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Fantasy Football Week 10 Analysis: Why you should keep Allen Lazard locked in lineups going forward

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Welcome to Week 10, Fantasy Managers! If you are new to this article series, I will use my Expected Fantasy Points model to determine which players relied on volume or production efficiency for the fantasy. In short, two metrics that we will use every week:

  • Expected Fantasy Points (or xFP)

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    Fantasy scores exceeded expectations (or FPOE = actual scores – expected scores)

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Why are these metrics important? In short, a fantasy production based on volume (or xFP) much more steady week after week. As a result, we want to target players who score highly on this metric. On the other hand, players who rely on efficiency (or FPOE) much more volatile on a weekly basis. For a more detailed breakdown of my model, be sure to from week 1!

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Let’s dive in!

Data provided by nflfastR

Wide receivers: fantastic use and efficiency

Top 12 Fantasy Wide Receivers in Week 9. (Used data provided by nflfastR)
Top 12 Fantasy Wide Receivers in Week 9. (Used data provided by nflfastR)

Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders

While the Las Vegas Raiders have struggled to win games this year, Davante Adams remained largely unaffected as it continues to average WR1 numbers. Aside from a terrible performance across the Raiders’ offense in Week 8, Adams had double-digit fantasy scores in all but one game this year. In addition, he has directed three of the best fantasy productions so far. One of them happened last week when Adams scored 31.6 points in the PPR half on an impressive Target share 47.2 percent as well as 54.6% share of air yards.

Surprisingly, even though he got a total of 17 chances against the Jaguars, all his fantasy was in the first ten goals. In other words, he could have had an even bigger week if he had taken any of his last seven opportunities.

It remains to be seen if he will be suspended for pushing a cameraman earlier this season. But as long as he remains active, Adams should be considered an elite WR1 currently in the top 5 in both expected Fantasy scores (15.5) and target share (31.1%) for the first nine weeks.

Allen Lazard – Green Bay Packers

Allen Lazard had a productive season despite a disappointing first half from the Green Bay Packers. During the first nine weeks, Lazar held the following positions:

  • WR25 in Expected Fantasy Points (10.9)

  • WR22 in Fantasy Points higher than expected (+1.61)

  • WR36 in target share (20.6 percent)

  • WR20 in Air Yards share (35.3 percent)

  • WR14 with Half-PPR goggles (12.5)

While those numbers are a far cry from Davante Adams last season, Lazar was still in the top 24 fantasy wide receivers when he was healthy. Besides, Romeo Dubs is going to miss some time with an ankle injury, leaving Lazard open to become a prime target for Aaron Rogers. And based on his use and performance against Detroit – 16.7 half PPR against a 25% target share – you should be able to trust him as a high-end WR2 with Daubes suspended in the coming weeks.

Running Spins: Fantasy Uses and Efficiency

Top 12 fantasy runners since week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)
Top 12 fantasy runners since week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)

Joe Mixon – Cincinnati Bengals

If you had listened to Fantasy Football Prediction last Friday, you would have heard Matt, Dalton and I discuss why Joe Mixon was one of the most obvious regression candidates. Entering the game last week, he was RB19 with half PPR points per game. However, in terms of usage, it ranked as the best in my model. RB2 with Expected Value Fantasy 16.3 (xFP). And given that his best fantasy final this season was just RB9, it was only a matter of time before Mixon put on an explosive game for fantasy managers.

Fast forward to the end of Week 9 and Mixon has just delivered one of the most effective fantasy performances of the season.

He scored 53.1 half PPR points in 27 opportunities, scoring +29.3 fantasy points higher than expected. It was a truly historic game, as Mixon became one of only eight runners since 1950 to score over 200 yards in scrimmage and five touchdowns in a single game.

Naturally, Mixon will most likely return to earth in the 11th week after their goodbye. But given his huge weekly offensive use by Zach Taylor, he should stay on the edge of the top five running back into the second half of the season.

Jeff Wilson Jr – Miami Dolphins

Just when the fantasy managers were ready to invite Raheem Mostert in a circle of trust, Jeff Wilson Jr. decides to ruin the party.

In an undervalued deal last week, the Miami Dolphins reunited Wilson with his former coach, Mike McDaniel. And while he was expected to end up involved in this backfield, I’m not sure anyone could have predicted that Wilson would become this is actively participated in his first game. In Week 9, he earned a higher opportunity share (23.1 percent) and target share (10.3 percent) than Mostert, finishing the week as a RB10 with half a PPR.

This is especially true for Mostert’s growth potential, given that he has averaged a 30% opportunity share since week 4. Unfortunately, this backfield is likely to become a committee in the future, lowering the fantasy threshold for both Mostert and Wilson as we head into the second half of the season. .

Tight Ends: Fantasy use and effectiveness

Top 12 Tight Fantasy Ends Since Week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)
Top 12 Tight Fantasy Ends Since Week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)

Dallas Goedert – Philadelphia Eagles

One of the most popular questions I got from last week’s column was about Dallas Godert’s ranking in my Expected Fantasy Points metric.

Why didn’t he make it into the top 12 in expected fantasy points before the start of week 9?

Without boring you with too much detail, Gedert has relied heavily on yards after catch this season. In fact, coming in last week, he was TE31 in Average Depth of Target (ADOT), but TE1 in Post-Catch Yards. We have seen historically that higher ADOT (or air yards) usually results in more fantastic points. Therefore, my usage model prefers hard ends – for example, Pat Freiermuth or Mark Andrews — which are often targeted in the far field.

With that in mind, Goedert usage has actually improved over the last couple of weeks. After only 63 yards in his first four games, Gedert set a season-high rushing yards last week with 85 yards. 9.

Assuming these trends continue, Goedert’s fantasy floor and ceiling will only get better, making him one of the most reliable tight ends going forward.

Quarterbacks: Fantastic Usage and Effectiveness

Top 12 Fantasy Defenders of Week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)
Top 12 Fantasy Defenders of Week 9 (data provided by nflfastR)

Lamar Jackson – Baltimore Ravens

It’s been a tumultuous season for Lamar Jackson. In addition to J. K. Dobbins as well as Rashod Bateman landing on injured reserve, Mark Andrews also dealt with various injuries over the past couple of weeks. As a result, Jackson’s fantasy production has declined slightly since his early season dominance.

After finishing back-to-back with QB1 totals in weeks 2 and 3, Jackson was only QB16 in fantasy points per game over the past six weeks. Naturally, his passing game suffered greatly, averaging only 5.7 adjusted yards per attempt. That would put him 32nd among all quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts.

On a positive note, his rapid rise continues to fuel his fantasy, ranking QB2 in rush share (29.7 percent) since week 4. We saw the value of his rushing ability again last week in New Orleans, when Jackson threw the ball just 22 times but still finished QB10 with 82 yards. So as long as he continues to dribble at high speed, Jackson will remain a weekly QB1.

However, we should probably temper our expectations as the injuries he sustained while receiving weapons will likely limit his ceiling for the remainder of the season.

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