aaron Rogers in this moment. He certainly didn’t look like himself last season. Let’s look at the numbers first:

Rogers in 2022

• TD%: 4.8% (third in his career)
• Y/A: 6.8 (second in his career)
• Passer Rating: 91.1 (career low)
• QBR: 39.3 (career low)

Ranked third in the league in completion percentage versus expected in 2021 (3.3%), Rodgers posted -1.6% last season, a significant drop. And, to a certain extent, the loss of Davante Adams certainly played a part in Rodgers’ regression. Adams was Roger’s target, and the Packers replaced him primarily with rookies like Christian Watson and Romeo Daubes, who, while having their moments, struggled with injury and consistency.

Rodgers has always seemed like a quarterback who really needs to trust his receivers, and he’s been open about his dissatisfaction with the number of “mental mistakes” the Packers made last season. Whether he can build that confidence in his new Jets teammates remains to be seen, but it’s clear he wasn’t fully confident in his ability at Green Bay. It’s also worth noting that Rodgers played with a broken thumb for most of the season, which of course didn’t help his game despite his public claims that it wasn’t a problem.

The good news is that there is some built-in familiarity here. Rodgers reunited with former offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and the Jets added Allen Lazard, who led the Packers in hitting last season. We hope this should help create a soft landing, but if Rogers is going to return to MVP form, he will do so with a healthy helping hand from Garrett Wilson and hopefully Elijah Moore.

And, to be clear, Rodgers is a clear improvement over what the Jets had last year, even if he never returns to his MVP form. Whether or not he does so will determine whether the move was worth it for the Jets, but given that the Jets quarterbacks combined had a 2.4% touchdown percentage and 6.4 yards per try last season, it was It would be very difficult not to become an upgrade. let’s hope the presence of last year’s Broncos head coach as the architect of the attack is just a funny coincidence.

The question is, how much will it upgrade and how will it allocate targets?

My understanding is that Wilson will remain the No. 1 option on this offense and he gets a little hit here as a result – before Rogers he was my WR16, but for me he jumped to WR10. That might be too much in a relatively uncertain spot, but Wilson just hit 83 catches for 1,103 yards as a 22-year-old with terrible QB play, so predicting an improvement seems like a safe bet.

Other than that, I don’t necessarily promote anyone else. This time around a year ago, Moore’s ascent looked confident, but a tough season where he at times struggled to even get on the field changed that trajectory. He may still be the #2 option, but Rogers’ familiarity with Lazard complicates matters. Moore should be seen as a more promising WR4 than anyone else, while Lazard is likely to have a higher level due to his red zone skills but a much lower ceiling if everything goes right.

As for Rogers? Well, I think it’s unlikely that it will be a high-end fantasy variant again, but a restoration is out of the question. The QB position is starting to run out of surefire options in the QB1 low range and I think Rodgers could fit in with the likes of Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa and Daniel Jones, among a few others.

Hopefully Rodgers will be the tide that lifts all the boats, including incredibly talented RB sophomore Brees Hall, who is looking to be ready for the start of the season due to a knee injury that ended his rookie season.

The 2022 Broncos is a cautionary tale: Hackett’s presence on both teams is hopefully nothing more than a funny coincidence, and Rodgers’ real-life regression last season suggests there are several reasons this could go wrong.

But Wilson and Hall look like elite talent, and you don’t need to portray Rogers at his peak to believe his presence will benefit them. The positive side of the rest of the offense will depend on how good Rogers is.

The Packers’ Perspective Without Aaron Rodgers

The nice thing is that the Packers have long known about their plans after Rogers. Jordan Love has sat behind Rodgers for three years since he was selected 26th overall in the 2020 NFL Draft, and he’s about to get his first extended draft right before the Packers have to make a decision about his long-term future. .

We’ve seen some Love complete 50 of 83 passes (60.2%) in the NFL. He averaged 7.3 yards per try with a 3.6% touchdown rate, although obviously the sample size here is too small to draw any conclusions. He should be familiar with the offense and have a decent young weapon with Watson and Dubs, but from the outside, this offense will enter the 2023 season as more or less completely unknown.

The fact that the Packers seem more than willing to walk away from Rodgers suggests that they believe Love is ready, but that’s just speculation. Maybe they’re just shrugging off Rogers’ idiosyncrasy and want to see what they have in Love as they hope to build a future – they’ll have to decide on his fifth year option as a former first round pick before the 2024 season, so that this was their last chance to learn the truth about love. They may have as many questions as everyone else, and they just want the answers to those questions before deciding on Love’s second contract.

This is an attack with a lot of potential for Fantasy, if, of course, Love is good. Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon should continue to share running time and this is one of the best RB duos in the league. Daubs looks like a reliable player moving forward, while Watson looks like a potential star.

And Watson is probably the most important player in that offense for Fantasy goals in 2023. He demonstrated prodigious big-game ability and was Rodgers’ red zone choice during that spell, when he scored eight touchdowns in four games. He couldn’t keep up the pace, but still finished the season with 523 receiving yards and 61 rushing yards with eight touchdowns in the last eight games. Watson will have solid value as a WR3 with high Fantasy draft potential, but some overzealous manager in your league might decide he looks more like a top 24 guy; I’ll walk away from this price. Daubs is more like a PPR WR3/4, although there are upsides if he can lock in the role of “every down” after being restricted for the entire length of his journey after injury.

Watson will have to prove that he can repeat his late-season production with Love, and it’s entirely possible that Love is just a disaster that will undo all the crime. Obviously Rodgers wasn’t good last season, but he brought a basic level of competence to the QB position and Love can’t guarantee that. He could be a star, continuing the legacy of Rodgers and Brett Favre, but until we see him play real snaps, it’s impossible to say for sure.

At the moment I’m looking at Watson as a more promising WR3 and Doubs as a potential WR3/4 in PPR formats. Jones remains a marginal RB1 while Dillon is more of a RB2/3 – not someone I want to trust as a starter, but someone who still has a lot of upside potential. Love is probably best left for the 2QB leagues, although if you want to take a flier late in the round in case he surprises, I think that’s reasonable.