It’s been a good weekend to be the “dog” in the NFL. While at most bookmakers both the Bills and Chiefs had victories and covered their matches in Week 3, the AFC Juggernauts not only failed to cover, but lost outright to the Dolphins and Colts, respectively. Despite having the Chargers-Jaguar line plummet due to Justin Herbert’s injury, Jacksonville smoked Los Angeles on the road to also snatch victory.
Now we need to see if the Dallas Cowboys can be the last “dog” to win when they take on the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Monday Night Football to wrap up week three.
As we wait for this game to begin, it’s never too early to take a look at what’s coming in Week 4. let’s see what they can tell us about who the bookies think comes out on top.
Early chances for 4 weeks
(All lines from Caesars bookmaker, all games on Sundays unless otherwise noted)
Dolphins (3-0) to Bengals (1-2), Thursday
Cincinnati Bengals -3.5
opening line: Bengals -4
That line opened at the Bengals 4 back in the spring, but more recently moved to the Dolphins as they got off to a surprise 3-0 start, including a home win over Buffalo. On the eve of the third week, this line fell to Bengals -1.5, but began to recover, and as of Monday morning it is at Bengals -3. At some point late Sunday night you might even land Dolphins +2.5 at +105. Now on both sides of the -110 line.
Miami is 3-0 ATS this season and has an ATS plus/minus of +7.7. The Bengals were able to pick up their first win of the season against the Jets in Week 3 and will now return to Cincinnati, where they are 4-1 in the last five games in the ATS.
Vikings (2-1) and Saints (1-2)
Minnesota Vikings -2.5
opening line: PC
It was peak in the spring and was held all summer. After the second week, Minnesota became a 1-point favorite, and this figure continues to grow. After Week 3, the Vikings were a 3-point favorite over New Orleans, but that has since fallen back to -2.5 for the Vikings. Minnesota rallied late to beat the Lions at home when Kirk Cousins hit KJ Osbourne for a 28-yard touchdown with just 45 seconds left in regulation to lose by three. Meanwhile, New Orleans did not play in the first three quarters against the Carolinas and lost to their opponent from the NFC South, 22-14.
New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this season, but Minnesota isn’t faring much better as they hold the 1-2 ATS mark in Week 3.
It is important to note that this game will be played at a neutral venue and the game will start on Sunday in London.
Browns (2-1) to Falcons (1-2)
Cleveland Browns -1.5
opening line: Browns -2.5
The Browns were 3-point favorites last Wednesday and basically stayed in that range throughout Sunday’s game. On Monday, however, things began to shift towards Atlanta as the Browns are now the 2.5-point favorite on the road at +100. The Falcons have been very player friendly this season, boasting a 3-0 ATS record and just won against the Seahawks in Seattle. Cleveland also bet to start the year 2-1 and are entering the game on an extended break from last Thursday’s game. However, it’s worth noting that the Browns are 1-5 ATS in their last six games since the win.
Accounts (2-1) in Ravens (2-1)
Buffalo Bills -3.5
opening line: Accounts -2
Buffalo was a 2-point favorite back in the spring when the schedule was first released and slipped to a 4-point favorite ahead of Week 3. That started to drop a bit in response to the Bills’ loss against the Dolphins and Baltimore’s victory over New England on Sunday night as the Bills dropped to a 3-point favorite.
It was an odd loss for Buffalo in Miami as they dominated most statistical categories but stumbled a little in the second half, which opened the door for the Dolphins. Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson looks set to have a special five-touchdown season at Foxborough.
Both of these teams are 2-1 ATS in their young season, but the Bills could be here early. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games after a straight loss. As for Baltimore, they are 2-9 ATS points in their last 11 games since the ATS win.
Commanders (1-2) and Cowboys (1-1)
Dallas Cowboys -3
opening line: Cowboys -6
This line opened at Cowboys -6 back in May, but a lot has changed since then. First, quarterback Duck Prescott is out with a thumb injury, and Cooper Rush will most likely replace Dallas center. While there may be more moves after the Cowboys’ Monday night matchup against New York, they were a 2.5-point favorite in the forecast line last week and have since climbed to 3 points on Sunday night.
The Commanders, after a crushing loss to the Eagles in Week 3, had only eight points, and Carson Wentz was sacked nine times. Washington is also 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
Seahawks (1-2) – Lions (1-2)
Detroit Lions -5.5