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NFL betting: In parity-rich NFL, underdogs are dominating against the spread

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All you have to do to make healthy profits in three weeks this NFL season is bet on the underdogs.

That’s all. Close your eyes, bet on every NFL underdog, make a profit.

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The Outsiders had another big Sunday. The favorites were just 4-9-1 against the spread in Sunday’s games. At this point in the season, the underdogs are 27-18-2 against the spread, based on This is 60 percent.

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If you can find a betting trend that’s as simple as “betting on the NFL underdogs” and it goes up to 60 percent, you’ve done very well.

The Outsiders Had a Big Week 3

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Week 3 began with the beloved Cleveland Browns taking on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Then Sunday came and the dogs took over.

The only favorites on Sunday were the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Rams.

Eight outsiders not only covered, but also won. It would have been nine out of nine had the Detroit Lions not taken a last-minute lead over the Minnesota Vikings. The Lions didn’t fall behind until 45 seconds were left in the game.

All other outsiders immediately won. What a day for underdogs betting on the money line.

The biggest underdogs to win outright were the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins, though technically the Jacksonville Jaguars were the biggest when betting on them when they were 7-point underdogs before that line dropped to + 3 on Friday. The Colts closed at +4.5 after briefly +7 during the week. They beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the last minute. The Dolphins also closed +4.5 against the Buffalo Bills after being +6 for the week. They held on to win 21-19.

There was some sweat, especially on the money line, but the underdogs held their ground. They’ve been three weeks now.

Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods hit two touchdowns to lead the Chiefs in Week 3.  (AP Photo/AJ Mast)
Indianapolis Colts tight end Jelani Woods hit two touchdowns to lead the Chiefs in Week 3. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Why do outsiders cover?

NFL trends change throughout the season. Betmakers are quick to adapt to teams and other trends, and they usually level off over time.

However, there’s a good reason the underdogs cover up, and it should be reliable this season or any NFL season.

The NFL wants parity, and every season we get closer to having every team hit .500 last week. The Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles were the only 3-0 teams remaining after Sunday (the New York Giants could improve to 3-0 on Monday night). There was one 0-3 team: the Las Vegas Raiders. For the first time since 1959, when the NFL had 12 teams, there is only one 0-3 team. according to ESPN statistics and information.

If 85-90 percent of the league is somewhere between 2-1 and 1-2 — the difference between the 25th best team in the NFL and the fifth is not as big as you might think — scoring seems like the right game to play. Or just skip the points and take the money line on those losers.

If you think the start of the season was crazy, it was. The odds will adjust to that. But don’t expect this season’s underdog trend to go away.


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