NFL Week 12 ATS picks: Pats upset Vikings, Lions play tough with Bills originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
The 2022 NFL season will be approximately 75 percent complete by the time Week 12 games conclude.
It’s hard to believe we got so deep into the campaign. As a result, games are becoming increasingly important for playoff races in both the AFC and NFC, and there’s no shortage of intriguing matches on this week’s schedule.
Here are our top picks for Week 12. All start dates shown are Eastern Time. All betting lines through bookmaker DraftKings.
Buffalo Bills (-10) to Detroit Lions
Time/TV channel: Thursday, November 24 at 12:30 pm CBS
More less: 54
The Lions are actually quite a good football team. They won three games in a row, including an impressive victory over Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers in Week 9.
Can the Lions pull off a shocking loss due to billing? It’s possible, but the more likely scenario is that they keep it closed and cover the spread. Four of Detroit’s six losses were due to a touchdown or less. The Lions are 6-4 this season and have been 13-6 in their last 19 games. Their offense is also quite powerful, ranking 6th in points per game and 5th in total yards per game.
The Bills haven’t been playing very well lately, losing two of their last three games. Josh Allen’s elbow injury is also a concern. He doesn’t look 100 percent healthy.
The Bills should win this game, but it’s hard to see them covering a double-digit spread against a confident Lions team playing at home on Thanksgiving.
To choose: Lions +10
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New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Time/TV channel: Thursday, November 24, 8:20 pm, NBC.
More less: 42.5
Protecting the Patriots is legal. This division ranks 2nd in points allowed per game and 4th in yards allowed per game. it made the Jets offense absolutely terrible in Week 11, allowing just three points and 2.1 yards per game.
Bill BelichickThe defense faces a much tougher Thanksgiving test in a road match against the Vikings. The Vikings are full of elite offensive talent, but they suffered a humiliating 40-3 loss to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins also struggled in prime-time games with a 10-18 career record, including a 3-4 record on Thursday night. The Vikings will also be without Christian Durrisow’s starting left tackle (concussion), meaning the Patriots’ pass rush, which is second in the league with 36 sacks, could see another dominant play.
Patriots bring affive-game winning streak against the Vikings in this matchup and they covered the spread in four of those games. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games this season. The Patriots have every chance to win this game and improve the score to 7-4.
To choose: Patriots +3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) to Cleveland Browns
Time/TV channel: Sunday, November 27 at 13:00 on FOX.
The Buccaneers have struggled this season, but they’ve also won back-to-back games and are ending their Week 11 bye. They will be well rested before the game against the much weaker Browns.
The Browns are 2-5 ATS and 1-6 in a row in their last seven games. The Cleveland defense is also a good counter for the Tampa Bay offense to get back on track. This division ranks 20th in yards allowed per game, 30th in points per game allowed, and 28th in turnovers.
To choose: Books -3.5
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Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) to Tennessee Titans
Time/TV channel: Sunday, November 27 at 1:00 pm on CBS.
More less: 42.5
The Bengals started 0-2 but have since won six of their last eight games, including back-to-back wins in Week 12.
Cincinnati’s powerful offense is starting to kick into high gear and have scored 30-plus points in four of their last five games. As a result, Cinsi is now fifth in points difference with plus-50. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow also threw 13 touchdowns with three interceptions in that five-game span.
The Bengals have also been a great ATS team since last season. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 away games. The Bengals have covered the spread in their previous five encounters with the Titans.
The Titans have played three teams currently in the playoffs and they are 0-3. So far, they’ve been losing on a mostly benign schedule thanks to their opponents in the AFC South Division.
To choose: Bengals -1.5