Thought you had it, Washington state and Oregon state. You too, Wake Forest.
Shots over the goalposts should be worth double the points, Arkansas.
You tried, Indiana and Rutgers. You needed one turn less, Iowa.
I think you still couldn’t get past Kansas State’s weird hex, Oklahoma.
You’ve done well, Maryland and Duke. Not quite sure what happened there, Tulane.
Three weeks into the 2022 college football season, only 33 of the 131 FBS teams remained undefeated. Week 4, odd as it was, cut that list down another 36% as it lost 12 undefeated, including five favorites.
Some of these already former undefeated are still potentially in CFP competition and most of the others are still on their way to great seasons, but our second edition of the undefeated rankings is a little thinner. Most likely, about seven more teams will fall out of this list in the fifth week.
SP+ predicts six undefeated as clear underdogs this week: TCU (28% chance of winning against Oklahoma), Kentucky (35% against Ole Miss), NC State (40% against Clemson), Kansas (40% against Iowa), Washington (42% at UCLA) and Oklahoma State (47% at Baylor) – and gives you eight more chances of winning from 50% to 80%. SP+ reports that with Tennessee out and six undefeated players, 21 teams below 6.7 will suffer losses. This week teasing twenty-one. Next week it will obviously be Terrible Fourteen.
Let’s rank the invincibles!
21. Coastal Carolina
SP+ and FPI ratings: 51st and 84th respectively
Chances of reaching 12-0 on SP+: 3.0%
What did they do in week 4: defeated Georgia State 41-24
Why are they here: To their credit, Jamie Chadwell’s Chanticleers have looked much better since week two when they were lucky enough to take down Gardner-Webb. The offense once again combines excellent running efficiency with Grayson McCall’s ultra-efficient passing – we’ll see if McCall will have to miss time after spraining his ankle against Georgia State – but passing defense is still a major concern. The Chants are ranked 89th in the ANY/A* rankings despite having yet to play a good passing team. This ultimately dooms them, but SP+ gives them a 50/50 chance of making it to 7-0 before heading to Marshall on October 29th.
* Adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) is the average yards per pass that includes sacks and sack length and adds a 20-yard bonus for each touchdown and a 45-yard penalty for each interception. This gives us what we think we get from the passing rating.