Hundreds of like-minded NFL bets hit numerous bookmakers on Saturday night.
Most of them were short and hailed from Michigan, New York, and Virginia. But they were not in the Detroit Lions, New York Giants, New York Jets or Washington Commanders. No, the stream of betting that began on Saturday night and continued into Sunday was, first and foremost, a kicker.
Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM reported that about 500 bets were accepted on Sunday on over/under 1.5 field goals by Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson against the Denver Broncos. All rates were approximately equal. The largest bet at Caesars was $520. No other kicker has attracted more than 26 bets.
Part of Carlson’s betting can be traced back to the 30-year-old New Jersey player who prefers to bet on Ducks and specializes in betting on obscure players. He hosts a show on the Bearded Bettors podcast and has a Patreon blog called Duck Pond. He says he has about 1,900 followers and enjoys handicapped kickers, among other niche markets for props.
“You know the bets that everyone kind of flips through on DraftKings or Caesars and they’re like, ‘Who the hell is betting on this?'” Ducky said with a chuckle during a phone interview on Sunday. “This is what I bet on. I’m making footholds. If there was a support for playing punt, I would do it.
Around 7 p.m. Saturday, Ducky posted a recommendation to bet Carlson over 1.5 field goals, noting that the Broncos had the No. 1 red zone defense and that the Raiders had made at least two field goals in each of their first three. games. Ducky’s post helped spark a torrent of bets.
Johnny Avello, director of bookmaker DraftKings, told Sportzshala there were “a lot” of over bets on Carlson’s support and “only a few under bets.”
“When there is logic, the masses chase and follow it,” Avello said.
Managers at Caesars Sportsbook stated that although there were many more kicker bets than usual, the liability was not big enough to get their attention. Player props are becoming a much bigger part of the action, they say.
“Props are almost all the work,” said Eric Fenstermaker, senior trading manager for Caesars Sportsbook. “Sometimes a group posts ads on Twitter or Reddit or whatever and you get bombarded with limit betting people. So you move those numbers immediately, but something like [Carlson prop]where the tickets are so small it just doesn’t come into our view.”
“You’ll be surprised to see what tickers look like on game day,” added Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “That’s a ton of props.”
Carlson, who entered Sunday with 32 straight hits, scored four in the Raiders’ 32–23 win over the Broncos in what several bookies said was their first Sunday loss of the NFL season.
• After the first three weeks of the NFL season, bettors battled it out in week four, giving several bookies their first loss of the season.
“It was our worst Sunday of the season to date, the day after our best Saturday,” John Murray, chief executive of SuperBook Westgate Las Vegas, told Sportzshala. “Win something, lose something.”
Caesars and WynnBet were also among the bookmakers reporting losses on Sunday afternoon. The Raiders lighting the scatter in their victory over the Broncos, the Cowboys lighting their victory over the Commanders and the Arizona Cardinals lighting their victory over the Carolina Panthers were some of the best games for bettors.
The New England Patriots covering the overtime difference with the Packers was the best game for several bookies, but it still wasn’t enough to get them out of the pit by entering Sunday night’s game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. .
“It’s definitely different from the first three weeks, when the results were pretty solid,” said Pullen of Caesars Sportsbook.
• With Hurricane Ian approaching Florida, the Chiefs were favorites on the road for the week, with a 3.5-point lead over the Buccaneers. The line dropped at the end of the week as the storm passed and Tampa Bay ended up closing as the two-point favorite.
As of Wednesday, 77% of in-game point spread bets were made by the Chiefs at PointsBet. By Sunday morning, everything had changed, and 53% of the money went to the Buccaneers.
“Sharp money has been pouring into Tampa all week,” SuperBook’s Murray said. “We had a bad debut [line], sending the Chiefs -3, and hit early and often. And there was the last series of sharp play in Tampa when they eliminated all those receivers.”
• At PointsBet, players were betting that Aaron Rodgers had over 1.5 touchdowns against the Patriots. Of the hundreds of bets placed on Rodgers’ passing touchdowns, only one was a loser. Rodgers threw two touchdowns as the Packers held the Patriots 27–24 in overtime.
• Players at Caesars Sportsbook took on Josh Allen’s passing touchdowns against the Baltimore Ravens. Under 1.5 Allen Passing TDs have attracted the most bets and the most money compared to any other player. Allen finished with one touchdown in the Buffalo Bills’ 23–20 return win over the Ravens.
• Although the NFL is by far the most popular American sport in UK bookmakers, it still lags behind football. At bookmaker William Hill UK, the New Orleans Saints-Minnesota Vikings moneyline bet was only “1-2%” of the bet on the winner of the Manchester City-Manchester United match, according to William Hill’s head of US sports Chris. Randall. Both games were played on Sunday in London. Moneyline is the most popular way to bet on NFL at UK bookmakers.
On the other hand, Murray said he doubted that a bet on a Manchester City-Manchester United match in Las Vegas equaled even 5% of the action in a Saints-Vikings game.
• Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett made his first regular season appearance in a Pittsburgh Steelers loss to the New York Jets. On Mojo, a New Jersey-based platform that allows customers to buy and sell stock based on NFL career performance, Pickett’s stock price rose 17% from $18.46 to $21.75. At the same time, the share price of player Mitch Trubisky, who was replaced by Pickett, fell more than 13% from $27.03 to $23.36.
college football celebrities
• A player at Caesars Palace in Las Vegas placed a $545,000 bet that USC would beat Arizona State at -4,500. The player won $12,777.80 when the Trojans beat the Sun Devils 42-25.
BetMGM also revealed that they made a big cash bet on BYU’s victory over Utah: $85,000 at -2,500 odds. BYU fell behind early but won 38-26 and the player won $3,400.
These types of bets on big favorites with big money lines are rare, but they happen more often than many people think.
“It can be an experienced player or a regular player with big money,” Pullen said. “A lot of people feel safe betting on a team just to win and don’t have to cover a huge spread. But history shows that doing this in college sports is not the best option. There are failures.”
• A member of New York-based Caesars Sportsbook wagered $10,000 on a two-leg bet on underdogs Florida International (+500) and Georgia Tech (+1050). FIU beat New Mexico State and Georgia Tech upset Pittsburgh for the player to win $680,000.
• Notable college football starting lines (via Circa Sports):
Auburn in Georgia (-28, 47.5)
Texas (-5, 60.5) vs. Oklahoma
Tennessee (-4, 66.5) at LSU
TCU (-5, 50.5) in Kansas
Texas Tech University in Oklahoma State (-11, 68.5)
Utah (-3, 65.5) at UCLA
Ohio State (-23, 61.5) in Michigan
BYU at Notre Dame (-3, 51.5)
Texas A&M in Alabama (-20, 47.5)
• The Air Force beat the Navy 13-10 on Saturday, remaining under 37.5 overall. Since 2001, junior players have been 50-11-3 in Commander-in-Chief Trophy games involving the Navy, Air Force, and Army since 2001, and have been 22-2-1 since 2014, according to Sportzshala Stats & Information.
• The four games that caused the most skew in Caesars Sportsbook on Saturday were Georgia vs. Missouri, Minnesota vs. Purdue, Pennsylvania vs. Northwestern, and Baylor vs. Oklahoma State. All four teams failed to cover the spread and three out of four lost outright.