Super Bowl 2023: Five bold predictions for Chiefs vs. Eagles, including an unlikely first TD scorer

It’s finally here. The Super Bowl LVII battle between the NFL’s top playoff players and conference champions, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles, will take place at State Farm Stadium in just a few days. Patrick Mahomes, who just won his second NFL MVP award, will look to break a nine-loss streak to league MVPs who play in the big game as the Eagles look to become the second team in NFL history to win two Super Bowls in Withsix-year period with another quarterback and head coach.

These are two teams built differently. On the one hand, the Chiefs have several key players who returned from their Super Bowl LIV championship team in 2019, including Mahomes, All-Pros first team Travis Kelsey and Chris Jones, quarterback Frank Clark, and others. On the other hand, only Eagles there are seven players on their roster of 53 from the 2017 Super Bowl LII title team: three linebackers, two linebackers and two special teams players. These teams boast All-Pro quarterbacks Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, as well as the most points-per-game scoring offense in each conference. Below, we’ll make five bold predictions for a big game between these two high-flying teams.

1. Kes Watkins scores the first touchdown of the game

Each of those teams has scored the first touchdown in 12 of their 19 games this season, and the Hurts, as well as Eagles Pro Bowl running back Miles Sanders, have each been the team’s top scorer three times. Other Philadelphia players who scored a touchdown in the game included tight end Dallas Goedert (twice), Pro Bowl wide receiver AJ Brown (once), running back Kenneth Gainwell (once), running back Boston Scott (once), and wide receiver DeVont Smith (once)

However, the Chiefs are covering head-to-heads 28.1% of the time this season, the eighth-most in the NFL, and Hurts was the third-most quarterbacks fired (22 times) in the NFL against blitz this season. second only to Russell Wilson (24) and Justin Fields (23). That means it’s no surprise to the Kansas City defense coordinator. Steve Spagnolo send a few man-blitz to the Hurts. However, the Eagles offensive line best in the NFLand one that Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers called “one of the best offensive lines I’ve seen in the last 20 years.”

So when the Chiefs blitz inevitably comes early, expect Kes Watkins, a fast third-year wide receiver with all three receptions for 20 yards or more, to open deep like Kansas City’s defensive keys against Brown, Smith, and Gedert. This will see Watkins waltzing into the end zone after Herts, the NFL’s leader in passing touchdowns of 25+ yards, uncorks another deep shot of the ball.

2 Patrick Mahomes Was Fired Four Or More Times As The Eagles Pass Rush Made History

2022 NFL MVP says his ankle will “definitely be in a better placeafter suffering an ankle sprain in the AFC Divisional Round against the Jacksonville Jaguars due to a gap between the Conference Championship Round and the Super Bowl. However, even with improved mobility, it won’t be enough for him to get away from this Philadelphia pick-up. Mahomes in the 2022 season most dismissals in a game is four times, which is also his record in the playoffs.

This onslaught of Eagles passes will at least equal that number on Sunday, giving them at least a fraction of their record sacks in a single season, including the playoffs. Philadelphia has 78 sacks this season, including the playoffs, which is the third most in NFL history behind the 1985 Bears (80 sacks) and the 1984 Bears (82 sacks). The reason for this is that Philadelphia is the only team in NFL history to have four players record at least 10 regular season sacks this year – Haason Reddick (16.0), Javon Hargrave (11.0), Brandon Graham (11.0). and Josh Sweet (11.0). Naturally, the Eagles led the NFL with a layoff rate of 11.2% in 2022, which means they fired opposing quarterbacks more than 10% of their pass attempts. No other team had this figure exceeding 9%.

Unlike the Chiefs, whose Chris Jones passing threat is head and shoulders above the rest, one guy’s double team doesn’t work against these Eagles. Philadelphia could take the lead sooner — their +137 points difference in the second quarter of this season is the second-best team in the 21st century, behind only the 2019 Super Bowl leader of +138, which makes the Chiefs. The offense is a more one-dimensional, intimidating proposition for Mahomes, who was last seen running in his life in Super Bowl LV against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers after losing 14-3.

3. Travis Kelsey’s eight-game 75+ receiving yard streak ends.

Travis Kelsey is one of the best threat-taking postseason players in NFL history. He is second only to All-Time Greatest Player Jerry Rice in all major playoff pass catching metrics.

Postseason career of Travis Kelsey

		Absolute rating
tricks	127	2nd*
reception yards	1467	2nd*
Getting TD	15	T-2nd*
100+ yard games	7	2nd*

* Jerry Rice tracks in each category

However, the one playoff record that only Kelsey holds is the most consecutive postseason games with at least 75 receiving yards. The last time he was under 75 in a playoff game was the Chiefs’ Super Bowl LIV victory over the San Francisco 49ers to end the 2019 season. The Philadelphia defense is well-equipped to slow Kansas City’s air center considering they allow for the fifth-highest passing passer rating this season, 80.6, and also tied for the fifth-fewest touchdowns allowed. opposing tight ends this season, three.

The reason for the Eagles’ success in covering matches with some of the larger, more versatile pass catchers in the NFL is that just about every supporting player is at the top of the entire league in their respective position.

• CB Darius Slay has won the Pro Bowl in each of the last two seasons.
• James Bradberry’s CB passer rating of 44.5 is the best in the NFL this season among 49 players with 75 or more assists.
• Safety CJ Gardner-Johnson’s six interceptions are the best in the NFL this season.

Philadelphia may give up a few yards en route to allowing multiple touchdowns, but it won’t be because Kelsey beats them.

4. AJ Brown catches TD but doesn’t put in big numbers

AJ Brown hasn’t passed 100 receiving yards since Week 16 with the Dallas Cowboys on Christmas Eve, and don’t expect him to top that four-game streak on Sunday. The Eagles were able to make the playoffs thanks to a heartbreaking offensive line and a multi-faceted game with a possibility of a pass. Brown has seven receiving touchdowns for 25 or more yards, the second most since 2006, so expect him to lose deep and score big and then have a dull evening. The freshman Eagle broke the franchise record for receiving yards in a single season with 1,496 yards, so the Chiefs will be heavily focused on his whereabouts, limiting his total yards.

5. The Eagles win the Super Bowl by 14 points or more.

Philadelphia is currently the Chiefs’ favorite by just 1.5 points, which would mark the fourth-biggest Super Bowl gap of all time. However, they are so well equipped in about each group of positions with Kansas City’s only notable advantage being that they have Patrick Mahomes. It won’t be enough on Sunday, as the Eagles will take the lead early and force Mahomes to run, saving his life as he struggles to get through trying to evade Reddick, Graham, Hargrave and Pot. Philadelphia inflicts Kansas City’s second consecutive Super Bowl loss by a few points and requires a lot of offensive touchdown time thanks to their punitive line and Hurts’ double-threat dynamism in addition to harassing the Chiefs’ offensive line on the other side.

These will be the Eagles 34, Chiefs 20 as they will join the 1976-1980 Raiders as commands only win two Super Bowls in six years with a different quarterback and head coach.