In Week 4, several top coaches and quarterbacks play rare underdog roles.

Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots take on Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers, with the Patriots currently listed as underdogs by 9.5 points. Belichick has the best ATS record since he joined the Patriots in 2000, and LaFleur has the best ATS record since taking over as head coach in 2019.

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Belichick will face his second biggest underdog role in two decades. If the line closes above double digits, Belichick is looking to equal Lou Saban for the most wins as a double digit underdog in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs. Belichick has a 7-5 straight record as a double-digit underdog (10-2 ATS), making him the only coach in the Super Bowl era with a straight win record as a double-digit underdog (at least 10 games as an underdog).

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Former Belichick student Tom Brady is also currently underdog at home. Brady is 9-3 straight and 11-1 ATS as a home underdog in his career. This marks a 22-game streak that Brady has won, including the playoffs. It was the second longest active streak behind rival quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

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Another quarterback who has had great success as an underdog is Lamar Jackson. Baltimore Ravens 9-1 ATS and 7-3 with Jackson as an underdog with Jackson. The Ravens are home underdogs against the Bills.

The Cardinals are looking to extend a couple of streaks in the Carolinas as Arizona has won seven straight games as the underdog on the road. Meanwhile, Carolina has lost seven games in a row as the favorite.

One streak that seems to be coming to an end is the Detroit Lions’ 26-game streak with no favorite. Detroit is currently the home favorite against Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Lions lost most of the week to the Washington Commanders until the line closed.


Miami Dolphins v Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) Thursday 8:15 pm ET.


  • Miami and Philadelphia are the only teams to start 3-0 in both direct and auto play.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 8-3-1 ATS and 7-5 as an underdog in his career. He is 7-1-1 ATS and 6-3 when he scores at least 3.5 points. Overall, Miami is 13-6-1 ATS as an underdog since Tagovailoa was selected in 2020.

  • This is the first time since 2018 that a team with a score of 3-0 or better has lost at least 3.5 points against a team with a losing record. outsider.

  • All three games in Cincinnati this season went under the total.

  • Primetime is under 7-3 this season and 95-69-3 (.579) over the past four seasons.


Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints, Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (London)


  • Favorites – 18-12 ATS in London games. The top and the smaller are separated by 15-15.

  • New Orleans is 0-3 this season. Dennis Allen 14-25 ATS as head coach.

  • New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last six games as an underdog, but has been 30-15 ATS down since 2014.


Cleveland Browns (-1.5) at Atlanta Falcons Sunday at 1 ET.


  • Both teams went over the total in each of their first three games. The only other team with a 3-0 score is Detroit.

  • Cleveland 8-15 ATS favorite under Kevin Stefanski (2-4 ATS away favorite). This is only the second time Jacoby Brisset has been the away favorite (lost the 5.5-point favorite in the 2019 Indianapolis vs. Jacksonville game).

  • Atlanta is 3-0 ATS this season. Last season, Atlanta was 6-10-1 ATS in Arthur Smith’s first season. Under Smith, Atlanta is 8-5 ATS when they are not underdogs by at least seven points, and 1-5-1 ATS when they score at least a touchdown.

  • Cleveland is 8-2 ATS in non-conference games under Kevin Stefansky.

  • Cleveland has covered 10 of the last 11 meetings since 1978.


Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 1:00 pm ET.


  • Baltimore has been losing 14-2 (9-7) since 2018, including a 9-1 start from Lamar Jackson (7-3).

  • Lamar Jackson has lost 2-0 at home in his career. Baltimore has been losing 5-0 (3-2) at home since 2019.

  • Baltimore is 12-2-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 as of 2019.

  • John Harbaugh 29-19-2 ATS as underdog by at least three points.

  • Josh Allen is 20-10-1 ATS in his career on the road.


Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5), Sunday at 1pm ET.


  • Since the start of last season, Dallas has been a 10-3 ATS favorite, 7-0 ATS in divisional games and 12-2 ATS in conference games.

  • Ten of the last 13 meetings went total.

  • Cooper Rush is 3-0 and ATS in his career as a starter, though this is the first time he has gained the upper hand. The only quarterbacks to debut in the last 20 seasons and start 4-0 both clean and ATS are Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trevor Simian.


Seattle Seahawks – Detroit Lions (-4.5), Sunday, 1:00 pm ET.


  • Detroit recorded a 26-game streak without a favorite (the longest active streak in the NFL). Detroit has not been a favorite by at least four points since 2019.

  • Detroit is 3-0 ATS this season and 14-6 ATS under Dan Campbell. Campbell has 2-3 ATS unless he is underdog by at least four points (12-3 ATS by at least four points).

  • Detroit topped the total in all three games. The only other teams to have topped totals in all three games are Atlanta and Cleveland.

  • Geno Smith is 22-15 ATS in his career, including a 5-2 ATS since leaving the New York Jets.

  • Seattle 44-27-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll.


Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) vs. Houston Texans, Sunday, 1:00 AM ET.


  • Los Angeles – 0: 3, as a favorite on the road under the leadership of Brandon Staley.

  • Davis Mills 5-2 ATS as a home underdog with three straight covers.

  • Houston is 2-0-1 ATS this season, one of only four teams without an ATS defeat.

  • Houston covered five straight conference games.


Tennessee Titans to Indianapolis Colts (-3) Sunday at 1 ET


  • There are eight games in a row in Indianapolis, including all three this season.

  • Indianapolis is a 0-3-1 favorite and 0-4 ATS in their last four games as a favorite (0-1-1 this season).

  • Tennessee ends 31-14-1 as Ryan Tannehill comes out.

  • Tennessee 4-1 ATS straight and ATS against Indianapolis with Tannehill at quarterback with three straight covers.


Chicago Bears – New York Giants (-3.5), Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET.


  • New York has been the favorite since the start of 2020 with a score of 0-4 ATS. This is the first time that New York has taken advantage in back-to-back games from weeks 15 to 16 of 2019.

  • Chicago is 4-11 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season.

  • Chicago has been on the road with 9-17 ATS since 2019.

  • New York 6-0 ATS on short rest from 2020.

  • Chicago has beaten New York in each of the last three seasons (2-1 ATS), with all three meetings held under the overall score.


Jacksonville Jaguars – Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) Sunday at 1 ET


  • Philadelphia and Miami are the only teams to start 3-0 in both direct and auto play.

  • Philadelphia 3-0-1 ATS as house favorite under Nick Sirianni.

  • Jacksonville is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games, but it upset the Los Angeles Chargers as underdogs by 6.5 points last week. Jacksonville’s last five road games have topped the total.

  • Philadelphia is now one of the favorites to win their conference (+375) after entering the season 11-1 (sixth in odds). The team opened 18-1 (ninth in odds) back in February.


New York Jets – Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5), Sunday, 13:00 ET.


  • Pittsburgh is 0-8 in points in its last eight games, scoring at least 3.5 points (3-4-1 SU), including the playoffs.

  • New York is 3-6 ATS on the road led by Robert Saleh. Since 2017 in New York on the roads 13-27-1 ATS.

  • Pittsburgh has been a 1-5 ATS favorite since the start of last season.

  • All five meetings since 2012 have gone under the total.

  • Pittsburgh is 16-1 with an extra rest since 2017 (8-7-2 ATS).


Arizona Cardinals – Carolina Panthers (-2), Sunday, 4:05 AM ET.


  • Arizona has been losing 7-0 on the road since the start of last season (+12.5 units on the moneyline). This is tied with 1979-80 Seattle for the longest such winning streak in the Super Bowl era. However, Arizona lost a playoff game last season due to being beaten on the road (not covered). Arizona is 9-1 ATS in every regular season road game since the start of last season.

  • Carolina lost seven games in a row as favorites. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the favorite has only had two more straight losing streaks (nine in a row in Seattle 1979-81, eight in a row in Atlanta 2015-16). Carolina 1-9 and ATS in the last 10 games as home favorite with four consecutive losses.

  • Carolina won a nine-game streak in a row and an ATS losing streak, beating New Orleans as underdogs at home by two points last week. Carolina is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games.

  • Cliff Kingsbury 19-10-1 ATS on the road.


New England Patriots – Green Bay Packers (-10.5) Sunday 4:25 AM ET


  • Bill Belichick is 7-5 (10-2 ATS) in his career as a double-figure underdog, including the playoffs. Seven wins tie for second place in the Super Bowl era behind Lou Saban (8). Of the 90 coaches who have played at least 10 games as an underdog, Belichick is the only one with a winning record. He is 4-1 straight and ATS is a double-figure underdog with New England, though the only loss was the only time he didn’t have Tom Brady as quarterback (Brian Hoyer).

  • This is just the second time in the last 20 seasons that New England have been underdogs in double figures (2020 in Kansas City, lost 16 by 11).

  • New England is 59-33-1 ATS after a loss to Bill Belichick, including a 25-5 ATS when he becomes an underdog after a loss (20-10 outright).

  • New England is 0-2-1 ATS this season. This marks the first time in Belichick’s head coaching career that he failed to cover any of his team’s first three games of the season.

  • Green Bay is a 17-7 ATS home favorite under Matt LaFleur, including a 7-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Green Bay is 4-0 ATS as a double digit favorite since the start of last season.

  • All three games in Green Bay this season have gone under the total.

  • Since Bill Belichick was hired by New England in 2000, New England has the best ATS record (204-145-7, .585). Ever since Matt LaFleur was hired to…