When the NFL announced it was playing its first regular season game in Germany, we all laughed at the game: Seattle Seahawks vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
It will surely be a breakthrough. Why force German fans to watch such a bad team?
We defeated the wrong team.
There is no valuable statistic showing that the Buccaneers are better than the Seahawks, who we’ve been making fun of all offseason. Seahawks – 6-3; Bucks 4-5. The score difference is +21 for Seattle and -2 for Tampa Bay. The Seahawks are better net yards per game, a favorite statistic of some analysts. Seattle is fifth in the DVOA Football Outsiders and Tampa Bay is 10th. The list goes on.
However, there is one significant aspect in which pirates are considered better: the spread of points.
The Buccaneers are the favorite with a three-point lead. at BetMGM for the game on Sunday morning in Munich. It’s confusing.
The market hasn’t adjusted to how good the Seahawks are. Last week they were underdogs with two points against a poor Arizona Cardinals team. The Seahawks destroyed Arizona. As with Tampa Bay, there was no reasonable way to claim that Arizona was the best team. At least Arizona had the home field advantage, unlike the Pirates this week. The Seahawks are good. Deal with it.
Tampa Bay’s problems are well known. The Buccaneers beat the Los Angeles Rams last week, but just about every NFL fan saw the game in the late afternoon. The Buccaneers were terrible on offense for 59 minutes. The defense was good, but the attack didn’t work until the last 44 seconds. One good ride doesn’t mean they’re on the right track.
The bookmakers may not like the Seahawks having a second away game in a row, but it shouldn’t affect the points difference that much. Money was flowing into the Buccaneers all week. This week they changed from the Buccaneers from -1.5 to -3.
I’ll take the team that is better by any reasonable measure. Weird things happen all the time in the NFL, and it might be a strange outcome. But make no mistake: if the Buccaneers beat the Seahawks, the worst team will win.
Here are the spread selections from week 10 of the NFL season with spreads from BetMGM:
Falcons (-2.5) over Panthers
As discussed in today’s Daily Sweat, it’s possible we’ll get a better game on Thursday night than we expected.
Accounts (-3.5) above Vikings
Obviously Josh Allen’s elbow injury hangs over this game. I’ll take the bills anyway. If Allen plays, the line is too short. If Allen isn’t playing, Case Keenum is capable, and I like to take on teams – especially talented ones like Billy – that will rally around their support. If Allen is eliminated and the line goes to the Vikings, don’t be afraid to take the discounted Buffalo.
Lions (+3) over Bears
I like the way Justin Fields plays, but they are still an imperfect team that just traded two of their best defenders. I don’t know if I trust the Lions either, but last week against the Packers they played well and well.
Broncos (+2.5) over Titans
Defense of the Titans played a lot of games last Sunday night. The Broncos said goodbye and they should have felt better leaving London with a win. My blind faith team for the second half is Denver. I don’t have many good reasons to support this, but I think otherwise they do a good job with ATS.
Jaguars (+9.5) over Chiefs
The Chiefs are very good and the Jaguars are not, but we can pretty much brace ourselves for the Chiefs’ spreads to be inflated in the era of Patrick Mahomes. Last week, the Titans scored too many points and covered them, and it feels like too much for the Jaguars.
Dolphins (-3.5) taller than Browns
Not entirely sure what I’m missing. Dolphins are good. When Tua Tagovailoa played, they were clearly in the top ten. Maybe I don’t have enough money for the Browns. Extended statistics show that they are better than their records. But I think the Dolphins are still underrated and I’m going to do it.
Giants (-5) over Texans
The Texans are probably the worst team in the NFL. I don’t necessarily feel good supporting the Giants with more than three or four points, but they are a lot better than the Texans.
Saints (-1.5) more than Steelers
It will probably be a disgusting game. Do you remember that top net yards per game? The Saints are surprisingly ranked sixth in the NFL. The Steelers are the last to die. It’s embarrassing to support the Saints as away favorites, but I’m not sure we really understand how bad the Steelers can be.
Raiders (-6) more Colts
Earlier this week I wrote about how Josh McDaniels absolutely cannot lose this game to the Colts traveling circus. I just can’t support a team whose head coach will be the seventh day of his career (no, I don’t attach much importance to Jeff Saturday’s high school coaching career) and whose offensive player no one has really heard of. until this week. Not that the Colts were good even before this week got crazy. If the Raiders are not covered here, we will know what to do with them until the end of the season.
Packers (+4.5) over Cowboys
Mike McCarthy’s revenge game! I think the Cowboys are strangely out of the picture and it’s hard to support the Packers these days. Green Bay has also played three away games in a row and it’s not an easy moment. Being at home will help. I assume most bettors will bet on Cowboys, so I’ll go the other way.
Rams (-1.5) beat Cardinals
Two broken NFC West teams. If the Rams lose at home to a bad Cardinals team, we expect them to probably have the worst season for any reigning Super Bowl champion. I’m not quite ready to go there with the 2022 Rams yet.
Chargers (+7) over 49ers
It’s a pretty big place for 49ers. They are on Sunday evening. If they can smash a failed but still 5-3 Chargers team, it will be a signal that San Francisco is going to dominate the second half of the season. You’ll hear a lot of San Francisco Super Bowl hype next week if they win by double figures. Already this line gives them such respect. I don’t rule out the 49ers being in the top 5 for the rest of the season, but I’d like to see a bit more from them first.
Commanders (+11) over eagles
You’ve heard it before: I default to any two-figure NFL underdog, and I need to be coaxed into backing the favorite. This match definitely tests the limits of this strategy.
Last week: 7-4-2
Season to date: 72-61-1