NBA Western Conference Playoff Picture: Lakers control play-in destiny; Nuggets nearly a lock for top seed

The NBA playoffs and play-in races are heating up, with only about a month left on the schedule. Below is a full overview of how things are going in the Western Conference, which will come into play on Monday, March 6th. This post will be updated daily for the remainder of the regular season or until all seeds have been collected.

A reminder of how the play-in tournament works: No. 7 plays No. 8 and No. 9 plays No. 10. The winner of the 7–8 game gets the No. 7 seed, and the loser plays the winner of the 9–10 game for the No. 8 seed.

READ: Eastern Conference Playoff Photos

NOTE: Developed by Data Prediction Engineer Steven Oh, our SportsLine model simulates the entire season 10,000 times to provide the most objective and accurate predictions imaginable.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

1. Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets would have to go in absolute tank to blow up the No. 1 seed. With 18 games to play, they effectively lead the Grizzlies by seven games with a secured tiebreak.

• Projected Seed: 1
• Current match of the first round: TBD
• Tie-break against No. 2 Memphis: Denver won
• Tie-break vs #3 Sacramento: Season series tied 1-1 with one player
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: Denver leads the season 2-0 with two players

2. Memphis Grizzlies

The Memphis seed seems weak now that Ja Morant is out indefinitely. In 19 games, the Grizzlies lead the No. 3 Kings by one in the losing column and the No. 4 Suns by four. On the other hand, Memphis has the easiest schedule in the league.

• Projected Seed: 2
• Current match of the first round: Mavericks/Clippers game winner
• Tie-break against No. 1 Denver: Nuggets won
• Tie-break vs #3 Sacramento: Kings currently own via conference call
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: Grizzlies own through division leader

3. Sacramento Kings

The Kings have won seven of their last 10 games and are just one game behind the No. 2 Grizzlies. The Kings are three games ahead of the Suns, but there are still two head-to-head games ahead. In our SportsLine model, the Suns eventually passed the Sacramento for third.

• Projected Seed: 4
• Current match of the first round: vs Timberwolves
• Tie-break against No. 1 Denver: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break against No. 2 Memphis: Kings currently own via conference call
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: The Suns are leading 2-0 with two more to play.
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: Warriors lead 2-1, one player left

4. Phoenix Suns

After the Durant trade, the Suns are 3-0 and have a great chance of beating the No. 3 Kings, who are three games behind with two head-to-heads left. The Suns lead the Warriors at number 5 in scoring in three games with a secured tiebreaker.

• Projected Seed: 3
• Current match of the first round: against warriors
• Tie-break against No. 2 Memphis: Grizzlies own through division leader
• Tie-break vs #3 Sacramento: Phoenix leads 2-0 with two to go
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: The suns entrenched
• Tie-break vs. Timberwolves #6: Sans leads 2-1, one player remains
• Tie-break against No. 7 Dallas: Suns currently own through conference win percentage
• Tie-break vs. Clippers No. 8: Sans leads 2-1, one player remains

5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors continue to struggle on the road, losing to the Lakers without LeBron James on Sunday in Los Angeles. But they have won five of six and hold a one-loss lead over the #6 Wolves and #7 Mavericks.

• Projected Seed: 5
• Current match of the first round: against the suns
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: The suns entrenched
• Tie-break vs. Timberwolves #6: Warriors lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break against No. 7 Dallas: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs. Clippers No. 8: Warriors lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one man
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: Warriors won

6. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves share the loss record with the No. 7 Dallas and only one lead over the No. 8 Clippers and No. 9 Jazz. The good news is that the Wolves have a tiebreak over both of these teams, so the airbag is effectively two games long. The race to stay above the line will be intense. SportsLine doesn’t like Minnesota’s chances of making it.

• Projected Seed: 7
• Current match of the first round: in kings
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: Sans leads 2-1, one player remains
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: Warriors lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break against No. 7 Dallas: The wolves grappled
• Tie-break vs. Clippers No. 8: The wolves grappled
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: The Wolves currently hold the division record
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: The wolves grappled

PROGRAM TOURNAMENT

7. Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have lost six of their last 10 games and have slipped below the play-in line, tying the No. 6 Wolves in the losing column, who own the tie-break. Dallas is just one game behind the No. 5 Golden State but only two games ahead of the No. 11 Lakers.

• Projected Seed: 8
• Current match of the first round: vs. Clippers (beat)
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: Suns owns by conference win percentage
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs. Timberwolves #6: The wolves grappled
• Tie-break vs. Clippers No. 8: Dallas currently holds the conference record
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to go
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to go
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Dallas leads 2-1 with one to go

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are two behind the No. 5 Warriors, one behind the No. 6 Wolves, and just one behind the No. 9 Pelicans, No. 10 Jazz, and No. 11 Lakers. Our SportsLine model loves, to be above the play-in line.

• Projected Seed: 6
• Current match of the first round: in Mavericks (game)
• Tie-break against Phoenix No. 4: Sans leads 2-1, one player remains
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: Warriors lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break vs. Timberwolves #6: The wolves grappled
• Tie-break against No. 7 Dallas: Mavericks currently owns via conference call
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: The Pelicans are leading 1-0, it remains to play together.
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: jazz clinch
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Clippers won

9 New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans is tied with the No. 8 Clippers, but also just one game behind the No. 10 Jazz, No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Thunder, and No. 13 Blazers.

• Projected Seed: 9
• Current match of the first round: against jazz (game)
• Tie-break vs Golden State No. 5: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one man
• Tie-break vs. Timberwolves #6: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break against No. 7 Dallas: Mavericks lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: jazz clinch
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Los Angeles leads 2-1 with one to go
• Tie-break against No. 12 OKC: Pelicans won
• Tie-break vs Portland No. 13: Pelicans lead 2-1 with one man

10. Utah Jazz

SportsLine’s predictions do not suggest the Jazz will be out of the lottery for long. In the loss column, they are tied with the No. 11 Lakers, No. 12 Thunder, and No. 13 Blazers.

• Projected Seed: Lottery
• Current match of the first round: in New Orleans (game)
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Jazz Clinched
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Jazz leads 2-0, two players left to play
• Tie-break against No. 12 OKC: Thunder leads 2-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs Portland No. 13: Blazers lead 2-1, one player left

OUTSIDE VIEW INSIDE

11. Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers took a big win over the Warriors on Sunday and are trying to stay in that race long enough for LeBron James to return. In the losing column, they are tied with the No. 10 Jazz with two head-to-head matches left, so they are in control of their destiny there. They are also only one behind the No. 9 Pelicans, and the remaining head-to-heads. If they won this game, it would also block the tiebreaker with the Pelicans, meaning the Lakers are in control of their own destiny too.

• Projected Seed: 10
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Lakers lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: Jazz leads 2-0, two players left to play
• Tie-break against No. 12 OKC: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs Portland No. 13: Blazers currently own through conference winning percentage

12. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are very active in the game hunt, sharing a losing column with the No. 10 Jazz and just one behind the No. 9 New Orleans.

• Projected Seed: Lottery
• Tie-break vs. No. 9 New Orleans: Pelicans won
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: OKC leads 2-1 with one to go
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs Portland No. 13: OKC won

13. Portland Trail Blazers

In the losing column, the Blazers are tied with three teams above them, including the No. 10 Jazz, who they still play once again.

• Projected Seed: Lottery
• Tie-break against No. 10 Utah: Blazers lead 2-1, one player left
• Tie-break against the Lakers at number 11: Blazers currently own through conference winning percentage
• Tie-break against No. 12 OKC: Thunder shrink

EASTERN CONFERENCE

1. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are two games ahead of the Celtics in the losing column. They will play again on March 30, and the season’s series will be 1-1. The Bucks are ahead of the third Philadelphia by four in the losing column, which seems pretty safe with 18 to play.

• Projected Seed: 1
• Current match of the first round: TBD
• Tie-break against No. 2 “Boston”: Draw 1-1 with one to play
• Tie-break vs Philadelphia No. 3: Sixers lead 2-1, one player left

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics have underperformed the Nets and Knicks in their last two games and are now trailing the best-seeded Bucks by two in the losing column. Boston is two games ahead of No. 3 Philadelphia, but the lead is actually three games, with Boston winning the tiebreaker. The Celtics need to be safe to finish no worse than third as they lead the Cavaliers at number 4…