Joe Mixon’s early exit in Week 11 prevented him from completing the game. Samaye Perin picked up the slack and consequently added 15% in Sportzshala’s fantasy leagues ahead of this weekend. While this situation was frustrating, it was nothing compared to the blow to the stomach that had been delivered by Damion Pierce. Pierce’s bags and footage have been steadily decreasing over the past three weeks. Perhaps swapping Davis Mills for Kyle Allen will improve things, but the outlook is nowhere near as bright as it was a month ago. He is currently ranked RB16 on Sportzshala’s overall rankings.

But enough of the negativity, it’s time to be grateful!

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And I’m thrilled that three of my five props hit the target in week 11. Let’s aim for perfection at this stage.

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Using the Sportzshala metrics database and help from a statistician. Kyle SoppeI’m here to help you win fantasy and books.


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Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) to Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 pm ET, Ford Field, Detroit


Pick: Devin Singletery UNDER 57.5 yards in snatch

It is a trap. Between the match and the game scenario, fantasy managers might be tempted to overestimate the potential production of Singletary. Don’t fall for it.

Buffalo ranks fourth in total successful attempts. The game script does not change this. Accounts also rank first in cross-country ability when they are in the lead. On the rare occasions when a team does make a ground play, running backs rush to the left more than 35% of the time (ninth). Interestingly, the Lions are missing RB in sixth place for the fewest yards on a run to the left (third among all other carries).

Even if this game gets out of control and the Lions can’t cover the nine-point spread, there’s no guarantee the Singleteri will be used to clear. James Cook scored 11 totals in an 8-point win over Cleveland last Sunday. He was also more effective than the Singletary, showing the same amount of yards for 7 fewer carries. This performance should keep the newbie in the game.


Buffalo Bills (-9.5, 54.5) to Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 pm ET, Ford Field, Detroit


Choice: Gabe Davis 55.5+ receiving yards

The problem with Davis has always been volume. However, after Week 7 of Buffalo, Davis averaged over 7 targets per competition. Last week, he managed to reach a season-high target share of 32%. It turns out that feeding a 23-year-old guy is good for crime. Davis has cleared the above line 13 times in his career. In those 13 games, Buffalo has an average lead of 10.7 points. And, who knows, the Bills are Turkey Day favorites with 9.5 points.

The scatter is indicative of a Buffalo offense… as well as a Detroit pass defense. The Lions ranked sixth in deep passing speed (55.1%) and second in average depth on target (aDOT) vs. (8.5 yards). In the aforementioned 13 contests in which Davis scored at least 56 yards, he also posted an aDOT of 18 yards. By that math, he only needs to hit four balls to get into an over, which seems doable given the match and the Bills’ passing approach. He is my WR20 for a week.


New York Giants – Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 pm ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington.


Choice: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 46.5 yards snatch

Jerry Jones doesn’t care about your fantasy team. It doesn’t matter that Tony Pollard does 2.8 more yards per touch than Elliot. Or that he almost doubled Elliot’s yards on the same number of carries last week. Elliot continues to hit double-digit sweepstakes, averaging 3.7 more carries per contest than Pollard.

Elliot has recorded at least 15 carries in six of his last seven games. That’s the same number of sweepstakes he’s faced with a knee problem that has sidelined him for a couple of competitions. Meanwhile, the Giants running back have hit 10 carries eleven times this season (and Elliot hasn’t dropped below that number once in 2022). So volume shouldn’t be a problem. Efficiency, however, may be.

However, those 11 aforementioned RBs add up to an average of 5.5 yards per carry when facing G-Men. Additionally, New York City allows 957 yards (11th) between tackles. That’s an average of almost 96 yards through center per game. Elliot is doing the lion’s share of indoor runs, recording 50 more such runs than Pollard since the start of last season.

Between the game scenario (-10) and the match (NYG allows 4.7 YPC), Elliot can work his way to 60 yards and score points. It’s a low-level RB2/high-end flex for fantasy purposes.


New England Patriots – Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 pm ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.


Choice: Kirk Cousins ​​OVER 0.5 INT

Kirk Cousins ​​has had eight interceptions so far in 2022. Three of them happened in the second week in Philadelphia. That game was in prime time. So is this one. Cousins ​​has been drafted in seven of his last eight primetime appearances.

Quarterbacks tend to throw picks when they are under pressure. New England ranks third in the NFL in terms of pressure (33.8%). Consequently, Cousins ​​missed the target in nearly 28% of pressured pass attempts over the past two seasons. The addition of a talent like Justin Jefferson can certainly boost a signalman’s confidence. However, the Patriots are up for the challenge. New England have allowed the fewest fantastic points to rivals in the last four weeks and just four TDs per position in the season.

Finally, Vegas predicts a close game with a difference of only 2.5 points in favor of the Vikings. After a disastrous performance in Dallas, Cousins ​​most likely feels squeezed and begins to press. One miss and overhits.


New England Patriots – Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 pm ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.


Choice: TJ Hockenson OVER 4.5 receptions

Minnesota likes to play fast. In fact, the Vikings are ranked sixth in passing frequency, fourth in passing frequency when they are behind, and third in passing frequency when they are at least a field goal behind. (Remember, the difference is 2.5 to Minnesota.) This leads to a high number of Cousins’ pass attempts (37.7 per game, QB4). However, noting the insular nature of New England fullbacks, Cousins ​​is likely to focus on Hockenson and add to the already significant amount of opportunities his tight end has. Hawkenson completes the route more than 80% of the time (compared to 74.8% when he was in Detroit). Additionally, since he joined the Vikings, he has attracted at least nine eyeballs in every game, making him the only tight end in the league to score nine-plus goals in three consecutive games. The former Lion managed to catch 66.2% in a season. Nine more are looking at that conversion rate and it closes out the week with six takeovers.

Bonus pumpkin pie prop


New England Patriots – Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 pm ET, US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.


Choice: Jacobi Meyers 54.5 OVER receiving yards

Meyers is not a fantasy star, but a solid flexible option. He’s scored double-digit points in all but two games this year. His numbers have really increased. And I’m not just talking about TD. Meyers YAC per catch increased by 25% in 2022. That’s the key to this matchup as Minnesota lost ninth in rushing yards after a catch this year.

The New England slot manager averages 4.9 catches per competition. Since the start of 2021, when he converted four passes, he has subsequently hit for 60 yards. This total yards increases to 67.4 yards per game when pounding five or more balls. It’s close (that’s why it’s a bonus), but the 5-59-0 statistic line seems within reach, especially when you note that nearly 65% ​​of New England yards are in the air when underdogs start the week.

Follow Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF