Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Thanksgiving brings with it a number of trends and traditions: the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys play on this day every season. Recently, the trends have been against the two masters. Dallas is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving games, while the Lions are 3-11 ATS and 0-14 in their last 14 Thanksgiving underdogs.

The Cowboys are looking to continue the trend of big favorites lighting up Thanksgiving. Since 1995, teams with at least 7 points have 22-5 ATS on Turkey Day.

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The Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1 ATS) succumbed to the ATS’ worst 10-game start by reigning Super Bowl champions since 1997. With Matthew Stafford officially eliminated, the Rams became the first defending champions to be at least 14 years old. outsiders. The two previous defending champions closed as underdogs with 13.5 points. Both won outright.

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While the Rams are rarely underdogs, a couple of other teams are in new favorite roles. The Miami Dolphins have been playing their favorite role since 2003, including against the Houston Texans. Miami, a loser back in 2003, is looking to avoid defeat on Sunday. Meanwhile, since 2018, the New York Jets have played their all-time favorite role as they host the Chicago Bears.

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Season Notes

  • Home teams: 5-8-1 ATS (76-82-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: 7-6-1 ATS (68-87-6 ATS this season)

  • Favorites: There hasn’t been a week over .500 this season.

  • Overs: 8-6 (94-68-2 this season)

  • Best ATS team: Tennessee (8-2); eight straight covers

  • Worst ATS team: Los Angeles Rams (2-7-1)

  • Best team: Cleveland (7-2-1)

Notable changes to title odds

  • Dallas: 14-1 to 10-1

  • Cincinnati: 30-1 to 25-1

  • Tennessee: 35-1 to 28-1

  • Minnesota: 11-1 to 16-1

  • Los Angeles Chargers: 35-1 – 45-1

  • New York Giants: 60-1 to 80-1

  • New York Jets: 60-1 to 100-1

  • Green Bay: 80-1 to 125-1


Buffalo Bills (-9) at Detroit Lions Thursday at 12:30 pm ET.

  • Dan Campbell has a 17-10 ATS as a Detroit head coach, including a 13-4 ATS as an underdog of at least four points and a 7-0 ATS as a home underdog of at least four points (4-3 SU).

  • All five Buffalo away games this season have been understated.

  • Detroit won and covered three games in a row.

  • Since 2004, Detroit is 3-11 ATS and 0-14 as an underdog at Thanksgiving. Detroit’s last disappointing Thanksgiving victory came in 2003 over Green Bay (+7).

  • Detroit 0-6 ATS as an underdog of at least 7.5 points on Thanksgiving in the Super Bowl era.

  • Since 1995, teams with at least seven Thanksgiving points have been ranked 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS in the last 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS in the last seven times).


New York Giants – Dallas Cowboys (-9), Thursday, 4:30 AM ET.

  • The last time a team with a .700 win percentage was an underdog by at least 8 points was in Week 10 or later in 2007, when New England were a 10.5-point favorite over Pittsburgh (9-3). Over the past 25 seasons, these underdogs are 0-6-1 ATS (2-11-1 ATS over the past 40 seasons).

  • Dallas has played four home games in a row (4-1 this season) and is a 3-0 home favorite this season.

  • Dallas is 9-2 ATS against New York since 2017, with three straight coverages.

  • New York has been 7-0 ATS in short rest games since 2020, all with Daniel Jones in the starting lineup.

  • New York is 5-1 and ATS is the underdog this season. The only time New York has been an underdog for at least a touchdown was against Green Bay in week five (+9).

  • Dallas is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 Thanksgiving games. Dallas has lost outright as a Thanksgiving favorite in each of the past three seasons. The Cowboys have won by at least 6.5 points in two of their three losses.

  • Since 1995, teams with at least seven Thanksgiving points have been ranked 22-5 ATS (18-4 ATS in the last 20 seasons; 6-1 ATS in the last seven times). However, last season, Dallas lost to Las Vegas as the 7-point favorite for Thanksgiving.

  • Division players this season are 32-18-1.


New England Patriots – Minnesota Vikings (-3) Thursday at 8:20 AM ET

  • As of 2016, New England has a 14-1 ATS in short rest games.

  • Since 1990, the home favorites have been 27-16 ATS on Thanksgiving Day (15-5 ATS excluding Dallas).

  • New England have played three consecutive games and three consecutive away games.

  • Minnesota (4-5-1 ATS) and Kansas City (4-6 ATS) are the third and fourth teams in the last 20 seasons to start 8-2 or better but have ATS losing records (Los Angeles Rams, 2018, Baltimore, 2012). ). In 2018 Los Angeles won their conference and in 2012 Baltimore won the championship.

  • Prime time this season is 19-13-1 (107-79-4 in the last four seasons).


Chicago Bears v New York Jets (-5.5) Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • New York has not been a 6-point favorite since Week 10 of 2018 (lost 41-10 as a 7-point favorite against Buffalo). The Jets were last 4-point favorite in Week 14, 2019 (won 22–21 as 5-point favorite against Miami).

  • New York 3-0 ATS after losing this season.

  • New York 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.

  • Five straight games in Chicago topped the total. Five games in a row in New York went into the red.

  • New York has been underdogs in every home game this season. The only other team that loses every game at home is Houston.

  • Chicago is 7-15 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (Justin Fields: 6-12 ATS).


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) to Cleveland Browns, Sunday, 1:00 AM ET.

  • Cleveland is 7-2-1 this season, the best record in the league. Tampa Bay games are 8-2 under (4-0 away).

  • Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games.

  • Tom Brady 12-8 ATS in his career goodbye (1-1 ATS with Tampa Bay).


Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans Sunday at 1 ET

  • Tennessee has played eight consecutive games, the longest active streak in the NFL. Another coverage will tie the second-longest streak in the past 15 seasons, the most recent being Green Bay with nine in a row in 2021. This is the longest streak of coverage in Tennessee since the franchise moved to Tennessee in 1997 (2007-08). Another cover would coincide with his longest streak in the Super Bowl era (9 in a row in 1975 as the Houston Oilers).

  • Tennessee 8-2 ATS, the best record in the league. This is a 6-0 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS since Week 3, the second-best record in the NFL in that span behind Tennessee (8-0 ATS).

  • Tennessee – 10-3 ATS with extra rest under Mike Wrabel (8-1 ATS since 2019).

  • Mike Vrabel is 9-4 and ATS is the home underdog.

  • Tennessee is 3-1 out and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an outsider.


Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins (-12) Sunday at 1 ET

  • Miami has not been a favorite with at least 11 points since the first week of 2003, including against Houston (-14). Miami lost that game outright. Miami’s 314 games without a favorite with at least 11 points is the second-longest active streak in the NFL (Detroit with 425; most recently in 1996).

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-0 straight and 6-2 as house favorite.

  • Houston is 4-1 ATS at least a 7 point underdog this season (2-0 ATS as a double digit underdog).

  • Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.

  • It would be the 22nd straight start that Davis Mills was an underdog early in his career, and the fifth longest early career streak in the Super Bowl era.


Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-3.5) Sunday at 1 ET

  • Washington is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six games, 4-0-1 ATS with Taylor Heinicke as starter.

  • Washington is a 3-0 ATS favorite this season, everyone is a 1-3 point favorite. Heinicke is 4-0 straight and 3-1 ATS as the favorite of his career.

  • Washington is 5-1 ATS against teams with a losing record this season.

  • Atlanta is 7-4 ATS this season. He started 6-0 on the ATS, went 0-4 on the ATS in the next four games, and then beat Chicago last week.


Denver Broncos (-2.5) vs. Carolina Panthers, Sunday, 1 ET.

  • The over/under ratio is currently 35.5. Over the past 10 seasons, only two games have had under-36 totals. In Week 17 of 2019, Minnesota-Chicago closed out 35.5 and Baltimore-Pittsburgh closed out 35. Both games topped the total.

  • Denver is 9-1 this season, the highest record in the league. Denver is the first team to start 9-1 under since 2011, when both Miami and Jacksonville did so. Both of these teams started with a score of 10-1 in favor of the underdog.

  • Denver is 0-4 ATS as the favorite this season.

  • Carolina is 4-2 ATS under Steve Wilkes after being 3-16 ATS in their last 19 games under Matt Rule.


Baltimore Ravens (-4) at the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.

  • Baltimore is 4-1 ATS on the road this season. Lamar Jackson 19-8-2 ATS during his career on the road.

  • Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Jacksonville is 3-7 ATS this season, but ranks sixth in average coverage margins (+3.25).

  • Jacksonville 0-4 ATS against teams with record wins this season.

  • Four games in a row in Jacksonville went under the total. All five home games in Jacksonville this season have been undervalued. Six of Baltimore’s last seven games have been under the total.

  • Each of the last three times Jacksonville have been underdogs at home, they have won a game outright (2-0 this season).


Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05 am ET.

  • Los Angeles is 5-0 on the road this season, the only team not to have lost on the road this season.

  • Los Angeles covered three games in a row.

  • Cliff Kingsbury is 22-12-1 ATS as an underdog with Arizona (10-4 ATS since the start of last season).


Las Vegas Raiders – Seattle Seahawks (-4), Sunday, 4:05 am ET.

  • Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last five games.

  • For the first time this season, Seattle won more than a field goal. Jeno Smith only managed to score a field goal twice in his career (2-0 ATS).

  • Derek Carr is 28-21 ATS as an underdog on the road and 12-7 since 2019.


Los Angeles Rams – Kansas City Chiefs (-14.5), Sunday, 4:25 am ET.

  • No reigning Super Bowl champion has ever been a 14-point underdog. Three were double-digit underdogs. The biggest spread for a reigning champion is 13.5, as Philadelphia 2018 and San Francisco 1995 both had games 13.5 points behind. Both won those games outright.

  • The last time the Rams lost by at least 14 points was in 2016 against Seattle (+15.5) when they were still playing in St. Louis.

  • Kansas City 2-5 ATS at least 4 points favorite…