If week 4 of the NFL season goes about the same as week 3, I might have to take a 14 month vacation to recover because I’m not sure I can handle another craziness. What we saw in week 3 was one of the wackiest football weekends the NFL has ever produced.
I mean, whenever the word “ass” comes up on Twitter during an NFL game, you know it’s all gone off the rails and there’s nothing more insane than a butt safety that somehow happened in week 3 The craziest part about Butt is that it wasn’t even the weirdest security thing that happened on Sunday, and that’s because Jimmy Garoppolo exists.
The video below shows Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, but it could just as well be 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan because I’m guessing that’s how he felt after Garoppolo made himself safe from the Broncos.
By the way, I also react this way every time I miss a peak. Speaking of my choices, let’s get to them.
In fact, before we get to the picks, here’s a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every NFL pundit on CBSSports.com by clicking here, but you’re probably already well aware of that as I mention this every week.
Another thing I mention every week is that you can now hear me on the Pick Six podcast, which is our daily NFL podcast here at CBSSports.com. For the rest of the 2022 season, I will be joining host Will Brinson four days a week (Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday). Even though I only show up four days a week, there is a new episode every single day from Monday to Friday and you should try to listen to it as often as possible.
On Tuesday, which you can listen to below, we covered the Cowboys’ victory over the Giants and spent most of the show debating whether the Giants were any good and how long the Cowboys should let Duck Prescott rest his injured finger since Cooper Rush would never does not lose.
Okay, no more talking about the podcast, let’s move on to the compilation.
NFL Week Four Pick
Miami (3-0) to Cincinnati (1-2)
Thursday 8:15 pm ET (Amazon Prime)
Cincinnati Bengals -4
I’ll be honest here, I don’t even want to pick this game and that’s mostly because I’ve sniffed every Dolphins game I’ve picked this season. In three weeks, I have only picked two teams 0-3, and one of them is the Dolphins (the other is the Browns). With dolphins, I had a zigzag problem: when I think they’re going to zigzag, they’re going to zigzag. When I think they’re going down, they’re going straight. When I think they will lose because they are 21 points behind in the fourth quarter, they win. I think the dolphins are mocking me. I can’t handle it anymore.
In the first week, I chose Miami to lose to New England because Mike McDaniel coached him in his first game and I was sure Bill Belichick would completely embarrass him, but I was wrong. Instead, I dishonored myself with my choice.
In the second week I took Baltimore instead of Miami and have no regrets. With 13 minutes left in the game, I looked like a genius because the Ravens had an insurmountable 35-14 lead that apparently wasn’t as insurmountable as I thought. I now hate the word irresistible and will never use it again after today.
In Week 3, I predicted that Miami would lose to Buffalo, and based on the total score I saw in the game, the Dolphins should have lost 51-13. The Bills threw for almost 500 yards on offense (497 yards) and somehow still lost to a Dolphin team that didn’t get half that rush (212 yards). Here’s how incredible their victory over the Bills was:
Over the past 16 years, NFL teams have gone 2-106 when they are at least 275 yards behind. Two wins:
2020 Dolphins vs Rams (Tua)
2022 Dolphins vs. Bills (Tua)
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) September 26, 2022
I’m not ashamed to take Billy. In fact, if I could do it all over again, I would still play against the Dolphins in all three games. I AM SO RESILIENT. Just kidding, if I had reselected, I would have definitely picked them to beat the Patriots in the first week.
So what am I going to do this week? I think the answer is obvious: I am against the Dolphins. However, I would like to point out that I am not doing this just out of spite at the moment. The biggest problem for the Dolphins is that their defense is slipping every week. In three weeks, the Dolphins have lost an average of 413.7 yards per game, second most in the NFL. You can throw a ball at them, you can throw a ball at them, and Bengals will probably do both.
Not only is this a prime time home game for the Bengalis, but it will also mark the debut of the white tiger helmets and I can’t resist a team wearing white tiger helmets, especially when those helmets are amazing.
At the moment, I don’t even think Dolphins fans want me to pick their team to win. Every time I choose them to lose, they win. I’m not sure what that means for Thursday, but we’re going to find out.
Choice: Bengals 34-27 over the dolphins
Jacksonville (2-1) – Philadelphia (3-0)
13:00 ET (CBS)
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Welcome to Doug Pederson’s revenge game. If you don’t remember the end of the Pederson era in Philadelphia, let me briefly remind you: After a 4-11-1 season in 2020, the Eagles fired Pederson in a basically chose Carson Wentz over him.
It was a crazy decision at the time, but somehow it turned out to be a good move for everyone involved except Carson Wentz. Now the Eagles have a new franchise QB in Jalen Hurts and they’re a lot better overall than they were two years ago. As for Pederson, he got back on his feet in Jacksonville and is already doing wonders there. I mean, this man has only coached the Jaguars in three regular season games, and he already has as many wins as Urban Meyer.
Doug Pederson ranked Urban Meyer fifth all-time in wins by a Jaguars coach.
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) September 25, 2022
If Pederson wants to beat Meyer this week, that means the Jaguars will have to upset the Eagles, giving them a three-game win streak, and I’m not sure we should be rooting for that because Jacksonville has won three games in a row. this is one of the first signs of the approach of the apocalypse. I can’t even remember the last time they won three games in a row. Have they ever won three games in a row?
My research team, which is really just me using Google, told me that the Jaguars have actually won three games in a row, with the most recent being in 2017. However, two of those three wins were at home. The last time they had a three-game winning streak with at least two away wins was in 2013, and that’s what they’ve been able to do this year.
Speaking of the road, the Jaguars have been a disaster almost every time they’ve left Jacksonville over the past few years. They were 1-18 in their last 19 away games, but that single victory went to Pederson.
I have to think that Pederson will do his best to win on Sunday, which means it will definitely be a fridge game for him (in which case you pretend to throw a kitchen sink at your opponent, but instead you throw a fridge). Eagles will not know what awaits them, and they will never know what hit them.
Choice: Jaguars 27-24 over the Eagles
Buffalo (2-1) to Baltimore (2-1)
13:00 ET (CBS)