Returning production rankings for all 133 FBS teams

Get ready, friends: in 2023, we will be talking a lot about the Knowles. After winning their last six games of 2022 and finishing in double figures for the first time in six years, Mike Norvell and Florida State entered the off-season with the highest-grossing production in all of FBS.

At the moment, BSS returns 87% of last year’s production – 80% on offense (11th overall) and 94% on defense (second place). The Seminoles lead this year’s rankings, while other teams with exciting stories in 2022 also have plenty to inspire. Kansas and the University of California, Connecticut have bowled for the first time in 14 and seven years, respectively, and they rank second and sixth in product returns. Michigan just advanced to the college football playoffs for the second time in a row, winning a second consecutive Big Ten title and finishing in a tantalizing fifth place.

Full SP+ forecasts for 2023 will be published next week. As always, these predictions are based on three main questions: how good is your team lately? How well is he recruited? And who is returning from last year’s line-up?

The last question is the focus of today’s discussion. While high or low return percentages do not guarantee a team will be good or bad, they do correlate well with improvement and regression.

For several years now, I’ve been trying to expand on how we measure product returns. The formula I created changes with each new year of data, and I had to change a bit due to the recent spike in transfers.

Here are the return percentages and ratings for all 133 FBS teams. (Yes, there are 133 teams now. Please welcome Sam Houston and Jacksonville State to the party!)


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