For much of the first half of the 2022 NFL season, it looked like Josh Allen was running away with the MVP award. Then the Buffalo Bills lost to the New York Jets, and then again last Sunday in a dramatic loss to the Minnesota Vikings – and Allen’s mistakes were in the spotlight.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes took the lead in that stretch, and Jalen Hurts led the Philadelphia Eagles to an 8-1 start to bolster his campaign. All of them remain in the roster, forming a roster marked by five quarterbacks under the age of 28. With eight weeks left in the regular season, there are plenty of opportunities for the league leaders to stay ahead in the MVP race and other candidates emerge.
We asked a panel of analysts – Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Dan Graziano, Matt Miller, Sal Paolantonio, Jason Reed, Jordan Reed, Mike Tannenbaum, Seth Walder and Field Yates – to vote for the best players in the rankings. Race MVP right now. We then used those 11 sets of ratings to determine the top five candidates, using Heisman Trophy-style scaling for each rating to determine how the field stacked up. We’ll also take a look at a few names whose MVP stock either soared or plummeted early on, and Sportzshala analyst writer Seth Walder also spoke out about a little-known MVP-caliber player. Here’s a look at how things stand before the 11th week.
Note. All odds are listed at Caesars bookmaker.
Top five | just missed
Stock up | stock down
In the radar coverage area
1. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
Statistics for 2022: 2,936 passing yards, 25 TD, 7 INT, 78.6 QBR (215 rushing yards, 1 TD)
Current odds: +120
Mahomes is the MVP betting favorite and has the highest scoring team in the league (30.0 ppg) in line for a seventh straight AFC West title. His 25 touchdowns lead the league, five more than Allen’s 20, the third most in passing touchdowns in the last 15 seasons. The two ahead of him – Tom Brady led with 10 touchdowns in 2007 and Peyton Manning had eight touchdowns in 2013 – both won MVP awards in their respective seasons.
In Week 9 against the Titans, Mahomes had 509 offensive yards and 68 pass attempts (with a 63.2% completion percentage) to lead Kansas City to an overtime win, his sixth win of the season. That night he catapulted to the top of that list. And the Chiefs got their seventh win after the quarterback threw four touchdowns against the Jaguars last Sunday.
At the beginning of the season, there were many questions about how Mahomes would live without Tyreke Hill after the receiver was sold to the Dolphins. Its 78.6 QBR ranks second among QBs and proves that it is more than capable of delivering high-end performance with or without a fast receiver.
2. Jalen Herts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Statistics for 2022: 2,217 passing yards, 14 TD, 3 INT, 63.7 QBR (354 rushing yards, 7 TD)
Current odds: +550
The Eagles’ unbeaten streak ended Monday in a nationally televised game against the Commanders. Had they not lost 32-21, this game would have put Hurts at the top of our rankings for sure. Hurts still threw two touchdown passes and had 175 yards against Commanders’ mediocre pass defense.
Despite a single loss, the 24-year-old went four weeks without an interception (weeks 5-9) and scored his 20th career touchdown in his 28th start. According to research by Sportzshala Stats & Information, this is the second-fewest number of starts needed to reach this mark since 1950 (Cam Newton was second).
3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills
Statistics for 2022: 2,733 passing yards, 20 TD, 10 INT, 74.3 QBR (476 rushing yards, 4 TD)
Current odds: +500
After losing to the Jets, Allen’s MVP chances were further reduced after he threw two interceptions and fumbled the ball in the end zone during the quarterback’s sneak attempt on the Vikings on Sunday, giving Minnesota a defensive touchdown. As a result, Billy was allowed to cut 13 points, a season high. Allen’s injured elbow was in the spotlight early Sunday, but he averaged 7.6 yards per completion in Week 10, in line with his season average of 7.3.
With seven turnovers in the last 10 quarters and 10 of the worst interceptions in the league, Allen, who ranked first on this list after Week 6, must figure out how to bring back the amazing game that makes him one of the best players. the best QBs in the NFL. He should also get Buffalo’s attack back on track in the third and fourth quarters. Scores haven’t scored TD in the second half since they played Kansas City a month ago.
4. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
Statistics for 2022: 2,265 passing yards, 18 TD, 3 INT, 82.6 QBR (35 rushing yards)
Current odds: +500
Tagovailoa has been in tears since returning from a concussion at 7 weeks. He leads the NFL in passer ratings (118.4) and yards per attempt (9.1), and has 18 passing touchdowns (tied for third), despite missing three games. The Dolphins quarterback threw for 969 yards, threw nine touchdowns, and never intercepted the ball in his last three games, including straight 300-yard passes against the Lions and Bears.
All this led to a shift in the AFC East, where the Dolphins overtook the Bills for division lead. Miami has won every game Tagovailoa has started and finished en route to a 7-3 record.
5. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Statistics for 2022: 1,768 passing yards, 16 TD, 6 INT, 65.1 QBR (635 rushing yards, 2 TD)
Current odds: +1200
Injuries to skillful Baltimore players saw Jackson’s passing count drop from Week 7. He fell to second-fastest among QBs after Bears quarterback Justin Fields finished Week 10 with 749 yards. But Jackson’s 7.4 rushing yards is the best in the league.
Midway through the contract year, Jackson has the Ravens at the top of the AFC North with a 6-3 record. While his passing tally – he ranks 21st in passing yards and 18th in yards per attempt (6.9) – is far from what it should be for him to win another MVP title, The Baltimore quarterback continues to prove his worth to the organization. that all his grievances pass through him.
Tyreke Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (+5000)
The wide receiver has never earned an MVP, but the deal Hill is building is drawing attention to him. The Dolphins star leads the NFL with 1,148 receiving yards and 81 catches in 10 games. His 114.8 receiving yards per game makes him the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history, and it’s no coincidence that as Hill grows, so does his quarterback. With just seven and a half games played with Hill, Tagovailoa leads the NFL in QBR (82.6) after finishing 21st in 2021.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings (+8000)
By now, you’ve seen the trick being discussed among the greatest players of all time – the trick that came when the Vikings needed their WR star the most. Jefferson is vital to the Vikings’ 8-1 record and has been hailed as the best wide receiver in the game. He’s caught roughly 70% of his goals this season and recently had 10 passes for 194 yards and an overtime touchdown in a victory over Buffalo. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, nine of those catches had less than a 50% chance of completion, and Jefferson averaged 1.5 yards apart across 16 targets.
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+6000)
Smith is a sure candidate for the NFL Returned Player of the Year award. He was also one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL for a team that looked like it was rebuilding before the start of the season. Smith leads the Seahawks to first place in the NFC West while also ranking fifth in passing (2,474 yards) and touchdowns (17) with the fourth-highest QBR (67.7).
Mika Parsons, LB, Dallas Cowboys (+15000)
The Defensive Leader of the Year pressured opposing quarterbacks in 18.6% of his passes, the most in the NFL. The Cowboys’ defense hasn’t been as devastating in recent weeks, especially against runners, but Parsons is the main reason Dallas is fifth in scoring.
Sakon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (+20000)
Barkley leads the NFL with 931 yards, the second most in nine games in Giants franchise history. His 152 yards in the win over Houston was his second most of the season, and his 227 touchdowns (first) and 1,128 yards in scrimmage (second) are New York’s offense engine.
Also received the top 10 votes: Titans RB Derrick Henry, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Chiefs TE Travis Kelsey, Buccaneers QB Tom Brady, Rams DT Aaron Donald, Eagles CB James Bradberry, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Bills WR Stefon Diggs, Eagles WR AJ Brown, Chargers RB Austin Eckeler, Giants QB Daniel Jones
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (+15000)
Henry’s 923 yards and nine touchdowns rank second in the league, and he’s close to leading in both categories. The Titans have quietly posted a 6-3 record and are in first place in the AFC South with the offense going through Henry. Before Denver found a way to keep Henry at 53 yards (the lowest in four seasons), he rushed over 100 yards in five straight games, including a 219 yard run in Houston in week eight. .
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (+6000)
The Chargers remain on the hunt for the playoffs 5-4 despite a host of injuries. However, this is starting to show as Herbert has been missing top wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for weeks now. He still averages 42 passes per game and ranks in the top 10 in yards (2,450) and touchdowns (14), but without the threat of a rushing attack and a holey defense, Herbert and the Chargers struggle to prove they are contenders.
Walder’s inconspicuous MVP candidate
Geno Smith, QB, Seattle Seahawks (+6000)
Top five quarterbacks with above-average scoring, voluminous version…