NBA draft stat-based projections, and why Scoot Henderson is nowhere near the top
How statistically do the best prospects look in action during the NCAA Tournament Draft? The college postseason is starting in earnest, and it’s time for our annual first look at my player predictions for the upcoming NBA draft.
This year, college applicant numbers have been overshadowed by four of the top five in the top 100 prospects, Sportzshala’s Jonathan Givoni playing elsewhere: Victor Wembanyama in the French LNB Pro A league, Scoot Henderson in the G League Ignite and twins Amen and Ausar Thompson in overtime work. Elite.
However, from a statistical standpoint, this appears to be a relatively strong group of overnight prospects. In particular, Alabama’s Brandon Miller played well enough to earn serious attention and take second place behind Wembanyama.
My predictions translate results at NCAA Division I and other levels into NBA equivalents and then adjust for age and position to estimate a player’s worth over the next five seasons. Finally, I add a top 100 rating for the best consensus forecast.
See here for more details on how my predictions work and past examples.
Please note that I do not have predictions for the Thompson twins, who are currently ranked fourth (Amen) and fifth (Ausar) respectively in the top ten.
1. Victor Vembanyama