Thanksgiving is almost here and we have some great games planned this year. We’re going to go deeper into each match and find the best players to start and sit – sleepers and dropouts in all three games.
Fantasy football is based on matches. While you formed your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly roster decisions should not be determined by the order in which you select your players. – and not those guys over there.
It’s still too early to tell which matches will be easy and which are difficult, but we can make some educated guesses based on healthy lineups, defensive formations, track record and key offensive details. What we know can help us minimize the impact of what we don’t know. This should lead to better decisions.
We’ll go through every Thanksgiving game and highlight players that aren’t obvious starts and places (because you don’t have to speak to start Justin Jefferson). You should feel more comfortable starting or seating players based on the information provided and feel comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start – the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
LAST WEEK: Was a solid safety valve for Josh Allen, knocking down Cleveland defenses and turning to catch a shot when Allen was under pressure. This resulted in a share target of 28%, his highest mark of the season (previous high: 17.6% in Week 4 against Baltimore).
KNOX: In each of his last two games, he has at least six targets. It should not be overlooked that his surge in performance was due to Josh Allen’s elbow problems and subsequent ADOT below 9.0, which he continued to have in most of his games.
LIONS: I didn’t have to defend a tight target last week because the Giants didn’t bother to throw one, but in the last three games they’ve given up a tight end touchdown in two of them. If you’re setting the PPR benchmark with nine points, then you should know that the Lions have allowed at least that many to tight ends in 8 out of 10 games.
SLAYTON: Leading all healthy Giants in hitting in each of the last four games (Van’Dale Robinson had more hits against the Jaguars and Lions, but finished this year). Slayton has posted at least 11 PPRs in each of his last four.
SLAYTON: The number of snaps in the last two games has risen to 45% of the total number of snaps in several weeks in a row. Given that Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs is unlikely to play as a nickelback, it’s safe to say that the Giants will use Slayton there.
COWBOYS: Allow second largest YAC/Receive to recipients that line up in a slot (6.44). The slot boys also threw 5 of 11 total receiving touchdowns allowed by Dallas.
COWBOYS: Nine wide receivers have scored at least 11 PPRs against them this year, including three in their last four games.
LAST WEEK: According to the supposed shot count, Elliot made 15 carries and caught the target. Those 16 full touches came in 21 snaps, so he may have actually been on the snap count, but that didn’t stop him from seeing a lot of work. Elliott averaged 2.8 yards per rush and was saved by a couple of one-yard landing jumps.
Touchdowns: All but one of Zeke’s six touchdowns this year were from within one yard. And of his 22 rushing touchdowns since 2020, only five have been six yards or further.
ELLIOTT: While he’s not getting yards per carry like you would like, he has a minimum of 15 carries in 6 out of 8 games and a minimum of 47 yards in every game.
GIANTS: Entered last week with only four rushing touchdowns allowed to runners and only one from five yards or closer. They then faced Jamaal Williams and the Lions and now the defense has given up eight touchdowns to RB in a season with five from five yards or closer.
LAST WEEK: The Cowboys’ onslaught was unstoppable, especially after Christian Darriso, who started with a left tackle, suffered a concussion. Under pressure, Cousins completed 4 of 11 passes for 40 yards and was fired seven times.
THIS SEASON: Cousins was equally miserable when under pressure, with a total of 42.3% completions, -0.42 EPA/drops, 3.3% TD rating and 64.4 QB ratings over 155 hits. The Vikings have allowed pressure on 37.7% of their dropouts this season, fifth most in football.
PATRIOTS: ninth in blitz speed (30.6%) and second in pass rush speed (37.6%), so casinos should expect some heat. It doesn’t help that the Patriots allowed only three quarterbacks to score a few passing points all year, and two of the three scored exactly 20 Fantasy points.
HISTORY: Cousins has seen the Belichick defense twice in his career, and both times he made at least 40 passes. He threw one touchdown in every game, had at least one interception in every game, and couldn’t even get 225 yards in every game.