The competitiveness of the NFL and the betting drama are at an all-time high. This is not an opinion, this is a fact.
Eighteen games were decided by three points or less, the most in three weeks. The opening weekend blew us away with missed field goals and wild finishes, and the chaos only continued. So what does this mean for betting?
Three is a key number in the NFL Handicap because it is the most common limit to win. It’s always been that way, and it still is, even though the league pushed back extra points in 2015 to encourage 2-point conversions. After this rule change, 14.8% of games were decided on exactly three points. The next closest margin is 7 from 9%.
The number you need to know
However, 10 out of 48 games were decided by two points or less (20.8%). Perhaps compounding the difficult result is the fact that performance is the lowest since 2006. So, if more than one out of every five games has less than a couple of points, does that mean we should pay more attention to the difference between 2 and 2.5 points? ?
“Not. One and two are never connected. Always around three. That’s a small sample size,” SuperBook head, NFL sportsbook and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons, told Sportzshala. “I guarantee you that at the end of the year, when you check everything, the numbers will look like usual.”
With scoring, the underground followed suit. In the first two weeks, 68% of the games went under the final result. However, the market corrected on the 3rd week, and we saw that exactly half of the games were in the red.
Let’s see if there are more narrow wins and low-scoring games in Week 4.
Denver Broncos – Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 45)
Sunday 4:25 pm ET Allegiant Stadium, Paradise
The Raiders are the only team in the league with a 0-3 score, so naturally I’m willing to put points against a 2-1 team chasing the Super Bowl. Betting on the NFL rarely makes sense, and this is one example. Las Vegas is obviously a lot better than what one would imagine without wins, but the Raiders also have a lot of downsides. The question is whether they will react in this virtual situation of a mandatory victory. I’m sure they’ll be fine against the Denver defense, which was solid but a bit overpriced compared to last year. However, one would think that Russell Wilson and the Broncos offense would find their rhythm at some point. I just hope not this Sunday.
To choose: Raiders -2.5
The linear course of the week
Kansas City Chiefs – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday 8:25 pm ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa.
“Sunday Night Football” offers us Patrick Mahomes vs. Tom Brady. It also provides the biggest inconsistency of the action, in addition to some interesting line moves. Approximately 75% of all bets were placed on Kansas City. However, the same percentage supports Brady at home. Keep in mind that this game has faced a potential relocation, so some of the action during the week may have centered around the house rules I mentioned on Saturday.
Due to the potential move, Kansas City opened as the short road favorite, meaning Tampa Bay would lose home field advantage, which is built into point difference. However, the bookmakers moved the line towards PC once the league announced that the game would remain in South Florida. Sharp money also influenced this course of the line. The Bucks are now a one-point home favorite, even though the public is heavily backing Kansas City.
As always, the pros get the best of the lot because the bookies react aggressively to their bets. Such is the nature of the beast. In fact, most operators welcome their actions so that they can articulate their responsibility accordingly. Obviously the pros can be both sides of the same game, but I’d say that’s their consensus: Steelers -3, Cardinals +1, Seahawks +4, Colts -3, Patriots +10.5 and Vikings/Saints up to 43.5.
Pick: Josh Allen for 1.5 assists TD (-240)
Here we go again. The bookies refuse to treat bet favorite MVP the same as Mahomes, so I’ll keep firing on that. Now the juice is finally catching up. -240 corresponds to 71%. He cashed that mainstay in the first half in all three games. I will play again because I think we will see a shootout in Baltimore. In addition, Buffalo ranks third in red-zone calculated passes and scoring shots. But obviously shop around and see if you can find a lower juice.