Congratulations to everyone who bet on the Philadelphia Eagles! And if you’ve played for the San Francisco 49ers, at least Christian McCaffrey’s bet on TD paid off every time. Meanwhile, the start of Arrowhead was slow. By the end, however, the corn and props burst.
My win percentage stayed above 50% throughout the season. But I would like to finish well with the perfect Sunday list. Let’s roll up our sleeves and demonstrate. Using the Sportzshala metrics database and some help from a statistician. Kyle Soppewe’re protecting the bag as we close the 2022 NFL season.
Kansas City Chiefs – Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5, 51)
Sunday, 6:30 pm ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona.
Choice: More points after the break than before (-145)
Before we dive into the details of the Chiefs and Eagles, let’s take a look at Super Bowl trends over the past 10 years. The average depth to target (aDOT) in the first half of the Super Bowls played from 2013 to 2022 was 7.88 yards. However, in the second half of competitions held during the same time span, that number jumps to 9.74 yards. But that is not all. The score in the red zone also increased from 51.4% in the first 30 minutes of the game to 61.8% in the last quarters of the game.
Given the stakes associated with the big game, it makes sense that the opposing attacks will become more aggressive as time runs out. It also makes sense that the defense allowed more goals as they got more tired. This is true for Philadelphia and Kansas City as both defenses are in the top half of teams in the red zones allowed in the first half of games (meaning fewer points allowed), but both fall outside the top 20 in the second half of the competition. (meaning more points).
The Eagles have been in the lead for most of this season. Because they haven’t been chasing points often, the teams’ performance in the first and second half doesn’t differ much from each other. However, the chances of buying time in a 1.5-point contest against the Chiefs are much slimmer, especially since Patrick Mahomes has a penchant for heroism in the late game. Statistically, this is evidenced by the fact that his yards per completion jumped from 11.5 in the first half of games to 12.3 after the break this season.
Pick: Jalen Hurts OVER 10.5 rush attempts
To quote my favorite researcher, “it hurts a lot of math.” Thirsty Kyle is 100% right. Hurts’ talent is hard to quantify. Even though I expect an increased level of passing, it’s hard to believe that the Hurts legs won’t be featured.
After all, 85% of his postseason runs were planned (compared to 60% in the regular season). In particular, Hurts organized 10 races last week in San Francisco. Regardless of the game scenario, this number remains stable against the Chiefs, a defense that lost the third most quick attempts (94) to QBs in 2022.
Pick: Isaiah Pacheco OVER 11.5 snatches
Pacheco extra. I’ve been saying this since the summer. The man is running the way I feel after stepping on a Lego. (Parents, you feel me.) This assertive running style pairs beautifully with the Eagles defense, which is 28th in the YAC rating allowed for RB.
Besides, Andy Reid trusts the newcomer. He touched the ball three times in the Chiefs’ first five games last week. He has also cleared that number in eight of his last 11 games. This trend will continue, especially given the limitations of Mahomes’ ankle. In fact, the all-star QB only managed six transfers in the entire postseason. This is a significant failure considering that Mahomes has averaged five carries per playoff appearance in his career through 2022.
Choice: DeVonta Smith OVER 5.5 receptions
Here’s a small argument for you. Smith ended his campaign as a sophomore under a fantasy WR9, hitting 95 (WR9) balls for nearly 1,200 yards. He also outperformed receiving players’ expectations with a 78.6% (WR2) rate. In addition, he was one of only three players to score eight or more goals in 10 consecutive games (the other two were Ja’Marr Chase and Chris Godwin).
Interestingly, Kansas City allowed an opposing player to catch six or more passes 24 times during 2022. With Smith over/under 50, there will be many opportunities for Smith to capitalize on this trend. And I like his conversion chances, especially since he has recorded only one fall in the last eight games (70 goals).
He also has an aDOT of 9.9 yards per game (WR65) in his favor. This may not bode well for his total yards, but it reduces his catching difficulty and helps him fly to at least six grabs. It doesn’t hurt that Kansas City ranked fifth in catches under 10 yards per game. Cha ching!
Choice: Juju Smith-Shuster OVER 3.5 moves
Smith-Schuster averaged 4.9 catches and 58.3 yards per game during the regular season. Assuming he’s back in training and ready to go Sunday – as current reports show – he believes he will remain Mahomes’ second favorite in the passing game (behind Travis Kelsey). He certainly won his quarterback’s trust, as the former Steeler hasn’t recorded a fall since week 10.
In fact, Smith-Schuster led the Chiefs’ receiving corps in goals (101), 20 hits ahead of Marquez Valdez-Scantling during 2022. With Mekole Hardman in IR and Kadarius Toni with an ankle injury, volume should continue to drop. his favor.
There’s no doubt that the Eagles’ pass rush will be hot, forcing Mahomes to check. This is a common occurrence for offenses faced by second-rate Philadelphia players, as evidenced by the fact that the defense boasts the fourth-highest ADOT against. While this is problematic for the Chiefs’ passing game in general, it sets up Smith-Schuster well, who posted a DOT of 6.21 yards in weeks 11-20 (a 25.8% drop from weeks 1-10). Plenty of quick and short passes on Smith-Schuster in terms of close and scoring performance, giving him ample opportunity to convert four goals.
Bonus
Choice: Eagles To Score First/Eagles To Win (+170) OR Chiefs To Score First/Chiefs To Win (+210)
Choose your fighter, friends.
You think the Eagles are raising the Lombardi Trophy? Then bet that they will score first and win at better odds than the basic moneyline bet (-125). If, however, you believe that the Kingdom of Chiefs will rule again, then speculate on Kansas City to strike first, earning yourself extra dough (+105 ML).
Both teams took the win by dominating the red zone early on. Philadelphia won 12 of 14 times (12 of 13 with the Hurts in QB) when they found the end zone before their opponents. Meanwhile, Kansas City scored the first goal with a score of 12:0.
Pick: Haason Reddick OVER 3.5 tackles
The fresh addition of Reddick after a year in the Carolinas helped revive the Eagles’ second-to-last offense in sacks (29) a season ago. Temple’s product has managed at least one sack in seven of his last eight games. I like the odds of him hitting the sack on Sunday (-170), but the odds for four tackles are solid and the payout is at the best odds (+116).
While averaging three tackles per game during the regular season (49 total, 35 solo), the burst of aggression makes sense given the stakes in the competition. This becomes even more likely when examining linebacker use in the postseason. Reddick took just 2 of the 113 shots (1.8%) covered over the last three competitions. Obviously, the chances of a tackle increase dramatically if it is closer to the line of scrimmage.
Choice: Shortest TD in the game UNDER 1.5 yards.
Short scores up. In fact, each of the last seven Super Bowls has had at least one touchdown from the 1-yard line. Jalen Hearts dominated the goal line. His success partly explains why the Eagles recorded the highest percentage of one-yard touchdowns (25.6%). In addition, Philadelphia finished fifth in 1-yard scoring (10) in the regular season. My Iggles money to play again on Sunday.
Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF
Source: www.espn.com
