On Friday afternoon, just after 2:00 pm ET, the point spread in the Jaguars-Chargers game began to fall. The betting market was certain that Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert was unlikely to play.

Sharp money appeared in bookmakers at 14:17 on Friday, which led to a shift in the queue. Within 90 minutes, the Chargers line dropped from -7 to -3, causing some bookies to take the game off the board. On Friday, a New York sports bettor told Sportzshala that a “very good source” said Herbert would not be playing, prompting them to place several four-figure bets on the Jaguars.

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Some bookies believed the move was based on Herbert missing practice on Friday. Others thought it was all speculation. The guessing game will last until Sunday as gamblers and bookies struggle to read the tea leaves.

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Two hours before the start of the match, the author of beats for The Athletic. tweeted that Chargers backup quarterback Chase Daniel was announced as the starting quarterback on a video board at SoFi Stadium “during the game presentation dress rehearsal.”

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“We were sure that [Herbert] wasn’t going to play, and that was apparently confirmed by a pre-game videoboard showing Daniel as a starter,” John Murray, chief executive of SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, told Sportzshala. “We received a warning from a reliable source that Daniel was at home and Herbert was out.”

“If a scoreboard operator puts up a picture of Chase Daniel, it makes a difference,” said Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “It’s pretty crazy. There aren’t many secrets anymore.”

However, an hour later, the Chargers tweeted their inactive list. Herbert was not on it. Shortly thereafter, Sportzshala’s Adam Schefter said that Herbert would start, and the lineup widened again, approaching the Chargers -6.5.

“After the news leaked that Herbert was starting, the money started flowing back as the smart guys put the Chargers at -3.5, -4, even -6,” Murray said.

Herbert started, but the Jaguars won 38–10.

“We really thought he wouldn’t play,” said Andy Morrissey, sports trader at WynnBET. “But he did, and in the end it didn’t matter. The Jags win wasn’t the best decision for us, but we had more important games that day.”

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• The Indianapolis Colts’ disappointment over the Kansas City Chiefs delivered the bookies’ biggest win yet another tough Sunday for early NFL bettors. On Sunday morning, PointsBet reported that there were more bets and more bets on the Chiefs to cover the spread and win the game outright than on any other team earlier in the day.

The upset of the Miami Dolphins over the Buffalo Bills was also a big win for the bookmakers.

“When the two biggest teams, the Chiefs and the Bills, fail, it’s obviously good for the ledgers,” said Caesars’ Pullen.

The players performed well at the Baltimore Ravens, covering a 2.5-point difference in a 37-26 win over the New England Patriots, but there were few winners for the public and far from Sunday.

“It was a great day for us before game night. We need the Broncos tonight for an even bigger day,” WynnBET’s Morrissey said.

The Broncos closed the gap in an 11-10 victory over the beloved 49ers in Sunday’s prime-time game.

• The Eagles and Dolphins and their hot young quarterbacks are making their way into the standings.

Philadelphia is now one of the favorites to win the NFC along with the Buccaneers with +375 on the Caesars Sportsbook. The Eagles went from 25-1 at the start of the season to 9-1 to win the Super Bowl, tied for the fourth best odds.

“Eagles will be a problem for us all year long,” said Tom Gable, director of bookmaker The Borgata in Atlantic City, New Jersey. “Players in this area were already energized for this season even before it started. Given that they had a start, there are not so many non-believers now.”

The Dolphins’ odds of winning the Super Bowl went from 35-1 to 16-1 in the first three weeks of the season. Miami is the only team to have won and covered the difference in each of their first three games.

“I think [the Dolphins] are legal as long as they participate in the shootout, said Craig Macklow, director of sales at Caesars Sportsbook and Dolphins fan. this year [against Miami].”

In addition, shares of both teams’ quarterbacks – Jalen Hurts of the Eagles and Tua Tagovailoa of the Dolphins – are literally rising on online betting site Mojo in New Jersey. Mojo, launched this month, allows customers to buy and sell shares of NFL players based on their career stats.

Hurts’ share price is up 37% this month to $45.22. That’s the biggest price increase for any starting quarterback. Tagovailoa is in second place.

• Week 4 opening lines [via Westgate Sportsbook]

Dolphins in Bengals -2, 48.5
Vikings -2.5, 44.5 vs Saints (in London)
Colts have titans -3.5, 44.5
Bears in giants -2.5, 39.5
Billy -3, 54.5 at Ravens
Chargers -6.5, 54.5 for Texans
Seahawks vs. Lions -6.5, 48
Jets at Steelers -3.5, 42
Jaguars at the Eagles -7, 47.5
Cowboy Commanders -3, 42.5
Browns -3, 46.5 for the Falcons
Cardinals in the Panthers pick ’em, 45
Broncos vs. Raiders -1.5, 46
Packers Patriots -7.5, 42.5
Chiefs -3, 47.5 at Buccaneers

college football celebrities

• Notable opening lines: [via Circa Sports]

Wake Forest in Florida -4, 64.5
NC State Clemson -6, 44.5
Oklahoma State at Baylor -1.50.5
Kentucky vs. Mississippi -4, 55.5
Michigan -9, 41.5 in Iowa
Alabama -17, 60.5 in Arkansas

Bookmaker Caesars opened USC as the favorite for Oregon with 13.5 points last week, while other bookies made the Trojans the favorite with only 5 points.

Caesars quickly abandoned his line when the market for the Pac-12 game took shape, but still bet big on the wide spread underdog Beavers, including $110,000 on Oregon State with +7. At the start of Saturday, roughly 85% of the betting in the game was on the Beavers at Caesars Sportsbook, but that’s about to change. USC won 17-14 but didn’t cover the spread.

“We actually won money in this game,” Pullen said. “You will get a lot of money from USC late because there is a lot of noise behind it. So you know the money will come. We could have won more, but look, our guys are in position in this game. There is nothing wrong”.

• The Rutgers-Iowa total of 34 games was the lowest in a game between FBS and FBS in the last 20 seasons (2004 Ohio, PA).

• Middle Tennessee State was the underdog 23-1, beating Miami, Florida on Saturday. The Blue Raiders never fell behind and prevailed over the Hurricanes 45–31.

• The Louisiana player bet $10,600 that LSU would beat New Mexico -20,000. The player won $53 when the Tigers beat the Lobos 38-0.