Super Bowl LVII is just a few days away. As we get closer to the weekend, our Sportzshala fantasy football experts will give you some final tips for all your betting needs. They studied and analyzed all league players from a fantasy perspective throughout the season and offered insights into which player props are the most profitable for Sunday’s Super Bowl.
All odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook
Patrick Mahomes, the league’s likely MVP, goes for his second Super Bowl title in his third appearance, while Jalen Hurts tries to end the magical season with his first title in his second season. Looking at the board, what is your favorite two-QB Super Bowl prop?
Bowen: Patrick Mahomes over 25.5 completions. Mahomes has made 26 or more passes in four of his last seven games. And looking at the structure of the Eagles’ coverage – with the idea of how Andy Reid would plan to isolate under the defenders in the coverage area – Mahomes will have opportunities to work at the second level of the field. Higher percentage of shots. And they add up – in a game where I’m sure Mahomes will shoot loudly.
Clay: The Hurts are averaging 29.9 pass attempts per game this season and have not made 25 attempts in any playoff game. Of course, the script of the game plays a huge role here. The Eagles won those playoff games 38-7 and 31-7 and led the league with a league-record 56% offensive snap rate this season. This resulted in a high number of plays (64% in the 4th quarter), but note that Philadelphia otherwise uses first pass offense (10th pass, heaviest in quarters 1-3). The Eagles are a slight favorite against the Chiefs, but it’s expected to be a more competitive game than they’re used to, adding to Hurts’ total pass attempts. By the way, the Chiefs had 617 pass attempts in the regular season (third place), and 13 (68%) of 19 opponents reached 32 attempts. Hurts forecast is confirmed at 33.2. I will take Jalen Hurts due to 31.5 pass attempts.
Clay: Mahomes under 289.5 passing yards. Mahomes has amassed 290 passing yards in 12 (63%) of 19 games this season, but try it for yourself: the Eagles have only allowed over 216 passing yards in one of 19 games. Granted, the schedule wasn’t too intimidating, but 199 yards per game (lowest) and 6.3 YPA (lowest) are about as good as it gets. Coming back to the Super Bowl against Tampa Bay to end the 2020 season, Mahomes has fallen short of 290 yards in eight of his last 10 losses, averaging 270.8 yards per game throughout the period. This is remarkable considering the Chiefs are slightly behind the Philadelphia. The Mahomes projection kicks in at 285 yards, so as long as it’s close, I’m comfortable leaning on even money.
Cockcroft: Hurts over 241.5 passing yards. I agree with Mike that Jalen Hurts is likely to have more shots in this game than in his previous two postseason contests, and while I see a path to an outright Eagles victory, I suspect it will be closer but higher. . -goal, game with big numbers in attack. 241.5 is Hurts’ aggressive bidding record, which he only achieved in 7 of 15 regular season games and none of his two postseason games, but he also faces a defense that should have a hard time holding back wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVont. Smith and tight end Dallas Godert. Patrick Mahomes also has a lot of potential to lure this game into a dynamic and heavy passing game.
Capricious: Mahomes over 38.5 pass attempts. This is Mahomes’ third Super Bowl in four years and the Chiefs have relied heavily on his arm. He has averaged 37.8 pass attempts and 299.9 passing yards per game in the regular season and playoffs since 2019. While the Eagles’ supporting role is huge, Mahomes isn’t going to back down from what brought the Chiefs here in the first place, and it’s a passing game.
Both teams use committees as runners, changing several players depending on the game situation. What have you read about which RBs to bet on during Super Bowl LVII?
Bowen: Boston Scott over 7.5 yards. I love Kenneth Gainwell with a 19.5 rushing yard, but don’t forget Scott, who has rushed over 7.5 yards in six of the last seven games. And we know that the Eagles will use a rotational scenario in the backfield. You need Scott to find daylight in level 2 on one or maybe two carries for this bet to cash out. Run inside the zone behind the front of the Eagles advance. That’s all. It shouldn’t be difficult if you look at Scott’s speed in short sections.
Cockcroft: In situations like this one, with a couple of committee backfields that are hard to gauge, I tend to want hot hands with lower over/under numbers. Kenneth Gainwell excels, easily surpassing his 19.5 in each of his last three games, not to mention his count of 9 of the 18 Eagles carry runners who have reached double-digit yards in that time. Granted, Gainwell did most of his damage later in those games and with a comfortable lead, but it’s worth noting that he had 37 yards in two playoff games while his team was one lead away from their opponent on the scoreboard ( 18.5 yards). average). I see him as an important enough factor to leave. Kenneth Gainwell over 19.5 yards (-115).
In a similar way, Isaiah Pacheco 16.5+ receiving yards (-113) comes in handy considering he’s topped that number in five of his last nine games, not to mention he has to be in a passing game due to the Eagles’ strength at cornerback.
Capricious: Pacheco 64.5+ Yards Snatch + Reception. Mahomes and Kelsey are getting all the attention of the Chiefs, and rightly so, but Pacheco will play an important role. Kansas City can keep the Eagles on their toes by relying on the running game. One thing I’ve noticed about the Chiefs offensive line is that it doesn’t allow you to catch running backs behind the line of scrimmage. Kansas City has a significant advantage with Joe Tooney, Trey Smith and Creed Humphrey in the interior. Given Mahomes’ limited mobility, Pacheco could also serve as a safety valve as an off-field receiver.
There are a lot of questions as to who plays WR for the Chiefs, but we know All-Pro TE Travis Kels will be there. Off-season acquisition AJ Brown and 2021 first-round pick Devont Smith lead Philadelphia. What WR or TE are you betting on this weekend?
Bowen: Longest AJ Brown Reception Over 26.5 Yards. This year, The Chiefs played in the Cover 2 zone in 33% of the shots. This is the basic layout for KC with late rotation and travel. But how much double-deep coverage can you play against an Eagles run game? I expect the Chiefs to have more one-high players and some three-depth zone on Sunday night – to get an extra defender in the box – which will create one-on-one matches for Brown on the perimeter. This is where Herts will make his vertical punches on the border. And don’t forget about Chif’s external pressure. Total Blitz. This is an opportunity for Brown to catch and run on fast slopes and retrieves (without safety assistance).
Bowen: Travis Kelsey over 6.5 receptions. Kelche has had 21 receptions in two Chiefs playoff games and caught at least 7 passes in four of his last six games. And, if we’re looking for a scenario that tells how Kelce could be used against the Eagles’ area coverage schemes, back to Week 7’s game against the 49ers. Clear and replace concepts (to isolate from linebackers), as well as lined routes and midfield shots. And when the Eagles do play the men, we should expect safe player CJ Gardner-Johnson to play the game.
Clay: Dallas Goedert over 44.5 receiving yards. Gedert has 44 yards in 10 (71%) of his 14 games this season. He was a key component of Philadelphia’s offense, having a 20% target share. This includes shares of 21% and 25% in the team’s two playoff games. The Chiefs allowed 802 tight end yards in the regular season, finishing 19th, which shouldn’t give us pause. Gedert projects for 52 yards on 6.6 targets. Cockcroft: I love it when the Eagles have broken at least one long hold given the difficulty the Eagles have had on the defensive this season. Dallas Goedert with 19.5+ yards long (-109) particularly stands out as since his return in week 16 due to a shoulder injury, 18% of his catches have been at least that length, and DeVonta Smith (over 23.5, -111) is also in discussion after 21% of his catches per week. 13 went at least that length of his prop. As Mike mentioned, the Goedert props are probably the wisest over bets, but I feel like the distance related props are bigger than the totals in this game.
Capricious: I prefer Travis Kelsey and DeVonte Smith. Let’s start with Kielce over 6.5 receptions. He averages 9.3 goals and 6.9 receptions per game in the regular and playoffs. Mahomes also leaned heavily on Kelsey in the Chiefs’ two previous Super Bowls. Even though the Eagles have solid secondary players and have done a good job defending tight ends this season, they allow for a high number of receptions, which bodes well for Kelsey to get it over with. Smith over 62.5 receiving yards I’m also intrigued. He has gained at least 61 receiving yards in eight of his last 10 games. In addition, Smith had eight or more goals in nine of them, including double-digit goals in three. AJ Brown is considered by many to be the Eagles’ number one receiver, but it’s actually more of a 1A and 1B situation. As a legitimate deep-ball threat, Smith is well placed to thrive in this matchup.
Super Bowl betting is about much more than supporting QB/RB/WR players. After looking at over 2,000 options, are there any other props you want to use?
Bowen: Josh Sweet over 0.75 bag. The Eagles have an edge passing advantage thanks to Sweet and Haason Reddick. So, let’s go with Sweat to +120 home for a bag…
Source: www.espn.com
