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NFL betting: Ranking each potential Super Bowl matchup from least to most likely

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We’ve made it to the NFL Divisional Playoffs, which means there are only seven games left in the NFL season. Only eight teams still survive in the fight for the Super Bowl title. On Sunday evening, that number will drop to four. While teams still need two more wins to get to the big game, it’s not too early to look at how the betting market is going to play out.

At BetMGM you can currently bet on which two teams you think will win the Super Bowl. Odds are adjusted based on the likelihood of both teams making it there. Obviously, the less likely the match, the higher the chances. Let’s take a look at the current odds at BetMGM.

Ranking of potential Super Bowl matches

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Which potential Super Bowl matches do the bookmakers consider most likely? What about the least likely? Let’s take a look at all 16 potential matches, ranked from least likely to most likely.

16. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants

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The Jaguars and Giants had clear wins as underdogs during the wildcard weekend. Both teams lose by touchdown in this round. If any of the teams survive this weekend, they will once again be a significant underdog in the conference championship game.

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Chances: 150-to-1

15. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville should have passed Kansas City as an 8.5 underdog and then set up another upset against Buffalo or Cincinnati. Dallas loses to the team by 3.5 points. San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round.

Chances: 66-to-1

14. Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Giants

This weekend in Buffalo against the Bills, the Bengals are well behind at 5.5 points. If they beat Buffalo, they will be underdogs against the Chiefs if KC advances, although the Bengals will be the house favorite against Jacksonville. Cincinnati has a tough road to the Super Bowl but has a better chance of getting there than the Giants, who need to beat Philadelphia and then either San Francisco or Dallas.

Chances: 60-to-1

13. Buffalo Bills vs. New York Giants

Again, the likelihood of the Giants winning the Super Bowl reduces those odds. The Giants are 11-to-1 to win the NFC. Buffalo has the edge in making the conference championship game. A potential rematch with Kansas City is likely to be seen as a draw. These odds are more reflective of New York than Buffalo.

Chances: 35-to-1

12. Kansas City Chiefs vs New York Giants

The Chiefs are currently the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but the chances of the Giants being their opponent in this game are pretty low.

Chances: 30-to-1

11. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jacksonville wins the AFC 11-1, making it the biggest chance of winning the conference. San Francisco is one of the NFC favorites. If the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl, it’s likely that they will face any team in the AFC other than Jacksonville.

Chances: 28-to-1

10. Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the NFC favorites along with San Francisco. both teams leave with +160 odds to win the conference. The appearance of Philadelphia in the Super Bowl will not surprise anyone, but its rival in this game, Jacksonville, will certainly be a shock.

Chances: 28-to-1

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati and Dallas are losing on the road this weekend with a field goal. While it wouldn’t be a shock if one of the teams won, bookies don’t expect it. Assuming both #1 seeds keep pitching, the Cowboys and Bengals will once again be underdogs in the conference championship game. Both teams are talented and it wouldn’t be surprising if they were successful, but both teams have chances against them.

Chances: 22-to-1

8. Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Bills have a very big test against the Cincinnati Bengals this weekend, and if they play the way they did last week, their season will likely come to an end. However, the bookies preferred Buffalo to go into the conference championship game. A potential rematch against the Chiefs would be epic and likely a draw on neutral ground. According to bookies, Dallas is the third most likely NFC team to make it to the Super Bowl.

Chances: 14-to-1

7. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys

Kansas City is a significant favorite to advance to the AFC Championship. Once the Chiefs get there, they’re in for a big test either in Cincinnati or Buffalo. The Chiefs are favorites to win the AFC. However, the bookies do not see Dallas as the most likely potential opponent in the Super Bowl.

Chances: 13-to-1

6. Cincinnati Bengals vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Bengals represented the AFC in the Super Bowl last season. +350 to get to that point again. Those odds are below Kansas City and Buffalo. The San Francisco 49ers have not lost since October and are one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl outside of the NFC.

Chances: 10-to-1

5. Cincinnati Bengals vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Odds are that Philadelphia and San Francisco have a roughly equal chance of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, so it’s not surprising that the odds of a potential Bengals-Eagle matchup in the Super Bowl are exactly the same as a potential Bengals-49ers matchup.

Chances: 10-to-1

4. Buffalo Bills vs. San Francisco 49ers

The Buffalo Bills were favorites to win the Super Bowl for most of the season. However, at this point in the playoffs, they have second chances to win both the Super Bowl and the AFC. San Francisco +160 to NFC win, but most likely he will have to win on the road in Philadelphia.

Chances: +600

3. Kansas City Chiefs – Philadelphia Eagles

The Kansas City Chiefs are favorites to win the Super Bowl. and the Philadelphia Eagles are number one in the NFC. On paper, you might think this would be the most likely Super Bowl matchup, but it has been pushed out a bit.

Chances: +600

2. Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles

If Kansas City doesn’t make it to the Super Bowl, the next most likely AFC representative will be the Buffalo Bills, according to odds. If we get a Bills-Eagles Super Bowl match, those two fan bases could endanger civilization in the two weeks leading up to and right after the game.

Chances: +600

1. Kansas City Chiefs – San Francisco 49ers

Based on the odds, the most likely matchup in the Super Bowl will be a three-year-old Super Bowl rematch. Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers will have a chance to get revenge on Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reed and the Kansas City Chiefs. It makes sense. Kansas City is the current favorite to win it all. San Francisco has won 11 games in a row, and if the 49ers make it to the Super Bowl, that streak will go up to 13. I don’t think any neutral observer will complain about this Super Bowl game.

Chances: +550

Will we have a rematch between Andy Reed and Kyle Shanahan in the Super Bowl to determine the NFL champion? (Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)


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