Five props that pop for Super Bowl LVII, all about the Kelce brothers
Donna Kelche has appeared as the breakout star of Media Week. From a custom-made sports jersey to handing out freshly baked cookies, she has captured national attention. Her sons Jason and Travis Kelsey will be the first brothers to ever fight in the Super Bowl on Sunday.
Decades of transporting kids to and from training, packing snacks, and ending house brawls seem to have paid off handsomely for the Kelche family. With plenty of Kelce-focused player props available, this could also pay off for fans of the brothers and their respective teams.
Welcome to Props that Pop: TJ2K Edition! Using the Sportzshala metrics database and some help from a statistician. Kyle Soppewe reveal two props for each brother and end it with a face-to-face bet.
Travis Kels 76.5 OVER receiving yards
Talk about a match of strength against strength! Kelche dominated the position, gaining 1,000 yards for the seventh consecutive year, averaging 78.7 (TE1) yards per game. But the Eagles’ pass defense is a closed unit that allows them to lose 5.5 yards per try. Which projects should have a scoring game (51.0) with a lot of meetings, however, my money is on Kelch to provide a bag.
No wonder the 33-year-old works harder when he has more free time between competitions. In fact, Kelce averaged 81 yards per game when he rested more than the required six days between Sunday-Sunday regular season efforts. To that end, he converted 10 of 15 looks for 133 yards the last time he competed in the Super Bowl. And that’s against Tampa Bay’s top five passes.
In addition, Kelce has scored at least 14 targets in over 23% of the 26 games in which he has received an extended rest. He will see the whole volume! Even with the aDOT reduced, he expects to clear the above marker and should flirt with 80 yards.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 25.5 completions
Speaking of aDOT reduction, the Eagles defense boasts the fourth lowest aDOT. This means he doesn’t throw a lot of deep balls. It may not be great for passing yards, but it works well for counting completions.
Mahomes’ connection to Kelsey is undeniable. Kelche drew 30% of the team’s total goals. Specifically, he recorded a target share of 27.5% for balls thrown from less than 10 yards. As the Philadelphia defense picks up steam, Mahomes looks to break through the above line using Kelsey (and JuJu Smith-Shuster). To that end, the stellar QB managed to complete 28.9 per game as he targeted Kelce at least 10 times. Assuming Kelsey reaches double figures in the biggest game of the year (he averaged 9.7 hits per game during the regular season), then Mahomes should surpass 25 completions.
Kenneth Gainwell to score TD (+255)
As stated in my SBLVII Props that Pop issue, the Eagles have their own short scores. Not only did Philadelphia record the highest percentage of 1-yard touchdowns (25.6%), they also ranked fifth in 1-yard scoring (10) in 2022. This is the merit of Jason Kelsey and the leader of the Eagles. – six-rank blocking unit.
Gainwell has come alive in the postseason, managing double-figure carries in his efforts. After a season-high 14 sweepstakes, he believes he will be in the game on Sunday and should capitalize on the aforementioned efficiency of the O-line at the goal line. TD chances become more likely as the Chiefs fight defensively in the red zone. Kansas City was below average in scoring, finishing 31st in red zone defense.
Jalen injured OVER 50.5 yards
I’m already on Hurts with over 10.5 rush attempts. With senior Kelsey helping up front, his ultra-mobile QB should take full advantage of the amount and quality of running. It was the standard for the Hurts, who averaged 73.6 yards per game on 10.5 carries per season. He also has at least 57 yards in six of those eight games.
The amount of Hurts dashing also increases in close combat. He has averaged 14.5 carries per game in eight single-digit games this season. On those eight tries, he also averaged 66.6 yards. The spread in this game is 1.5 points, which suggests that Hurts will regularly rely on his best qualities to push his team to victory.
Travis Kelsey (receiving yards) vs. Jason Kelsey (snaps)
This match conveys all the vibrations of the ceiling and floor. This is sibling rivalry at its best!
Travis averaged 79.7 yards per game. Meanwhile, Jason averaged 64.8 shots per competition. I already reviewed Travis on the 76.5 yard receiving, so you’ll know which way I’m leaning. However, it’s worth noting that Jason’s season-high snaps have reached 79. In a game that favors the Eagles, Jason’s snap count should skyrocket, but I don’t think it will go over 70 snaps.
Jason reached his highest total shots in 2022 in Week 4 against the Jaguars (78 shots) and in Week 12 against the Packers (79 shots). The Eagles were victorious in both of those attempts, beating Jacksonville by eight points and Green Bay by seven. It makes sense that in the winning effort, Jason would stay on the field while Philadelphia controlled the pace and kept the opponent’s offense out of the way. But, as repeatedly discussed above, this game cannot be a breakthrough.
Ultimately, Travis may be the winner of this promotion… but Jason walks away with the ring.
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