Team USA will play their third game of the 2023 World Baseball Classic on Monday night against Canada. Chicago White Sox right-hander Lance Lynn will get the starting nod for the US team, which was nearly subjected to the mercy rule in Sunday night’s loss against Mexico. Team USA’s record is now 1-1 with two games to play, making Monday’s game close to a mandatory win if the reigning WBC champions look to advance to the next phase.
Below, CBS Sports announced what’s ahead for Team USA and summarized how Sunday night’s defeat makes it harder for them to claim a championship repeat. Before we dive into the specifics of the American situation, we thought it might be helpful to recap how the WBC tournament structure works.
At the first stage of the pool game, 20 teams are distributed over four cells. Each of these five teams in each pool plays each other for a total of four games. The tournament then enters its second phase, with the top two teams in each of the four pools advancing to a best-of-one elimination eight-team tournament. In other words, the team that wins three knockout games in a row becomes the ultimate champion.
It’s clear? Good. Now let’s be more specific about the US team and what awaits them.
1. Remaining schedule
As mentioned above, this initial phase of the WBC involves playing one game against the other four teams in the group. Team USA has already played Great Britain and Mexico, leaving them dates against Canada and Colombia.
- Canada, Monday, 22:00 ET.
- Colombia, Wednesday, 22:00 ET.
The Americans will meet the Canadians on Monday evening and rest on Tuesday. They will then play Colombia on Wednesday night. In its current form, this game may have “win or return to spring training” bets.
2. Current pool picture
On Monday, the US team received a lot of help from the UK. After looking superior in the first two games, the British upset Colombia, opening the way for the Americans to their own destiny. Here’s how pool C stacks up after the UK’s failure with Colombia:
| Team | victories | Losses | Remaining games |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Canada |
1 |
0 |
3 |
|
Colombia |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Mexico |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
USA |
1 |
1 |
2 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
2 |
1 |
Canada still has a big part of the tournament ahead of it, so Pool C will continue to shape in the coming days. Despite Monday’s surprise victory over Colombia, we can say with a high degree of certainty that the UK will not move forward. On Tuesday night, they will face Mexico in the fourth and final game of the first round.
With Britain’s victory over Colombia, the US is in control of its own destiny. Wins over Canada on Monday and Colombia on Wednesday will send the US into the second round. In this case, the US would have one loss, the UK and Colombia would have at least two losses, and either Canada or Mexico would have two losses – Mexico already has one loss and Canada would lose to the US, plus Canada and Mexico all are still playing. each other, ensuring that one of these teams will suffer a second defeat.
There is a scenario in which the final of the first round on Wednesday between the USA and Colombia is a game in which the winner or goes home. This will require the US to beat Canada on Monday, Colombia to beat Canada on Tuesday and Mexico to beat Great Britain on Tuesday. This is how Pool C, which competes on Wednesday, would look like in this case:
| Team | victories | Losses | Remaining games |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Colombia |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Mexico |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
USA |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Canada |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
3 |
0 |
The winner of the US-Colombia game on Wednesday will finish the pool game with just one loss and will blow his ticket to the second round no matter what happens between Canada and Mexico on Wednesday. This is one of the “easy” scenarios. For the US, it’s simple: win the next two games and they’ll advance to the second round.
Now, if the US lost Monday’s game to Canada, they would have their backs against the wall. If the US loses to Canada on Monday and Colombia beats Canada on Tuesday and Mexico beats Great Britain on Tuesday, this would be the Group C standings that come out on Wednesday:
| Team | victories | Losses | Remaining games |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Colombia |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Mexico |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
Canada |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
USA |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
Great Britain |
1 |
3 |
0 |
The winner of Wednesday’s Canada-Mexico game will advance to the second round, and the US will need to beat Colombia on Wednesday to set up a 2-2 three-team draw between the US, Colombia and losing Canada-Mexico. Only two teams can advance, so how on earth would that work? We’re glad you asked.
3. Possible tie-break
WBC tiebreak rules are simple when it’s a two-team stalemate: the team that wins the head-to-head match has the advantage. WBC tiebreak rules for ties between three or more teams are much more complicated. Our Mike Axisa laid out the following on Sunday to explain the five-team draw in Group A:
Here are the tiebreak rules for three or more teams:
The smallest quotient of the fewest runs allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams.
The lowest quotient of the fewest runs earned allowed divided by the number of defensive outs recorded in games between the tied teams.
Highest average in games in this round between tied teams.
Draw.
Note that in the first tie-break, runs are allowed – no runs count, no differentiated runs, but runs are allowed – and only in games between even teams. The US losing 11 rounds to Mexico on Sunday was potentially devastating, but if Mexico beats Canada on Wednesday, that game won’t matter for tiebreak purposes. The three-team match will feature the United States, Canada and Colombia, not Mexico.
Teams from the USA, Canada and Colombia have not yet played each other, so no such tiebreak odds exist yet. The bottom line is that the US can win the next two games and advance to the second round without a massive tie-break. This is their best course of action. Beat Canada, beat Colombia, reach the quarterfinals.
Source: www.cbssports.com
