Giant Killers’ 10 most likely first-round upsets in the 2023 men’s NCAA tournament

Who’s ready to pick some frustration?

Now that we know the field for the 2023 men’s college basketball tournament, you’re trying to find that 12 out of 5 disappointment everyone knows is coming. If you’re like us, you also need numbers to back up that hunch.

Giant killers are here for you. Returning to the 17th consecutive Boeheim-style NCAA Tournament, the Giant Killers is our probabilistic prediction for March’s bad luck.

You can read all the details if you want, but the idea is pretty simple. The Giant Killers start with a base probability of failure from the Sportzshala College Basketball Strength Index and add on the strengths, weaknesses and styles of the two teams in every game.

As always, Giant Killers only consider matches with a line difference of at least five seeds (e.g. No. 11 over No. 6 in the first round).

We know there will be upsets. Our model is here to try and detect them early.

Here are the 10 most likely Giant Killers first round losses.


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